Monitoring volcanoes using seismic noise correlations

In this article, we summarize some recent results of measurements of temporal changes of active volcanoes using seismic noise cross-correlations. We first present a novel approach to estimate volcano interior temporal seismic velocity changes. The proposed method allows to measure very small velocity changes (≈ 0.1%) with a time resolution as small as one day. The application of that method to Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (La Réunion Island) shows velocity decreases preceding eruptions. Moreover, velocity changes from noise cross-correlations over 10 years allow to detect transient velocity changes that could be due to long-lasting intrusions of magma without eruptive activity or to pressure buildup associated to the replenishing of the magma reservoir. We also present preliminary results of noise cross-correlation waveform perturbation associated with the occurrence of dike injection and volcanic eruption. We show that such an analysis leads us to locate the areas of dike injection and eruptive fissures at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano. These recent results suggest that monitoring volcanoes using seismic noise correlations should improve our ability to forecast eruptions, their intensity and thus potential environmental impact.     

An Analytical Solution of the Lagrange Equations Valid also for Very Low Eccentricities: Influence of a Central Potential

This paper presents an analytic solution of the equations of motion of an artificial satellite, obtained using non singular elements for eccentricity. The satellite is under the influence of the gravity field of a central body, expanded in spherical harmonics up to an arbitrary degree and order. We discuss in details the solution we give for the components of the eccentricity vector. For each element, we have divided the Lagrange equations into two parts: the first part is integrated exactly, and the second part is integrated with a perturbation method. The complete solution is the sum of the so-called “main” solution and of the so-called “complementary” solution. To test the accuracy of our method, we compare it to numerical integration and to the method developed in Kaula (Theory of Satellite Geodesy, Blaisdell publ. Co., New York. 1966), expressed in classical orbital elements. For eccentricities which are not very small, the two analytical methods are almost equivalent. For low eccentricities, our method is much more accurate.     

Late and middle Pleistocene ungulates dietary diversity in Western Europe indicate variations of Neanderthal paleoenvironments through time and space

Mesowear and microwear on enamel from 763 teeth of middle and late Pleistocene ungulates were analysed to infer the potential of dental wear analysis of faunal remains as a paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic proxy in relation to climatic changes and diversity of vegetation available in the environment. Fossil localities including levels belonging to two glacial and two interglacial stages were selected in Germany, France, and Spain. At a temporal scale, results indicate that the dietary diversity in ungulates is higher during interglacial phases (MIS 5 and 3) than during pleniglacial phases (MIS 8 and 4). Dietary diversity is concluded to be related to climate-driven vegetation changes which during interglacials lead to increased variety of potential food items available to ungulates. At the geographical scale, during interglacials, changes in diet composition are evident along geographical gradients. The corresponding dietary gradients are proposed to be related to climate and vegetation gradients reflecting more arid climates in the Mediterranean area compared to North-Western Europe. Species consistently represented at all localities investigated are Cervus elaphus (Cervidae, Artiodactyla) and Equus ferus (Equidae, Perissodactyla). C. elaphus populations are found to consistently have less abrasive diets than E. ferus populations but dietary traits of both species varied largely, revealing a significant plasticity in the feeding adaptation of both species. Those traits are concluded to be related to differences in vegetation structure at each locality and complement the evidence that ungulates have broader dietary habits than what is usually assumed.     

Relative performance of future altimeter systems and tide gauges in constraining a model of North Sea high-frequency barotropic dynamics

We evaluate in this paper the ability of several altimeter systems, considered separately as well as together with tide gauges, to control the time evolution of a barotropic model of the North Sea shelf. This evaluation is performed in the framework of the particular model errors due to uncertainties in bathymetry. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach is adopted, and observing-systems simulation experiments (OSSEs) are carried out using ensemble spread statistics. The skill criterion for the comparison of observing networks is, therefore, not based on the misfit between two simulations, as done in classic twin experiments, but on the reduction of ensemble variance occurring as a consequence of the assimilation. Future altimeter systems, such as the Wide Swath Ocean Altimeter (WSOA) and satellite constellations, are considered in this work. A single WSOA exhibits, for instance, similar performance as two-nadir satellites in terms of sea-level correction, and is better than three satellites in terms of model velocity control. Generally speaking, the temporal resolution of observations is shown to be of major importance for controlling the model error in these experiments. This result is clearly related to the focus adopted in this study on the specific high-frequency response of the ocean to meteorological forcing. Altimeter systems lack adequate temporal sampling for properly correcting the major part of model error in this context, whereas tide gauges, which provide a much finer time resolution, lead to better global statistical performance. When looking into further detail, tide gauges and altimetry are demonstrated to exhibit an interesting complementary character over the whole shelf, as tide gauge networks make it possible to properly control model error in a ∼100-km coastal band, while high-resolution altimeter systems are more efficient farther from the coast.     

Late Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of eastern Indonesia

This paper presents an internally and globally consistent model of plate evolution in eastern Indonesia from Middle Miocene to Present time. It is centered on the Banda Sea region located in the triple junction area between the Pacific–Philippine, Australia and South–East Asia plates. The geological and geophysical data available from Indonesia were until recently insufficient to define a unique plate tectonic model. In this paper, the new data taken into account clearly restrict the possible interpretations. Owing to a great number of geological, geophysical and geochemical studies, the major plate boundaries (the Sunda–Banda subduction zone to the south, the Tarera–Aiduna Fault zone and the Seram Thrust to the east, and the Sorong Fault zone and Molucca Sea collision zone to the north) are now clearly identified. The age of the major tectonic structures is also better known. Geodetic measurements well constrain the Present time plate kinematics. We also consider the deformation history within eastern Indonesia, where numerous short-lived microplates and their related microcontinents successively accreted to the Asiatic margin. Moreover, magnetic anomalies identification of the North and South Banda Sea basins allows a precise kinematic reconstruction of the back-arc opening. We used the Plates software to test the coherency of our model, presented as a series of 4 plate reconstruction maps from 13 Ma to the present. Finally, the origin of oceanic domains restored by our reconstruction is discussed.     

Tree Species Composition in European Pristine Forests: Comparison of Stand Data to Model Predictions

The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made.     

The influence of CCN spectra and updraft velocities on the validity of the b parameterization of the condensation process

A detailed parcel model of condensational droplet growth, including surface tension and dissolved salts effects, is used for studying the validity of a parameterization based on the simplified droplet growth equation, the b² scheme. In the b² scheme, spectra are derived from the droplet distribution at the activation level, and the liquid water mixing ratio using a translation of the initial spectrum in the r² scale. Spectra derived from the detailed model are thus compared to translated spectra. Four simplified CCN distributions are tested for updraft velocities in the range of 0.5 m/s to 5.0 m/s. It is shown that the b² scheme is suitable for use in cloud models, except when the proportion of large nuclei in the CCN distribution is extremely high.     

Influence of morphological changes on suspended sediment dynamics in a macrotidal estuary: diachronic analysis in the Seine Estuary (France) from 1960 to 2010

Ocean Dynamics - Estuaries are subject to extensive morphological changes through human activities, such as deepening and narrowing via dredging and channelization. The estuary sediment load,...     

The AMANDES tidal model for the Amazon estuary and shelf

The AMANDES project aims to study transports from the Andean mountains to the Atlantic Ocean through the Amazon system. This requires realistic estuarine modelling in this area strongly forced by tides and river discharge. As none of the existing models for this region would fit the actual needs of the project, a specific new generation model has been implemented.The model is based on the hydrodynamic finite element model T-UGOm. In a first step, we limit our investigations to tidal dynamics. As the Amazon estuary is a very shallow macro-tidal area, it is necessary to improve the available bathymetries and to develop a precise bottom friction parametrisation.In this paper, we discuss the implementation of a high resolution regional model. This allows us to develop a precise and accurate tidal model: for instance, the overall root mean square error on complex differences is reduced from 54 cm in a standard model to 27 cm in our best model. Such precise and accurate tidal modelling is a prerequisite for modelling particle transport.