历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。     

2-D viscoelastic FEM simulation on stress state in the deep part of a subducted slab

Introduction It is found that there are some relationships between the thermal structures of subduction zones and the deep seismicity, while the mechanism relates the thermal structure and the deep seismicity is still unsure (Helffrich, Brodholt, 1991; Furukawa, 1994; Kirby, et al, 1996). From 1980s, geoscientists have constituted a series of numerical simulations on the stress states of subduction slabs. Based on the kinetic computation of Sung and Burns (1976a, b), Goto, et al (1983, 1987…     

Analysis and comparison of the tidal gravity observations obtained with LCR-ET20 spring gravimeter

Introduction The tidal variation signals of the solid Earth recorded with the modern measuring techniques can be used to provide effectively the means to cognize the Earths motion, deformation and structure character, especially to monitor the material motion in the Earths interior. In the recent 20 years, the distribution character of the global gravity field has made great progress since the continuous and deep theoretical studies in geophysics and geodesy domains. The successful manufactur…     

中原地区M≥6级地震后的减(增)震效应

通过对中原地区1500年－2000年所有19次M≥6级地震后空间图像的分析，初步认为M≥6级地震发生后平均63年内，在距原震中平均176km内无M≥5级地震发生，全部19次震例均呈现出内部减震效应，而在其外围出现地震增强的活动图像特征，增震效应对应率为72％。这种强震后的减（增）震效应，不仅对地震危险性分析，而且对1年尺度以上的地震趋势预测均有一定的意义。     

Study on dynamics of tectonic evolution in the Fushun Basin, Northeast China

The updated study shows that the taphrogenesis of basement of the Fushun Basin is not a kind of instantaneous process. It intensified gradually and went to extreme in the sedimentary stage of the Guchengzi formation, and then, it weakened rapidly and stopped soon afterwards; the depression did not take place after the taphrogenesis. On the contrary, it almost happened simultaneously with the taphrogenesis. The depression went at a high speed from the beginning of the sedimentary period of the Xilutian formation, and then weakened gradually in the sedimentary period of the Gengjiajie formation. The evolution course of the synsedimentary structure of the Fushun Basin can be summarized as the following six stages: slow taphrogenesis and high speed depression to accelerated taphrogenesis and high speed depression to high speed taphrogenesis and high speed depression to retarded taphrogenesis and high speed depression to gradual halt of taphrogenesis and reduced depression to slow depression and gradual halt of depression. The tectonic evolution resulted in the formation of the "lower taphrogenesis and upper depression" structure. The formation of the binary structure might be due to the suspension of taphrogenesis and the change of the regional structure stress field, but the depression kept going. The result of calculation combining the analysis of the synsedimentary structural frame, the back-stripping method of the subsidence history of the basin basement and the simulation of thermo-settlement history indicates that the great sedimentary space required by the "upper depression part" consists of two parts, namely, 40% from compaction of sediments and 60% from slow depression of the basin basement during a long period of time. Gradual halt of the depression in the Fushun Basin may be attributed to the reversal of the lithosphere hot-recession and gravity isostasy adjustment which may be the result of new hot-events in the depths and accompanied invasion of extremely thick diabase sill, thus revealing a new forming mechanism of "fault subsidence at the base and depression on the top" structure.     

Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim Basin

Temporal sequential analyses of the hydrological observational data in the Tarim Basin over the last forty years revealed an annual increase of 2× 10⁷m³ in the water quantities at the three headstreams of the upper courses and an annual decrease of 3 × 10⁷m³ in the water flow from Alaer, which is on the upper main stream. A prediction of the trends indicates that there can be severe situations under which intermittent water interceptions occur. By means of approximate estimations on vegetative water consumption through phreatic evaporation combined with a quota assessment, the ecological water demands required to maintain the ecological environment in the mainstream area over the three different targeted years of 2005, 2010 and 2030 are defined as standing at 31.86 × 10⁸m³, 36.27 × 10⁸m³ and 41.04 × 10⁸m³ respectively. Ecological fragility indexes are established on the basis of the selection of environmental sensitivity factors. Rational evaluations give proof that the lower reaches of the mainstream have already turned into zones where their ecological environments are gravely damaged. Multi-objective optimization should be conducted and protective schemes be framed within the threshold limits of the bearing capacities of water resources and the environment     

Sandy desertification in the north of China

With the economic and social development, desertification exerted increasingly profound influences on natural environment and social development and attracted widespread attention of international communities. China, as one of the countries facing severe desertification problems, has witnessed some progress in understanding and combating the process of desertification through many years of hard work. Based on the experiences and research achievements, this paper briefly discusses the causes, developmental processes, damage assessment and control mechanism of desertification in the north of China so as to provide some basic experiences for the further study of desertification.     

Remote sensing parameterization of the processes of energy and water cycle over desertification areas

In order to understand the processes of land surface-atmosphere interaction over desertification area, it is indispensable to utilize of satellite remote sensing. Two scenes of Landsat TM were used to produce a set of maps of surface reflectance, MSAVI, vegetation coverage, surface temperature, net radiation, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux. Statistical analysis based on these maps revealed some quantitative significant land surface characteristics. Future developments of the method are also discussed.     

Remote sensing analysis of desert vegetation and its landscape changes: The case in middle reaches of Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Based on remote sensing information sources including B/W aerial photos of 1983, pseudo-color aerial photos of 1992 and JERS-1/OPS VNIR image of 1996, vegetation types of Yingbazha, in the middle reaches of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang, China are mapped using ARC/INFO and related software. The changes in vegetation areas and distribution conditions are analyzed. As a result of natural and human influences, vegetation changes have temporal and spatial characteristics. According to the principles of landscape ecology and geographical information science, the landscape changes are indicated. Moreover, the remote sensing and GIS techniques are integrated to study vegetation and its landscape.     

Kosa (yellow sand) components in precipitation collected at central Japan

In east Asia, acidic gases derived from fossil fuel combustion have increased in the past decades. On the other hand, the Asian dust, also called Kosa (yellow sand) is transported following windstorms from arid lands in the Asian continent. Many researchers have been interested in the reaction between acidic aerosols and Kosa aerosols as well as the long-range transport of these emissions. To investigate the characteristics of chemical components in precipitation on a long-term basis over Japan, precipitation was sequentially collected from April 1984 to March 1997 at Kanazawa located near the coast of the Sea of Japan. Precipitation samples were collected at 1 mm intervals for the first 5 mm rainfall and all volume of rainwater after 6 mm for all precipitation events with an automatic wet only precipitation collector. According to the analyses of precipitation including Kosa aerosols during Kosa periods, the reaction in the air between Kosa and acidic components during the long-range transport was discussed.