Simulation of the Indian monsoon using the RegCM3–ROMS regional coupled model

A regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model was developed to study the role of air–sea interactions in the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The coupled model includes the regional climate model (RegCM3) as atmospheric component and the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) as oceanic component. The two-way coupled model system exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model and surface wind stress and energy fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model. The coupled model is run for four years 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2003 and the results are compared with observations and atmosphere-only model runs employing Reynolds SSTs as lower boundary condition. It is found that the coupled model captures the main features of the Indian monsoon and simulates a substantially more realistic spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall compared to the uncoupled atmosphere-only model. The intraseasonal oscillations are also better simulated in the coupled model compared to the atmosphere-only model. These improvements are due to a better representation of the feedbacks between the SST and convection and highlight the importance of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Indian monsoon.     

全球变暖对中国区域积雪变化影响的数值模拟

对20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来积雪变化进行了分析.检验了模式对当代(1961-1990年)积雪日数、积雪量、积雪开始和结束时间的模拟,结果表明:与观测相比,模式对这些变量均有较好的模拟能力,但模拟的积雪日数和积雪量偏多,积雪开始时间偏早,结束日期偏晚.21世纪末(2071-2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国大部分地区积雪日数和积雪量将减少;积雪开始时间推后,结束时间提前,但在各个地区表现也有所不同,并在个别地区出现相反的变化.将中国区域分为东北、西北、青藏高原3个分区,结果显示:各分区平均积雪量均为减少,积雪开始时间推后,而积雪结束时间则都将提前,其中,青藏高原地区的变化最为显著.     

A search for the progenitors of two Type Ia Supernovae in NGC 1316

Recent evidence of a young progenitor population for many Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) raises the possibility that evolved intermediate-mass progenitor stars may be detected in pre-explosion images. NGC 1316, a radio galaxy in the Fornax cluster, is a prolific producer of SNe Ia, with four detected since 1980. We analyse Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) pre-explosion images of the sites of two of the SNe Ia that exploded in this galaxy, SN2006dd (a normal Type Ia) and SN2006mr (likely a subluminous, 1991bg-like, SN Ia). Astrometric positions are obtained from optical and near-infrared ground-based images of the events. We find no candidate point sources at either location, and set upper limits on the flux in B, V and I from any such progenitors. We also estimate the amount of extinction that could be present, based on analysis of the surface-brightness inhomogeneities in the HST images themselves. At the distance of NGC 1316, the limits correspond to absolute magnitudes of  ∼−5.5, −5.4  and −6.0 mag in   M _B , M _V   and   M _I   , respectively. Comparison to stellar evolution models argues against the presence at the supernova sites, 3 yr prior to the explosion, of normal stars with initial masses  ≳6 M_⊙  at the tip of their asymptotic-giant branch (AGB) evolution, young post-AGB stars that had initial masses  ≳4 M_⊙  and post-red giant stars of initial masses  ≳9 M_⊙  .     

Exhumation of the Dora Maira ultrahigh‐pressure unit by buoyant uprise within a low‐viscosity mantle oblique‐slip shear zone

The Brossasco‐Isasca subunit (BIU) of the Dora Maira massif is currently the only known continental crustal ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) unit in the Western Alps. The peak pressure/temperature conditions are 3.5–4.5 GPa/~730 °C; exhumation from ~3.5 GPa to ~1 GPa occurred within 2.2 ± 1.8 Ma, but the exhumation mechanism is incompletely understood. We present a conceptual model for the buoyancy‐driven exhumation of the BIU inside a low‐viscosity, dense mantle shear zone weakened by increased strain rates due to simultaneous strike‐slip and subduction (oblique‐slip) of the European plate. Two‐dimensional thermo‐mechanical models simulate such a buoyant uprise of an ellipse inside an inclined layer. Simulations (i) show the feasibility of the conceptual model, (ii) fit the pressure/temperature/time record and (iii) constrain effective viscosities. The model is compatible with the (i) small volume of continental crustal UHP rock in the Western Alps, (ii) minor erosion during exhumation and (iii) strike‐slip deformation during the exhumation period.     

Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a^?1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra‐high‐resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea‐level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea‐level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.     

Magnetic features of the magmatic intrusion that occurred in the 2007 eruption at Stromboli Island (Italy)

Significant changes in the local magnetic field marked the resumption of eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano on February 27, 2007. After differential magnetic fields were obtained by filtering out external noise using adaptive filters and seasonal thermal noise using temperature data, we identified step-like changes of 1–4 nT coincident with the opening of eruptive fissures in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco. The magnetic variations detected at two stations are closely related to the propagation of a shallow NE–SW magmatic intrusion extending beyond the summit craters area. These observations are consistent with those calculated using piezomagnetic models in which stress-induced changes in rock magnetization are produced by the magmatic intrusion. No significant magnetic changes were observed when the first fractures opened along the NE crater rim. Indeed, the stress-induced magnetization caused by this magmatic activity is expected to be too low because of the structural weakness and/or thermal state of the summit area. The continuous long-term decay characterizing the post-eruptive magnetic pattern can be related to a time-dependent relaxation process. A Maxwell rheology was assumed and the temporal evolution of the piezomagnetic field was evaluated. This allowed us to estimate the rheological properties of the medium; in particular, an average viscosity ranging between 10¹⁶ and 10¹⁷ Pa⋅s was a relaxation time τ of about 38 days.     

Climate Change over China in the 21st Century as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0

Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.     

On the stability of magmatic cordierite and new thermobarometric equations for cordierite-saturated liquids

In this work, we have reviewed a large compositional dataset (571 analyses) for natural and experimental glasses to understand the physico-chemical and compositional conditions of magmatic cordierite crystallization. Cordierite crystallizes in peraluminous liquids (A/CNK ≥1) at temperatures ≥750 °C, pressures ≤700 MPa, variable H₂O activity (0.1–1.0) and relatively low fO₂ conditions (≤NNO ? 0.5). In addition to A/CNK ratio ≥1, a required condition for cordierite crystallization is a Si + Al cation value of the rhyolite liquid of 4 p8O (i.e. calculated on the 8 oxygen anhydrous basis), which is consistent with low Fe³⁺ contents and the absence or low content of non-bridging oxygens (NBO). This geochemical condition is strongly supported by the rare, if not unique, structure of cordierite where the tetrahedral framework is composed almost exclusively of Si and Al cations the sum of which is equal to 4 p8O [i.e. (Mg,Fe)_8/9Al_16/9Si_20/9O₈], indicating that aluminium (and cordierite) saturation is limited by rhyolite liquids with Al = 4 ? Si. Indeed, synthetic or natural systems with Al > 4 ? Si always show metastable glass-in-glass separation or crystallization of refractory minerals such as corundum (Al_16/3O₈) and aluminosilicates (Al_16/5Si_8/5O₈). Multivariate regression analyses of literature data for experimental glasses coexisting with magmatic cordierite produced two empirical equations to independently calculate the T (±13 °C; ME, maximum error = 29 °C) and P (±16 %; ME% = 27 %) conditions of cordierite saturation. The greatest influence on the two equations is exerted by H₂O_melt and Al concentrations, respectively. Testing of these equations with other thermobarometric constraints (e.g. feldspar-liquid, GASP, Grt–Bt and Grt–Crd equilibria) and thermodynamic models (NCKFMASHTO and NCKFMASH systems) was successfully performed for Crd-bearing rhyolites and residual enclaves from San Vincenzo (Tuscany, Italy), Morococala Field (Bolivia) and El Hoyazo (Spain). The reliability of each calculated P–T pair was graphically evaluated using the minimum and maximum P–T–H₂O relationships for peraluminous rhyolite liquids modified after the metaluminous relationships in this work. Both P–T calculations and checking can be easily performed with the attached user-friendly spreadsheet (i.e. Crd-sat_TB).     

Numerical simulations of the 1963 Vajont landslide, Italy: application of 1D Lagrangian modelling

On 9 October 1963, a rock mass of about 250 millions m³, with a front width of 1,850 m, a mean thickness of about 200 m and a length of 350–400 m, detached from Mt Toc, on the left side of the Vajont valley, NE Italy, and collapsed into the reservoir created by a 261 m high dam. About 40 millions m³ of water was displaced, climbed up 200 m on the opposite side and then destroyed the little town of Longarone causing more than 2,000 casualties. This event is well known and was the object of numerous technical and scientific studies, especially in the two decades following the disaster. This work proposes a re-examination of the matter, focusing on the numerical modelling of the landslide, and is carried out by using a 1D numerical code based on a Lagrangian approach. The model is properly conceived for cases with slide length prevailing on width. When the slide width is comparable or prevailing on length, as is the case of the Vajont slide, the mass is first partitioned into a number of longitudinal long and narrow sub-slides. The Vajont mass was subdivided into six strips and the motion of each sub-slide was computed. The knowledge of the final deposit position allowed us to constrain the value of some relevant parameters characterizing the slide motion, the most interesting being the friction coefficient μ, that we varied in order to obtain the best-fit between calculated and observed deposits. Taking into account the additional constraint that all sub-slides move with the same or at least with similar speed, and introducing a global misfit based on deposit and velocity misfits, we were able to show that solutions minimizing the global misfit exhibit a relevant difference between the basal friction coefficients of the western and of the eastern sides of the sliding surface, with the former being significantly smaller (0.14–0.16) than the latter (0.32–0.34).