Local mobility and the spatial dynamics of measles in a rural area of Kenya

Population mobility at different scales is important in the analysis of contagious diseases. The role of local mobility among young children is related to spatial and temporal patterns of measles in part of rural Kenya. The dynamics of measles are examined over a period of 3 1/2 years, during which there were two epidemics; the path of the second of these epidemics is studied, using a spatial averaging technique (the centroid). Limited local mobility of children under the age of five, related to low levels of susceptibility provides a probable explanation of the slow diffusion of measles epidemics.This paper is reprinted from Rural Africana, Spring 1981, with the kind permission of the Editors.     

Simulating the Background Noise in the LEGRI CZT Detectors

A Monte-Carlo model of the MINISAT 01 satellite has been built. Thismodel, based on the GEANT software suite, is used to study the backgroundnoise induced in the cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) in the LEGRI detector.We find that the background noise count rate at the poles is 50%higher than at the equator. This increase is due to the effects of geomagneticrigidity cut-off. We also simulate the effects of passages through theSouth Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) with simulations showing an increase of 0.5 counts cm^-2 sec^-1 after the SAA, in good agreement withobservational data.     

Impact of land-atmospheric coupling in CFSv2 on drought prediction

Recent summers in the United States have been plagued by intense droughts that have caused significant damage to crops and have had a large impact on society. The ability to forecasts such events would allow for preparations that could help reduce the impact on society. Coupled land–atmosphere–ocean models were created to provide such forecasts but there are large uncertainties associated with their predictions. The predictive skill of these models is particularly low during the convective season due to the weaker connections with the oceans and an increase in the land–atmosphere interactions. To better understand the degradation of forecasts skill during the summer months and its connection to the land–atmosphere interactions we analyze National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in terms of its climatological land–atmosphere interactions. To do this we use a recently developed classification of land–atmosphere interactions and other diagnostic variables to compare the reanalysis from the Climate Forecast System (CFSR) with CFSv2 re-forecasts (CFSRR) over the period 1982–2009. Coupling in the CFSRR tends toward the wet coupling regime for most areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Although the specific mechanism driving CFSRR to wet coupling state varies by region, the overall cause is enhanced vegetation rooting depth, originally implemented to address a near-surface warm bias in CFSR. The long-term tendency to wet coupling precludes the forecast model from consistently predicting and maintaining drought over the continental US.     

Improved time-delay estimates of underwater acoustic signals usingbeamforming and prefiltering techniques

Passive sonar systems that localize broadband sources of acoustic energy estimate the difference in arrival times (or time delays) of an acoustic wavefront at spatially separated hydrophones, The output amplitudes from a given pair of hydrophones are cross-correlated, and an estimate of the time delay is given by the time lag that maximizes the cross correlation function. Often the time-delay estimates are corrupted by the presence of noise. By replacing each of the omnidirectional hydrophones with an array of hydrophones, and then cross-correlating the beamformed outputs of the arrays, the author shows that the effect of noise on the time-delay estimation process is reduced greatly. Both conventional and adaptive beamforming methods are implemented in the frequency domain and the advantages of array beamforming (prior to cross-correlation) are highlighted using both simulated and real noise-field data. Further improvement in the performance of the broadband cross-correlation processor occurs when various prefiltering algorithms are invoked     

Laboratory investigation of the ionospheric O2+(X2πg, v ≠ 0) reaction with NO

Laboratory measurements of the reaction of O₂⁺ with NO from thermal energy to 0.6 eV in an Ar buffered flow drift tube agree with similar measurements made earlier in the same drift tube with He buffer. Since the O₂⁺ ions are substantially vibrationally excited in Ar and not in He it follows that the reaction is not enhanced by vibrational excitation of the O₂⁺.     

THE CHEMISTRY AND MINERALOGY OF THE HOMEWOOD,MANITOBA, METEORITE

The Homewood meteorite is a slightly weathered find of 325 grams discovered in 1970 about 64 km southwest of Winnipeg, Manitoba. It consists of olivine (Fa_25.4; 43.8 normative wt. percent), orthopyroxene (Fs_23.3; 28.5 percent), kamacite and taenite (7.5 percent), troilite (5.6 percent), maskelynite (8.3 percent), chromite (1.0 percent), whitlockite (0.7 percent) and minor patchy Ca pyroxene. Bulk chemical analysis yielded Fe_total 21.60 wt. percent, Fe/SiO₂0.55, SiO₂/MgO 1.53 and Fe^O/Fe_total 0.29. Barred olivine, radiating pyroxene and porphyritic chondrules, all with ill-defined outlines, occur in the meteorite. Most chemical and mineralogical features characterize the Homewood meteorite as an L6 (hypersthene) chondrite. The presence of maskelynite, the undulatory extinction, extensive fracturing and pervasive mosaicism of olivine, and the poor definition of chondrule outlines suggest that the Homewood meteorite has been shocked in the range of 300–350 kbar.