Geostatistical Simulation of Acoustic Log Data for Seismic Depth Conversion

Seismic reflection methods measure the time a seismic wave takes to travel through the ground, from the user defined source to a series of signal monitoring sensors known as geophones. The measured times need to be depth converted to allow for integration with other geological data. In order to convert from time to depth, an estimate of the rock volume velocity field must be made. The velocity field estimate can be made by assignment of velocity estimates to a geological model independent of the seismic processing. This article presents the results of using the acoustic geophysical log data extrapolated via sequential Gaussian simulation to derive the velocity field. The uncertainties associated with the velocity estimates were significant and provided the means to assess confidence limits for the actual depth determination. The technique is assessed by application to a major coal deposit, approximately 2.1 m thick and 210 m deep. Considering only the uncertainty associated with estimating the velocity field, half of the confidence interval values showed approximately 1 m of uncertainty in depth. The application of sequential Gaussian simulation to model the 3D distribution of acoustic velocity can be extended to other geophysical log parameters or derived estimates.     

Periodic orbits for a class of galactic potentials

In this work, applying general results from averaging theory, we find periodic orbits for a class of Hamiltonian systems H whose potential models the motion of elliptic galaxies.     

Predicting forest fire in the Brazilian Amazon using MODIS imagery and artificial neural networks

The presented work describes a methodology that employs artificial neural networks (ANN) and multi-temporal imagery from the MODIS/Terra-Aqua sensors to detect areas of high risk of forest fire in the Brazilian Amazon. The hypothesis of this work is that due to characteristic land use and land cover change dynamics in the Amazon forest, forest areas likely to be burned can be separated from other land targets. A study case was carried out in three municipalities located in northern Mato Grosso State, Brazilian Amazon. Feedforward ANNs, with different architectures, were trained with a backpropagation algorithm, taking as inputs the NDVI values calculated from MODIS imagery acquired during five different periods preceding the 2005 fire season. Selected samples were extracted from areas where forest fires were detected in 2005 and from other non-burned forest and agricultural areas. These samples were used to train, validate and test the ANN. The results achieved a mean squared error of 0.07. In addition, the model was simulated for an entire municipality and its results were compared with hotspots detected by the MODIS sensor during the year. A histogram analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the areas with fire risk were consistent with the fire events observed from June to December 2005. The ANN model allowed a fast and relatively precise method to predict forest fire events in the studied area. Hence, it offers an excellent alternative for supporting forest fire prevention policies, and in assisting the assessment of burned areas, reducing the uncertainty involved in currently used methods.     

Water-soluble inorganic ions of size-differentiated atmospheric particles from a suburban site of Mexico City

During the MILAGRO campaign, March 2006, eight-stage cut impactors were used to sample atmospheric particles at Tecámac (T1 supersite), towards the northeast edge of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, collecting fresh local emissions and aged pollutants produced in Mexico City. Particle samples were analyzed to determine total mass concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, and NO₃ ^?. Average concentrations were 22.1 ± 7.2 μg m^?3 for PM₁₀ and 18.3 ± 6.2 μg m^?3 for PM_1.8. A good correlation between PM₁₀ and PM_1.8, without influence from wind patterns, indicates that local emissions are more important than the city’s pollution transported to the site, despite the fact that Tecámac is just 40 km away from Mexico City. A lack of diurnal patterns in the PM_2.5/PM_1.8 ratio supports this conclusion. The inorganic composition of particles suggests that vehicles, soil resuspension, and industries are the main pollutant sources. Finally, the particles were found to be neutralized, in agreement with observations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.     

Effects of Explicit Urban-Canopy Representation on Local Circulations Above a Tropical Mega-City

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is coupled with the tropical town energy budget (tTEB) scheme to analyze the effects of the urban canopy circulation over the metropolitan area of São Paulo and its interactions with the sea breeze and mountain-valley circulation in the eastern state of São Paulo, Brazil. Two experiments are carried out for the typical sea-breeze event occurring on 22 August 2014 under weak synoptic forcing and clear-sky conditions: (a) a control run with the default semi-desert surface parametrization and; (b) a tTEB run for the urban canopy of São Paulo. A realistic land-use database over the south-eastern domain of Brazil is used in the downscaling simulation to a horizontal grid resolution of 3 km. Our results indicate that ARPS effectively simulates features of the nighttime and early morning land-breeze circulation, which is affected by the surrounding hills and the nocturnal heat island of São Paulo. By early afternoon, the south-eastern sea-breeze circulation moves inland perpendicular to the upslope of the Serra do Mar scarp, which generates a line of moisture convergence and updrafts further inland. Later, the convergence line reaches São Paulo and interacts with the circulation arising from the urban heat island (UHI), which increases the moisture convergence and strength of updrafts. The surface energy balance indicates that the UHI is caused by large sensible heat storage within the urban canopy during the day, which is later released in the afternoon and at night. The simulations are verified with available radiosonde and surface weather station data, land-surface-temperature estimates from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, as well as the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis databases. The three-dimensional geometry of the urban canyons within the tTEB scheme consistently improves the thermodynamically-induced circulation over São Paulo.     

A locally conservative Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical method and its application to nonlinear transport in porous media

Eulerian-Lagrangian and Modified Method of Characteristics (MMOC) procedures provide computationally efficient techniques for approximating the solutions of transport-dominated diffusive systems. The original MMOC fails to preserve certain integral identities satisfied by the solution of the differential system; the recently introduced variant, called the MMOCAA, preserves the global form of the identity associated with conservation of mass in petroleum reservoir simulations, but it does not preserve a localized form of this identity. Here, we introduce an Eulerian-Lagrangian method related to these MMOC procedures that guarantees conservation of mass locally for the problem of two-phase, immiscible, incompressible flow in porous media. The computational efficiencies of the older procedures are maintained. Both the original MMOC and the MMOCAA procedures for this problem are derived from a nondivergence form of the saturation equation; the new method is based on the divergence form of the equation. A reasonably extensive set of computational experiments are presented to validate the new method and to show that it produces a more detailed picture of the local behavior in waterflooding a fractally heterogeneous medium. A brief discussion of the application of the new method to miscible flow in porous media is included. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Human-made disasters and economic impact for a developing economy: evidence from Brazil

Natural Hazards - This article analyzes the short-term economic impacts of the collapse of the ‘Fundão’ mining tailings dam, located in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. This...     

Damage assessment of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake in the North-Central Chile

Natural Hazards - Destructive megathrust earthquakes, such as the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel event, frequently affect Chile. In this study, we assess the damage of the 2015 Illapel Earthquake in the...