Prediction of the spatial distribution of the modified mercalli intensity using neural networks

This paper presents the development of an adaptive, non-parametric forecast model for the direct prediction of the spatial distribution of the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The model is based on recent advances in neural networks computation, and is constructed through supervised learning using historical earthquake and regional geological data as training sets. A MMI forecast model for moderate earthquakes with magnitudes between 6 and 7 was developed based on data from the Loma Prieta, Coalinga and Morgan Hill earthquakes. For these data sets, the neural networks forecast model is shown to have excellent data synthesis capability; multiple sets of data can be encapsulated by a relatively simple network architecture. Limited comparison of forecasts made by the neural networks model and conventional models demonstrates that improved accuracy can be achieved. Implementation and operational advantages of the neural networks approach such as general input features, minimum preconceived knowledge of the data sets, the ability to learn and to adapt incrementally and the autonomous and automatic synthesis of the structure underlying the data sets, have been illustrated.     

Formation of the Eurasia Basin in the Arctic Ocean as inferred from geohistorical analysis of the anomalous magnetic field

A new combined magnetic database and a magnetic-profile map are developed for the Eurasia Basin as a result of adjusting all available historical and recent Russian and American magnetic data sets. The geohistorical analysis of magnetic data includes several steps: identification of linear magnetic anomalies along each trackline, calculation of the Euler rotation pole positions for the relative motion of the North American and Eurasian plates, analysis of temporal and spatial variations in the spreading rate, and plate reconstructions. The pattern of key Cenozoic magnetic isochrons (24, 20, 18, 13, 6, 5, 2a) is constructed for the entire Eurasia Basin. In the western half of the basin, this pattern is consistent with a recently published scheme [16]. In its eastern half, magnetic isochrons are determined in detail for the first time and traced up to the Laptev Sea shelf. The main stages in the seafloor spreading are established for the Eurasia Basin. Each stage is characterized by a specific spreading rate and the degree of asymmetry of the basin opening. The revealed differences are traced along the Gakkel Ridge. Systematic patterns in wandering of the Eurasia Basin opening pole are established for particular stages. The continent-ocean transition zone corresponding to the primary rupture between plates is outlined in the region under consideration on the basis of gravimetric data. The nature of different potential fields and bottom topography on opposite sides of the Gakkel Ridge is discussed. The characteristic features of the basin-bottom formation at main stages of its evolution are specified on the basis of new and recently published data. The results obtained are in good agreement with plate geodynamics of the North Atlantic and the adjacent Arctic basins.     

U–Pb dating of plutonic rocks involved in the nappe tectonic in southern Cameroon: consequence for the Pan-African orogenic evolution of the central African fold belt

TIMS-ID and SIMS U–Pb dating on zircons from metaplutonic rocks involved in the Pan-African nappe of southern Cameroon allow definition of three groups of subduction-related intrusions: group-I intrusions represented by the Masins metagabbro in the Lomie region yielded 666 ± 26 Ma; group-II intrusions represented by the Mamb metasyenogabbro and the Yaoundé pyriclasite yielded ca. 620 Ma and are broadly coeval with the deposition of the Yaoundé metasediments; group-III intrusions represented by the Elon augen metagranite and the Ngaa Mbappe metamonzodiorite yielded ca. 600 Ma. The onset of the nappe tectonics occurred under high-grade conditions in the range 616 to 610 Ma and continued around 600 Ma with the emplacement of the shallowest nappes. Finally, the construction of southern Cameroon proceeded by a multi-stage evolution characterized by a long-lived development of magmatic arcs associated with rapid opening and closure of sedimentary marginal basins in relation to a northward subduction.     

Theory of the motion of an artificial Earth satellite

An improved analytical solution is obtained for the motion of an artificial Earth satellite under the combined influences of gravity and atmospheric drag. The gravitational model includes zonal harmonics throughJ ₄, and the atmospheric model assumes a nonrotating spherical power density function. The differential equations are developed through second order under the assumption that the second zonal harmonic and the drag coefficient are both first-order terms, while the remaining zonal harmonics are of second order.Canonical transformations and the method of averaging are used to obtain transformations of variables which significantly simplify the transformed differential equations. A solution for these transformed equations is found; and this solution, in conjunction with the transformations cited above, gives equations for computing the six osculating orbital elements which describe the orbital motion of the satellite. The solution is valid for all eccentricities greater than 0 and less than 0.1 and all inclinations not near 0^o or the critical inclination. Approximately ninety percent of the satellites currently in orbit satisfy all these restrictions.     

Shaking table tests of a full-scale flat-bottom manufactured steel silo filled with wheat: Main results on the fixed-base configuration

This paper reports on a series of shaking table tests on a full-scale flat-bottom steel silo filled with soft wheat, characterized by aspect ratio of around 0.9. The specimen was a 3.64-m diameter and 5.50-m high corrugated-wall cylindrical silo. Multiple sensors were used to monitor the static and dynamic response of the filled silo system, including accelerometers and pressure cells. Numerous unidirectional dynamic tests were performed consisting of random signals, sinusoidal inputs, and both artificial and real earthquake records. The objectives of this paper are (i) to provide a general overview of the whole experimental campaign and (ii) to present selected results obtained for the fixed-base configuration. The measured data were processed to assess the static pressures, the dynamic overpressures (related to the effective mass) and the accelerations of monitored points on the silo wall, and to identify the basic dynamic properties (fundamental frequency of vibration, damping ratio, dynamic amplification factors) of the filled silo. The main findings are discussed and compared with the predictions given by available theoretical models and code provisions. It is found that the fundamental frequency slightly decreases with increasing acceleration, while it slightly increases with increasing compaction of the granular material. For close-to-resonance input, the dynamic amplification (in terms of peak values of accelerations) increases along the height of the silo wall up to values of around 1.4 at the top surface of the solid content. The dynamic overpressures appear to increase with depth (differently from the EN1998-4 expectations), and to be proportional to the acceleration.     

Towards sustainable urban development: the social acceptability of high-rise buildings in a Ghanaian city

Over the years, many city managers, policy makers and academics alike have turned to high-rise buildings as pathway to sustainable urban development. However, the sustainability of such types of development in various geographical contexts, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, is a subject less explored. Amidst the promotion of high-rise development in a rapidly urbanizing metropolis in Ghana, Kumasi, the research empirically examined the social acceptability of high-rise residential facilities and the institutional capacity for their effective management. By conducting face-to-face interviews with sampled households, and critical public service providers in the metropolis, the study uncovered that, contrary to the evidence from many Asian cities, there is generally low social acceptability of high-rise developments, and a weak institutional capacity for effective service delivery. The research concludes that, whilst it is tempting to embrace high-rise buildings as sustainable development pathway, it is crucial they are pursued with much circumspection. In addition to their design being tailored to the local needs of the people for whom they are built, the promotion of high-rise development should recognize the importance of effective service delivery, and general social acceptability.