CMIP5/AMIP GCM simulations of East Asian summer monsoon

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM,10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5/AMIP）,which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008,were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP Ⅱ simulations.The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble （MME） of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation,and shows the best skill in EASM simulation,better than the AMIP Ⅱ MME.As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt,the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models.The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group Ⅰ models,and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group Ⅱ models.Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall,and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models.However,the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI）.     

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China简

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling.Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions.By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed.We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons.The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas.Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased.Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.     

地理空间数据结合手机信令等多源数据刻画城市居民出行特征

本文提出了以地理空间数据为支撑,结合手机信令、POI等多源数据刻画城市居民出行特征的方法。首先将信令数据与地理信息区块绑定,根据时间特征和地理区块的社会属性,识别居民的基本职住娱信息;然后综合民生POI点、出行特征拓展关键词、图谱等多源数据,运用工作日通勤分析模型和节假日出行特征提取模型,识别用户的通勤距离、通勤方式、日均通勤频次、周均工作时长、节假日出行场景、出行频次、驻留时长等内容,并形成涵盖职住娱信息的出行特征类标签集。以成都市为例,采集连续1个月的手机信令数据和同时期的POI等数据,验证了该方法的可行性,该成果作为反映城市实际人口规模数量和空间分布特征的城市人口地图大数据产品的重要内容,为政府部门、商企用户开展相关分析业务提供数据支撑。     

我国页岩气资源及影响因素

在世界面临能源短缺的背景下,页岩气作为油气勘探的一个新领域,越来越得到世界各国的重视。我国页岩气资源丰富,许多盆地或地区具有页岩气大规模成藏的地质条件,对页岩气的研究显得尤为重要。该文介绍了我国页岩气资源储量、分布及开采面临的问题,概述了页岩气地质特征。在此基础上探讨了我国页岩气的影响因素,认为我国页岩气主要受有机碳含量、成熟度、裂缝的发育程度、地层压力的控制;页岩气与煤层气同属于非常规天然气,其赋存形态、成因类型、富集规律具有很多相似之处,因此可将页岩气与煤层气进行对比研究。     

广西栗木泡水岭印支期岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

广西栗木泡水岭花岗岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄显示,泡水岭花岗岩体可能存在3期岩浆活动:210Ma、222Ma和239Ma,佐证了栗木岩体是印支期岩浆活动的产物。结合最新的研究,栗木花岗岩体形成于印支期,岩浆活动集中在210Ma±4Ma~222Ma±5Ma之间,并且在239.8Ma±4.3Ma可能存在印支早期的岩浆活动。     

基于地层结构组合的第四纪地质单元划分研究——以皖江经济带沿江丘陵平原区为例

为支撑地质条件复杂地区的水文地质、工程地质和环境地质调查研究,在皖江经济带沿江丘陵平原区通过系统分析第四纪地层的岩性、结构、构造等组合,以地貌以及第四系成因、沉积相和沉积物物源为指标,结合已有区域第四纪研究成果以及年代地层和岩石地层划分标准,进行皖江沿江丘陵平原区“第四纪地质单元”划分,共划分出冲积-湖积平原地质单元、洪积-坡积岗地地质单元和残积-剥蚀丘陵地质单元3个一级地质单元,总结了7种类型第四纪地层结构组合及其特征,为区域水文地质和工程地质调查与研究奠定了基础。     

A tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the Mohe region in the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains,China, since AD 1724

August–July precipitation has been reconstructed back to AD 1724 for the Mohe region in the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, using Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains 39% of the variance in the precipitation observed from AD 1960–2008. Some droughts noted in historical documents are precisely captured in our reconstruction. Wet periods occurred during the periods of AD 1734–1785, AD 1805–1830, AD 1863–1880, AD 1922–1961, and AD 1983–1998; while the periods of AD 1786–1804, AD 1831–1862, AD 1881–1921, and AD 1962–1982 were relatively dry. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demonstrated the existence of significant 24-yr, 12-yr, and 2-yr cycles of variability. The results of the spatial correlations suggest that our reconstruction contains climatic signals for the southern Stanovoy Range and the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains. The positive correlations between the new reconstructed precipitation series and two precipitation reconstructions indicate that our precipitation reconstruction captures broad-scale regional climatic variations. A comparison between the weakening tendency of summer monsoon and the dry period of our reconstruction reveals that the annual precipitation in the Mohe region is partly influenced by the East Asian Summer Monsoon.     

An Approach for Modeling Rock Discontinuous Mechanical Behavior Under Multiphase Fluid Flow Conditions

In this paper, the two computer codes TOUGH2 and RDCA (for “rock discontinuous cellular automaton”) are integrated for coupled hydromechanical analysis of multiphase fluid flow and discontinuous mechanical behavior in heterogeneous rock. TOUGH2 is a well-established code for geohydrological analysis involving multiphase, multicomponent fluid flow and heat transport; RDCA is a numerical model developed for simulating the nonlinear and discontinuous geomechanical behavior of rock. The RDCA incorporates the discontinuity of a fracture independently of the mesh, such that the fracture can be arbitrarily located within an element, while the fluid pressure calculated by TOUGH2 can be conveniently applied to fracture surfaces. We verify and demonstrate the coupled TOUGH–RDCA simulator by modeling a number of simulation examples related to coupled multiphase flow and geomechanical processes associated with the deep geological storage of carbon dioxide—including modeling of ground surface uplift, stress-dependent permeability, and the coupled multiphase flow and geomechanical behavior of fractures intersecting the caprock.     

东准造山带原泥盆系的形成时代及源区：碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学证据

新疆东准地区晚古生代地层出露广泛,其沉积时限的精确限定对理解中亚造山带的增生和拼贴过程、确立该地区构造框架及油气开发具有深远意义。然而,目前的研究主要集中于岩浆岩方面,对于晚古生代地层时代及其空间展布的研究则相对缺乏,特别是石炭系和泥盆系沉积地层标定较为模糊。为此,本文选取了3个原泥盆系砂岩进行了细致的野外剖面测制、岩石学观测和碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学分析。研究显示：原泥盆纪砂岩的最年轻碎屑锆石年龄为346～312 Ma,碎屑锆石年龄谱图分为：380～310 Ma（晚泥盆世-早石炭世,71.8%）、445～385 Ma（志留纪-早-中泥盆世,11.7%）、480～450 Ma（奥陶纪,3.9%）、540～485 Ma（寒武纪,4.5%）和前寒武纪年龄段（8.1%）,碎屑锆石年龄谱图区域上具有由南向北、由西向东呈简单化趋势且晚古生代年龄比重增加。结合该区岩浆岩年代学研究成果,将研究区原泥盆系沉积时代重新厘定到晚石炭系早-中期,认为东准地区的碰撞拼贴时间应发生于晚石炭世,并非是不同期次碰撞拼贴之产物。