Impacts of Spatial Partitioning in Hydroecological Models: Predicting Grassland Productivity with RHESSys

Environmental models constructed with a spatial domain require choices about the representation of space. Decisions in the adaptation of a spatial data model can have significant consequences on the ability to predict environmental function as a result of changes to levels of aggregation of input parameters and scaling issues in the processes being modelled. In some cases, it is possible to construct a systematic framework to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions using different spatial models; in other cases, the realm of possibilities plus the complexity of the environmental model in question may inhibit numeric uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate a range of potential spatial data models to parameterize a landscape‐level hydroecological model (RHESSys). The effects of data model choice are illustrated, both in terms of input parameter distributions and resulting ecophysiological predictions. Predicted productivity varied widely, as a function of both the number of modelling units, and of arbitrary decisions such as the origin of a raster grid. It is therefore important to use as much information about the modelled environment as possible. Combinations of adaptive methods to evaluate distributions of input data, plus knowledge of dominant controls of ecosystem processes, can help evaluate potential representations. In this case, variance‐based delineation of vegetation patches is shown to improve the ability to intelligently choose a patch distribution that minimizes the number of patches, while maintaining a degree of aggregation that does not overly bias the predictions.     

Observed and projected climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries according to Feddema

Climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is analyzed according to Feddema’s method. Precipitation and air temperature data from the twentieth century are taken from the Climatic Research Unit, while data for the twenty-first century are taken from the ENSEMBLES climate change project. The latter were bias-corrected to ensure homogeneity across the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Climate classes based on monthly and annual values of potential evapotranspiration, precipitation and their ratio, are defined for 30-year averages, from which trend and spatial agreement analysis are calculated. There are separate classes for annual values and for intra-annual variation. The results indicate that the change of annual climate characteristics will be much more intense in the twenty-first than it was in the twentieth century. The dominant process in the projections is warming, mostly via cold to cool (about 45% of grid points) in north Europe and cool to warm (about 8% of grid points) transformations. The second most important process is the drying of moderately moist classes affecting about 10% of the grid points in south Europe. Changes in intra-annual variability classes are more common than changes in the annual ones during the twentieth century. The chance of increase in intra-annual temperature variation from high to extreme is about 5% during the course of the twentieth century, and about 10% in the following century.     

The Sinai subplate and tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region

Although the precise boundaries and kinematics of the Sinai subplate are still doubtful, it has a significant role in the tectonic evolution of the northern Red Sea region. On the basis of earthquake distribution, the Sinai region can be considered as a subplate partially separated from the African plate by the Suez rift. The relative motion between Africa, Sinai and Arabia is the main source generating the present-day earthquake activity in the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba regions.According to geological observations, the southern segment of the Dead Sea fault system can be characterized by a left-lateral displacement of about 107km since the Middle Miocene, in contrast to the northern segment where only 25 to 35km offset can be inferred. We think that along the southern segment the total displacement was 72km until the late Miocene (10Ma). The earthquake activity is strongly reduced along the northern segment of the Dead Sea fault segment. Therefore, we suggest that the northern part (Yammouneh fault) evolves through initial cracking of the crust due to build-up of stress since the Pliocene time (5Ma) and propagates northward into Lebanon and Syria. This last 5 million years is the period when the southern and northern segments became linked and formed a single fault system with a new displacement of 35km.According to the proposed model the predicted opening pole of the Red Sea is near 34.0oN, 22.0oE with an angle of total rotation of 3.4o since the early miocene, providing a 0.82cm/a opening rate in the northern Red Sea. We suggest that the Dead Sea strike-slip fault was active since Middle Miocene time (15Ma) with a slip rate of 0.72cm/a to provide a total displacement of about 107km. This strike slip motion occured about an Euler pole near 33.0oN, 21.0oE with a rotation angle of about 3.0o. It can be inferred from the proximity of the pole and angle of rotations for the Red Sea and Dead Sea fault that more than 85% of the motion has been accommodated on the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea fault and less than 15% in the Gulf of Suez.This model predicts a normal extensional motion in the Gulf of Suez with a minor left-lateral strike-slip component. We expect the pole of this motion to be at 31.0oN, 29.0oE, offshore of Alamein city about 320 km west of the Nile Delta. The rate of motion through the last 15Ma (Middle Miocene) is about 0.1 cm/a and the angle of rotation is 0.9o. During this period the total opening of the Suez rift is 15 km while the rest of the motion (45 km) occured mainly through the first phase of the development before the Middle Miocene.     

Combining IR and X‐ray microtomography data sets: Application to Itokawa particles and to Paris meteorite

In the near future, a new generation of sample return missions (Hayabusa2, OSIRIS‐REx, MMX, etc.) will collect samples from small solar system bodies. To maximize the scientific outcome of laboratory studies and minimize the loss of precious extraterrestrial samples, an analytical sequence from less destructive to more destructive techniques needs to be established. In this work, we present a combined X‐ray and IR microtomography applied to five Itokawa particles and one fragment of the primitive carbonaceous chondrite Paris. We show that this analytical approach is able to provide a 3‐D physical and chemical characterization of individual extraterrestrial particles, using the measurement of their 3‐D structure and porosity, and the detection of mineral and organic phases, and their spatial co‐localization in 3‐D. We propose these techniques as an efficient first step in a multitechnique analytical sequence on microscopic samples collected by space missions.     

Climate Impact Response Functions: An Introduction

The concept of climate impact response function is introduced and placed into the context of integrated assessment models to analyze policy options under climate change constraints. An example of developing such response functions is presented that entails a global model of potential natural vegetation driven by a climate change pattern derived from a general circulation model. A large array of strenuous issues are introduced that will be addressed by the set of papers included in this Special Issue.     

An estimate of the influence of loading effects on tectonic velocities in the Pyrenees

Surface displacements due to temporal changes in environmental mass redistributions are observable in the coordinate time series of many Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites. In this study, we investigated the effect of loading on estimates of tectonic velocity computed from campaign-style GNSS observations. The study region is in the Pyrenees mountain range between France and Spain (ResPyr campaigns). In this area, seismic activity is continuous and moderate and the expected amplitude of the horizontal tectonic velocity is less than 0.5 mm/yr. In order to determine the velocity, 4 sparse GNSS campaigns were carried out from 1995 to 2010. Considering this small rate of deformation, loading phenomena can contribute a non-negligible artifact to the velocity computation that could affect our geodynamical interpretation. In this investigation, we specifically considered the atmospheric, hydrological, and non-tidal ocean loading phenomena. The computed loading deformations for this region show the horizontal displacements are dominated by the non-tidal ocean loading (maximum 4 mm for the North and 3.1 mm for the East components); the main vertical contributions are due to the atmospheric and continental water storage loading (maximum 14.3 for the atmosphere and 8.1 mm for the hydrology, respectively). We have found that the dominant loading effect on the horizontal velocity is the non-tidal ocean loading (mean of 0.11 mm/yr), whereas the vertical component is dominated by the hydrological loading (mean of 0.21 mm/yr). Since the study area is in a mountainous region, we also analyzed the difference between the atmospheric and the topography dependent atmospheric loading models at our GNSS campaign sites. We did not find any significant difference between the two atmospheric loading models in terms of horizontal velocity. Finally, we performed simulations to identify the optimum timing and frequency of future GNSS campaigns in this area that would minimize the loading effects on tectonic velocity estimates.     

Towards global space geodetic mapping of the dynamic deformation field after great earthquakes

GPS systems can be used as seismometers by sampling ground positions to detect travelling seismic waves. Data from dense geodetic networks near large earthquakes have been used to improve magnitude estimates, for tsunami warning, and to better understand the rupture processes. Here, we present 1 Hz GPS records of the March 11th, 2011, Mw = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake at unprecedented teleseismic distances. The spatial and temporal variations of the three‐dimensional GPS displacement vector field show various body waves, Love and Rayleigh surface waves along the direct path, and Love waves from the more than 31 000 km long major arc path. These results suggest that seismic wavefields can be mapped at teleseismic distances globally using space geodesy and could thus be used for source and structural studies. Data from numerous real‐time kinematic GPS networks could be combined to show the displacement field, giving unparalleled views of Earth's response to large earthquakes.     

Intraplate volcanism in the Danube Basin of NW Hungary: 3D geophysical modelling of the Late Miocene Pásztori volcano

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Three-dimensional geophysical modelling of the early Late Miocene Pásztori volcano (ca. 11–10 Ma) and adjacent area in the Little...     

Imprints of hydrocarbon-bearing basinal fluids on a karst system: mineralogical and fluid inclusion studies from the Buda Hills,Hungary

Calcite veins and related sulphate–sulphide mineralisation are common in the Buda Hills. Also, abundant hypogenic caves are found along fractures filled with these minerals pointing to the fact that young cave-forming fluids migrated along the same fractures as the older mineralising fluids did. The studied vein-filling paragenesis consists of calcite, barite, fluorite and sulphides. The strike of fractures is consistent—NNW–SSE—concluding a latest Early Miocene maximum age for the formation of fracture-filling minerals. Calcite crystals contain coeval primary, hydrocarbon-bearing- and aqueous inclusions indicating that also hydrocarbons have migrated together with the mineralising fluids. Hydrocarbon inclusions are described here for the first time from the Buda Hills. Mixed inclusions, i.e., petroleum with ‘water-tail’, were also detected, indicating that transcrystalline water migration took place. The coexistence of aqueous and petroleum inclusions permitted to establish the entrapment temperature (80°C) and pressure (85 bar) of the fluid and thus also the thickness of sediments, having been eroded since latest Early Miocene times, was calculated (800 m). Low salinity of the fluids (<1.7 NaCl eq. wt%) implies that hydrocarbon-bearing fluids were diluted by regional karst water. FT-IR investigations revealed that CO₂ and CH₄ are associated with hydrocarbons. Groundwater also contains small amounts of HC and related gases on the basin side even today. Based on the location of the paleo- and recent hydrocarbon indications, identical migration pathways were reconstructed for both systems. Hydrocarbon-bearing fluids are supposed to have migrated north-westward from the basin east to the Buda Hills from the Miocene on.