Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 1: recent climate simulation (1971–2000)

We present an analysis of a high resolution multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. Mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. The mother intermediate resolution model domain encompasses the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing while the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans the 30-year period of January 1971 through December 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for the mother domain are provided from ECHO-G fields based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the climatological and regional characteristics of surface variables, although some persistent biases are present. Main results are as follows: (1) The RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine-scale structure of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it shows a systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution of simulated daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the summer season, however, daily variability is underestimated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly showing typical precipitation patterns that occur on the northwestern areas of Japan during the winter monsoon. Although summer precipitation is underestimated, area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both in terms of seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) The model shows a tendency to overestimate the number of precipitation days and to underestimate the precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals that the model captures the strength of the annual cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the simulated period.     

Regional Nested Model Simulations of Present Day and 2 × CO2 Climate over the Central Plains of the U.S.

A nested regional climate model is used to generate a scenario of climate change over the MINK region (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) due to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO₂) for use in agricultural impact assessment studies. Five-year long present day (control) and 2 × CO₂ simulations are completed at a horizontal grid point spacing of 50 km. Monthly and seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature over the MINK region are reproduced well by the model in the control run, except for an underestimation of both variables during the spring months. The performance of the nested model in the control run is greatly improved compared to a similar experiment performed with a previous version of the nested modeling system by Giorgi et al. (1994). The nested model generally improves the simulation of spatial precipitation patterns compared to the driving general circulation model (GCM), especially during the summer. Seasonal surface warming of 4 to 6 K and seasonal precipitation increases of 6 to 24% are simulated in 2 × CO₂ conditions. The control run temperature biases are smaller than the simulated changes in all seasons, while the precipitation biases are of the same order of magnitude as the simulated changes. Although the large scale patterns of change in the driving GCM and nested RegCM model are similar, significant differences between the models, and substantial spatial variability, occur within the MINK region.     

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.     

CO2增加引起的温室效应对我国沿海台风影响的数值模拟试验

使用RegCM2区域气候模式单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海—气耦合模式，进行了CO2加倍情况下影响中国的台风变化的数值试验研究。首先分析了区域模式对中国气候的模拟能力，结果表明，区域模式由于具有较高的分辨率，因而对中国区域地面气温和降水的模拟效果较全球模式有了较大提高。随后就温室效应对台风的影响情况进行了分析，发现计算区域内台风生成的个数将有一定增加，而登陆我国的台风数目会有明显增加；同时台风的路径将以由南向北移动，在华南登陆影响我国的方式为主。     

Experimental Assessment of the Stress–Strain Behaviour of Leighton Buzzard Sand for the Calibration of a Constitutive Model

A number of constitutive models are nowadays implemented in numerical codes which simulate the stress–strain behaviour of soil from very small to large strain. In this paper, the mechanical behaviour of Leighton Buzzard sand (grade E), used worldwide for physical modelling, has been thoroughly characterized by laboratory testing along several stress paths. Tests were aimed at calibrating a constitutive model, that allows considering stiffness nonlinearities in a wide range of strains, in the framework of isotropically hardening plasticity. As a validation, the results of dynamic centrifuge tests on a layer of the same sand were compared with finite element predictions.     

Some limitations in using <Superscript>222</Superscript>Rn to assess river–groundwater interactions: the case of Castel di Sangro alluvial plain (central Italy)

²²²Rn was used to assess river–groundwater interactions within Castel di Sangro alluvial aquifer (Italy). The effectiveness of results obtained through this indicator was verified by also analyzing δ¹⁸O, major ions and temperature in both surface and groundwater, and carrying out piezometric head monitoring and discharge measurements. Hydrogeological investigations suggested that the river infiltrates into the aquifer in the south-eastern aquifer portion, while groundwater discharges into the river in the north-eastern portion. The latter phenomenon is supported by ²²²Rn data. Nevertheless, flow-through conditions cause the modelled discharge along this river reach, estimated by ²²²Rn data in a degassing-corrected two-component mixing model, to be greater than the measured discharge. Concerning river infiltration into the aquifer, δ¹⁸O, major ions and temperature data show that the river contribution is negligible in terms of aquifer recharge. Thus, the observed increase in ²²²Rn concentration in that portion of the aquifer is due to the enrichment process caused by infiltration of rainwater (²²²Rn free) which flows from the local divide area. Hence, in the study site, the use of only ²²²Rn to predict river–groundwater interactions causes some estimation inaccuracies and it must be coupled with other hydrochemical and hydrogeological parameters to gain a thorough understanding of such interactions.     

Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.     

The pressure-induced ringwoodite to Mg-perovskite and periclase post-spinel phase transition: a Bader’s topological analysis of the ab initio electron densities

In order to characterize the pressure-induced decomposition of ringwoodite (γ-Mg₂SiO₄), the topological analysis of the electron density ρ(r), based upon the theory of atoms in molecules (AIM) developed by Bader in the framework of the catastrophe theory, has been performed. Calculations have been carried out by means of the ab initio CRYSTAL09 code at the HF/DFT level, using Hamiltonians based on the Becke- LYP scheme containing hybrid Hartree–Fock/density functional exchange–correlation terms. The equation of state at 0 K has been constructed for the three phases involved in the post-spinel phase transition (ringwoodite → Mg-perovskite + periclase) occurring at the transition zone–lower mantel boundary. The topological results show that the decomposition of the ringwoodite at high pressures is caused by a conflict catastrophe. Furthermore, topological evidences of the central role played by the oxygen atoms to facilitate the pressure-induced ringwoodite decomposition and the subsequent phase transition have been noticed.     

The radiation environment in a low earth orbit:the case of BeppoSAX

Low-inclination, low altitude Earth orbits (LEO) are of increasing importance for astrophysical satellites, due to their low background environment. Here, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is the region with the highest amount of radiation. We study the radiation environment in a LEO (500–600 km altitude, 4^° inclination) through the particle background measured by the Particle Monitor (PM) experiment onboard the BeppoSAX satellite, between 1996 and 2002. Using time series of particle count rates measured by PM we construct intensity maps and derive SAA passage times and fluences. The low-latitude SAA regions are found to have an intensity strongly decreasing with altitude and dependent on the magnetic rigidity. The SAA extent, westward drift and strength vs altitude is shown.