‘Now that the dust has settled…’ the impacts of Icelandic volcanic eruptions

Volcanic eruptions generate hazards, are potent agents of landscape change and have the power to alter global climate. Recent events in Iceland have emphasised the multi‐scale and trans‐boundary nature of hazards from ice‐volcano interactions and have highlighted their local, national and international impacts. Prompted by these recent events, this article reviews a selection of Icelandic volcanic eruptions in order to demonstrate the diversity of hazards and impacts generated by Icelandic volcanic activity. Some of the challenges associated with managing risks from Icelandic volcanic hazards are discussed and future prospects are outlined.     

Policy and practice in karst landscape protection: Bohol, the Philippines

The karst landscape in the interior of the Philippines' Bohol Province represents one of the world's premier kegelkarst (cone karst) environments. Government efforts to protect some of this karst, exemplified by the establishment of the Rajah Sikatuna National Park and the Chocolate Hills Natural Monument, have proven to be significant catalysts of social conflict. In Bohol there is a long history of traditional land tenure, which has recently been supplanted by a Westernized model. Protected area establishment is a response to deforestation, agricultural exploitation and uncontrolled quarrying. However, the imposition of protective legislation to prevent further degradation has disenfranchized and marginalized many local farmers and residents. The conflict between the obligation of the State to ensure environmental protection and the perceived property rights of landowners and farmers has provoked an escalation in civil unrest and armed conflict.     

Stratigraphy,structure and geochronology of ore leads in the Matsitama Schist belt of Northern Botswana

The Matsitama schist belt in northeastern Botswana comprises an area of metasediments, notably quartzites, limestones, shales and amphibolites that are bounded by granites and gneisses. The belt lies southwest of the Rhodesian cration and north of the Limpopo mobile belt.Stratigraphic, structural and lead isotopic evidence indicates that the Matsitama metasediments are equivalent to the Shashi metasediments in the Limpopo belt. There is strong evidence that the Matsitama and Shashi metasediments stratigraphically underlie volcanic rocks of the Tati belt which have been correlated with Archaean schist belts of about 2700 Ma of Rhodesia. Therefore, the Matsitama and Shashi rocks are at least as old as the schist belts of the Rhodesian craton and may represent a shallow-water facies that occurs only in the Limpopo area.There is no structural evidence that the Matsitama and Shashi metasediments were deposited unconformably on basement rocks, although the presence of gneiss, amphibolite and ironstone pebbles in a Matsitama conglomerate, as well as the presence of orthoquartzites, shows the existence of a basement source region. However, the surrounding granites intrude the Matsitama and Shashi metasediments and all underwent several deformation phases.The structural history of the Matsitama rocks can be described in terms of five phases of deformation. The main cleavage-producing deformation phase, F₂, folded the rocks into a major synform and intensely deformed them. Before this, however, the rocks had been folded and thrust so that part of the succession shows downward-facing F₂ structures and there are possibly repetitions of the stratigraphy due to imbrication. Structures of the F₃ and F₄ phases fold the main cleavage but locally are sufficiently intense to modify the shape of the finite strain ellipsoid. There is a major ductile shear zone of F₄ age, south of which F₄ folds are tight, while to the north, F₄ deformation is negligible. All of these structures can be correlated with deformation phases in the Tati schist belt to the east and in the northern part of the Limpopo mobile belt.Lead isotope evidence suggests that mineralization in the Matsitama metasediments occurred at least 2200 Ma ago, and that leads from Dihudi/Thakadu and Messina, in the centre of the Limpopo belt, underwent a two-stage history of events at 2600–2700 Ma and 2000–2100 Ma ago, agreeing with other geochronological evidence. The leads from Matsitama and Messina are isotopically distinct from leads from the Rhodesian schist belts, which show evidence of transfer to the crust some 3500 Ma ago. The absence of this 3500 Ma-old lead from the Matsitama and Messina environments may indicate different crustal conditions and possibly the absence of the Rhodesian-type early basement.     

A Plan to Push Limits? Investigating the ecologically sustainable development dimensions of Melbourne's Central Region sustainable water strategy

Drawing upon theory from the field of urban political ecology, we analyse a major strategic water plan for Melbourne, Australia—the Sustainable water strategy for the Central Region, published in 2006. We assess the extent to which the strategy identified and addressed ecological sustainability in terms of: cultural frames; ecological context; social equity; and engagement processes. We identify that the strategy's framing of water was largely separate from its social and ecological context. This framing resulted in the importance of issues such as environmental flows, social equity and cultural values being diminished, thus avoiding the inevitable confrontation with environmental limits needed to ensure long-term ecological sustainability. Our analysis shows that the discursive dominance of economics limited the response to persuasive scientific arguments for greater ecological consideration in the strategy. Our findings suggest that broadening engagement with the diverse ways in which water is valued is likely to contribute to more equitable and ecologically sustainable water futures.     

Mycological evidence of coprophagy from the feces of an Alaskan Late Glacial mammoth

Dung from a mammoth was preserved under frozen conditions in Alaska. The mammoth lived during the early part of the Late Glacial interstadial (ca 12,300 BP). Microfossils, macroremains and ancient DNA from the dung were studied and the chemical composition was determined to reconstruct both the paleoenvironment and paleobiology of this mammoth. Pollen spectra are dominated by Poaceae, Artemisia and other light-demanding taxa, indicating an open, treeless landscape (‘mammoth steppe’). Fruits and seeds support this conclusion. The dung consists mainly of cyperaceous stems and leaves, with a minor component of vegetative remains of Poaceae. Analyses of fragments of the plastid rbcL gene and trnL intron and nrITS1 region, amplified from DNA extracted from the dung, supplemented the microscopic identifications. Many fruit bodies with ascospores of the coprophilous fungus Podospora conica were found inside the dung ball, indicating that the mammoth had eaten dung. The absence of bile acids points to mammoth dung. This is the second time that evidence for coprophagy of mammoths has been derived from the presence of fruit bodies of coprophilous fungi in frozen dung. Coprophagy might well have been a common habit of mammoths. Therefore, we strongly recommend that particular attention should be given to fungal remains in future fossil dung studies.     

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Assessing the institutional capacity to adapt to climate change: a case study in the Cambodian health and water sectors

Institutional capacity is an important element for climate change adaptation (CCA) and the development of such capacity is a great challenge in a Least Developed Country like Cambodia where resources are limited. An important first step to increasing capacity is via an understanding of the level of existing capacity; future priorities can then be subsequently identified. This study aimed to assess the capacity of organizations to implement climate change activities in Cambodia in order to provide such a basis for building capacity. Four elements of capacity were investigated in this research: (1) financial resources, (2) cooperation and coordination of stakeholders, (3) availability and quality of information on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and (4) the level of understanding of climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The data were collected through semistructured interviews with a wide range of government and non-government informants across a number of sectors. Results of the study showed that informants perceived capacity for CCA to be very constrained, especially in terms of financial resources and cooperation, and addressing these factors was ranked as the highest climate change capacity priority. Institutional capacity constraints were considered to relate more generally to weak governance of CCA. In light of our research findings, the absence of local higher education institutions in CCA activities should be addressed. The support of such institutions would provide an important mechanism to progress both capacity development as well as partnerships and coordination between different types of organizations and relevant sectors.

Policy relevance

Capacity for CCA within Cambodian health and water sectors was perceived to be very constrained across a range of interdependent factors. Increasing funding was ranked as the highest priority for building capacity for CCA; however, governance factors such as ‘improved cooperation’ were also ranked highly. Improving stakeholders' awareness of the availability of adaptation funds and resources, and their responsiveness to funding criteria, is an important implication of our research, as is improving the mobilization of local resources and the private sector. To address the issue of weak cooperation among stakeholders, improving the coordination function of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) regarding stakeholder engagement and capacity building is crucial. Ensuring that CCA activities are based on sound information and knowledge from across different disciplines and, importantly, include the perspectives of vulnerable people themselves, ultimately underpins and supports the realization of the above priorities.