Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors.

Policy relevance

Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as ‘improved cooperation’ were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.     

Galaxy groups at 0.3 ≤z≤ 0.55 – I. Group properties

The evolution of galaxies in groups may have important implications for the evolution of the star formation history of the Universe, since many processes which operate in groups may suppress star formation and the fraction of galaxies in bound groups grows rapidly between   z = 1  and the present day. In this paper, we present an investigation of the properties of galaxies in galaxy groups at intermediate redshift  ( z ∼ 0.4)  . The groups were selected from the Canadian Network for Observational Cosmology Redshift Survey (CNOC2) redshift survey as described by Carlberg et al., with further spectroscopic follow-up undertaken at the Magellan telescope in order to improve the completeness and depth of the sample. We present the data for the individual groups, and find no clear trend in the fraction of passive galaxies with group velocity dispersion and group concentration. We stack the galaxy groups in order to compare the properties of group galaxies with those of field galaxies at the same redshift. The groups contain a larger fraction of passive galaxies than the field, this trend being particularly clear for galaxies brighter than   M _{B J} < −20  in the higher velocity dispersion groups. In addition, we see evidence for an excess of bright passive galaxies in the groups relative to the field. In contrast, the luminosity functions of the star-forming galaxies in the groups and the field are consistent. These trends are qualitatively consistent with the differences between group and field galaxies seen in the local Universe.     

The Aristarchus-Harbinger region of the moon: Surface geology and history from recent remote-sensing observations

The region including the Aristarchus Plateau and Montes Harbinger is probably the most diverse, geologically, of any area of comparble size on the Moon. This part of the northwest quadrant of the lunar near side includes unique dark mantling material; both the densest concentration and the largest of the sinuous rilles; apparent volcanic vents, sinks, and domes; mare materials of various ages and colors; one of the freshest large craters (Aristarchus) with ejecta having unique colors and albedos; and three other large craters in different states of flooding and degradation (krieger, Herodotus, and Prinz). The three best-authenticated lunar transient phenomena were also observed here.This study is based principally on photographic and remote sensing observations made from Earth and Apollo orbiting space craft. Results include (1) delineation of geologic map units and their stratigraphic relationships; (2) discussion of the complex interrelationships between materials of volcanic and impact origin, including the effects of excavation, redistribution and mixing of previously deposited materials by younger impact craters; (3) deduction of physical and chemical properties of certain of the geologic units, based on both the remote-sensing information and on extrapolation of Apollo data to this area; and (4) development of a detailed geologic history of the region, outlining the probable sequence of events that resulted in its present appearance.A primary concern of the investigation has been anomalous red dark mantle on the Plateau. Based on an integration of Earth- and lunar orbit-based data, this layer seems to consist of fine-grained, block-free material containing a relatively large fraction of orange glass. It is probably of pyroclastic origin, laid down at some time during the Imbrian period of mare flooding.     

Lunar color boundaries and their relationship to topographic features: A preliminary survey

By combining UV negatives with IR positives of the full Moon, it is possible to suppress albedo differences and to enhance color differences between various lunar regions. Areas within the lunar maria exhibit the greatest color variations, and many have sharp boundaries. In contrast, the terrae in general show only feeble color variations, although small terra regions situated near or surrounded by maria sometimes display enhanced redness. The mare color boundaries in some cases coincide with the edges of clear-cut lava flows, the bluer material overlying the redder. One wedge-shaped area of bluer material corresponds with a prominent sinuous rille, the rille source being situated precisely in the point of the wedge. This area has obliterated portions of two ray systems, showing that the bluer material was deposited later than both the surrounding redder material and the ray material. On the other hand, rays from the crater Olbers A cross both colored areas impartially. Other examples of ray obliteration by bluer deposits are found elsewhere. From Apollo and Surveyor analyses, it is found that there is an apparent correlation between degree of blueness and titanium content of the surface materials. The following conclusions may be drawn:

1. The various maria were deposited over considerable lengths of time; this does not support the fusion-through-impact hypothesis.
2. The bluer materials, which appear to be those of high Ti content, are the more recent.
3. The hypothesis that sinuous rilles are lava drainage channels is supported.
4. The terrae covered by this study are mostly monotonous, suggesting constant composition, but a few anomalously red isolated regions may be of substantially different composition.