Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

Real-time cycle slip detection in triple-frequency GNSS

The modernization of the global positioning system and the advent of the European project Galileo will lead to a multifrequency global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The presence of new frequencies introduces more degrees of freedom in the GNSS data combination. We define linear combinations of GNSS observations with the aim to detect and correct cycle slips in real time. In particular, the detection is based on five geometry-free linear combinations used in three cascading steps. Most of the jumps are detected in the first step using three minimum-noise combinations of phase and code observations. The remaining jumps with very small amplitude are detected in the other two steps by means of two-tailored linear combinations of phase observations. Once the epoch of the slip has been detected, its amplitude is estimated using other linear combinations of phase observations. These combinations are defined with the aim of discriminating between the possible combinations of jump amplitudes in the three carriers. The method has been tested on simulated data and 1-second triple-frequency undifferenced GPS data coming from a friendly multipath environment. Results show that the proposed method is able to detect and repair all combinations of cycle slips in the three carriers.     

Landform instability and land-use dynamics in tropical high mountains, Central Mexico

This investigation is an analysis of the influence of landform instability on the distribution of land-use dynamics in a hydrographical basin, located in the Mexican Volcanic Belt mountain range (central Mexico), currently affected by substantial changes in land use and deforestation. A landform map was produced, in addition to seven attribute maps - altimetry, drainage density, slope, relief energy, potential erosion, geology and tectonics - which were considered as factors for determining landform instability through Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis. Likewise, the direction and rhythm of land-use dynamics were analyzed in four dates - between 1976 and 2000 - and cross tabulations were made between them, in order to analyze the trends and processes of land-use dynamics. Afterwards, the databases obtained were cross tabulated with the landform variables to derive areas, percentages and correlation indices. In the study area, high-instability landforms are associated with most ancient volcanic and sedimentary landforms, where high altitude, drainage density, slope and potential to develop gravitational and fluvial processes are the major factors favouring a land-use pattern, dominated by the conservation of extensive forest land, abandonment of human land use and regeneration of disturbed areas. In contrast, low-instability landforms correspond to alluvial plains and lava hills covered by pyroclasts, where low potential erosion to develop fluvial processes, added to water and soil availability and accessibility, have favoured a land-use pattern dominated by the expansion of agroforestry plantations and human settlements, showing a marked trend towards either intensification or permanence of the current land use and with little abandonment and regeneration.     

A New Combined Assessment of Mixed Uncertainty in Spatial Models: Conceptualization and Implementation

Uncertainty quantification is not often performed in spatial modeling applications, especially when there is a mixture of probabilistic and non‐probabilistic uncertainties. Furthermore, the effect of positional uncertainty is often not assessed, despite its relevance to geographical applications. Although there has been much work in investigating the aforementioned types of uncertainty in isolation, combined approaches have not been much researched. This has resulted in a lack of tools for conducting mixed uncertainty analyses that include positional uncertainty. This research addresses the issue by first presenting a new, flexible, simulation‐oriented conceptualization of positional uncertainty in geographic objects called F‐Objects. F‐Objects accommodates various representations of uncertainty, while remaining conceptually simple. Second, a new Python‐based framework is introduced, termed Wiggly and capable of conducting mixed uncertainty propagation using fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS). FMCS combines both traditional Monte Carlo with fuzzy analysis in a so‐called hybrid approach. F‐Objects is implemented within the Wiggly framework, resulting in a tool capable of considering any combination of: (1) probabilistic variables; (2) fuzzy variables; and (3) positional uncertainty of objects (probabilistic/fuzzy). Finally, a realistic GIS‐based groundwater contamination problem demonstrates how F‐Objects and Wiggly can be used to assess the effect of positional uncertainty.     

Patterns of rare earth and other trace elements in different size fractions of clays of Campanian–Maastrichtian deposits from the Portuguese western margin (Aveiro and Taveiro Formations)

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian) Taveiro and Aveiro Formations belong to the northern sector of the Lusitanian basin (Portuguese western margin). The Taveiro Formation was deposited in alluvial fans, including mud flow beds, lakes and sinuous rivers. The Aveiro Formation was deposited in a flat region with low hydrodynamics channels, with the formation of a barrier island-tidal system. The reconstruction of this sedimentary basin may be difficult due to its complex architecture. This work aims a methodology to be used in the reconstruction of Cretaceous sedimentary environments of the Lusitanian basin, through the establishment of geochemical patterns of different size fractions of those deposits. Chemical analysis was performed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and the mineralogical composition obtained by X-ray diffractometry (XRD). The whole rock and different size fractions (? ≥ 125 μm, 63–125 μm, 20–63 μm, 2–20 μm and ? < 2 μm) of selected samples were studied aiming the rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements distribution and its correlation with the grain size and mineralogy.The results obtained for the studied Cretaceous sediments showed that REE patterns and other trace elements distribution in the different size fractions may be used as a tool to differentiate deposits within and between sedimentary formations. Within the Taveiro Formation, REE are concentrated in the silt fractions (20–63 μm and 2–20 μm) of the Reveles deposit, and in the clay size fraction of S. Pedro deposit, which is richer in kaolinite. The 1st transition elements, particularly Zn, are correlated with the presence of smectite in the clay fraction of Reveles deposit. In the sand and silt size fractions (>2 μm) of samples from Taveiro Formation correlations were found between: Ga and 1st transition elements, and phyllosilicates; Cs and mica; and Rb and Ba, and K–feldspars.The Bustos deposit (Aveiro Formation) samples are very fine-grained and with a high proportion of the fine silt fraction where REE are concentrated, especially the heavy ones. Incorporation of MREE, Co and U in carbonates of the coarser fraction appears to occur. The abundances of the 1st transition elements, Ga and As, are correlated with phyllosilicates.Significant differences were found in the trace elements patterns of the various analysed size fractions of the Lusitanian basin of Cretaceous sediments, between and even within formations, which can be used as a methodological approach for a fine paleogeographic reconstruction.     

Evolution of fluids associated with metasedimentary sequences from Chaves (North Portugal)

In order to identify and characterise fluids associated with metamorphic rocks from the Chaves region (North Portugal), fluid inclusions were studied in quartz veinlets, concordant with the main foliation, in graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies from areas with distinct metamorphic grade. The study indicates multiple fluid circulation events with a variety of compositions, broadly within the C–H–O–N–salt system. Primary fluid inclusions in quartz contain low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids that were trapped near the peak of regional metamorphism, which occurred during or immediately after D2. The calculated P–T conditions for the western area of Chaves (CW) is P=300–350 MPa and T500 °C, and for the eastern area (CE), P=200–250 MPa and T=400–450 °C. A first generation of secondary fluid inclusions is restricted to discrete cracks at the grain boundaries of quartz and consists of low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids. P–T conditions from the fluid inclusions indicate that they were trapped during a thermal event, probably related with the emplacement of the two-mica granites.

A second generation of secondary inclusions occurs in intergranular fractures and is characterised by two types of aqueous inclusions. One type is a low salinity, H₂O–NaCl fluid and the second consists of a high salinity, H₂O–NaCl–CaCl₂ fluid. These fluid inclusions are not related to the metamorphic process and have been trapped after D3 at relatively low P (hydrostatic)–T conditions (P<100 MPa and T<300 °C).

Both the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids in quartz from the graphitic-rich lithologies and the later H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl carbonic fluid in quartz from graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies seem to have a common origin and evolution. They have low salinity, probably resulting from connate waters that were diluted by the water released from mineral dehydration during metamorphism. Their main component is water, but the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids are enriched in CH₄ due to interaction with the C-rich host rocks.

From the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl to the later aqueous–carbonic H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids, there is an enrichment in CO₂ that is more significant for the fluids associated with nongraphitic-rich lithologies.

The aqueous–carbonic fluids, enriched in H₂O and CH₄, are primarily associated with graphitic-rich lithologies. However, the aqueous–carbonic CO₂-rich fluids were found in both graphitic and nongraphitic-rich units from both the CW and CE studied areas, which are of medium and low metamorphic grade, respectively.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.