Choosing Between Two Kind of Sampling Patterns Using Geostatistical Simulation: Regularly Spaced or at High Uncertainty Locations?

Data from a mineral deposit are commonly obtained by core drilling. This kind of sampling involves high costs, limiting the number of drill holes. Additional holes should be located to bring the maximum benefit. The benefit can be evaluated by various ways and must take into account the goals of sampling. This article presents a case study where the deposit has been sampled and the new drillings must be added to reduce the uncertainty about a transfer function, Net Present Value (NPV) of the mining project. There are basically two ways to choose locations where new drillings should be placed for cases where the aim of sampling is to reduce uncertainty about a global function: the addition of new drillings outlining a quasi regular grid with previously collected drillings or the addition of new drillings on the locations of high uncertainty about the attribute of interest (or the attribute that is considered most influential in the transfer function). The performances of these patterns on reducing the uncertainty measured by the function selected are compared. The results point out that the most efficient pattern relates to the distribution (histogram) of the uncertainty about the attribute of interest. Thus, the choice of which sampling pattern should be adopted varies depending on data distribution and its influence on the transfer function.     

A simplified approach for including the incidence angle effect in seismic risk assessment

A simplified procedure is developed to consider the azimuthal orientation of buildings when estimating seismic risk. Two square-plan reinforced concrete building models are considered as a testbed, one with similar and one with dissimilar properties along the two principal horizontal axes. The fragility of both structures is analysed using a set of ground motion records rotated to multiple incidence angles to develop orientation-dependent fragility functions. It has been observed that, re-orienting all records so that these structures have the same azimuth vis-à-vis the corresponding epicentre leads to significant differences compared to assuming random orientations. Additional results stemming from single-degree-of-freedom oscillators further confirm such findings, showing a dependence to the proximity to the faults and the level of dissimilarity in the principal horizontal axes of the structure. The end results point to a non-negligible bias in assessment studies when a structure's orientation with respect to governing rupture scenarios is not taken into account. It is shown that the median of fragility curves calculated for un-rotated incidence angles can be bias-corrected through shifted by an amount that depends on the azimuthal orientation and level of axes-dissimilarity of structures.     

Behavior of Dry-Mixed and Permeated Laponite-Treated Sand: From Small Strains to Critical State

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Laponite—a synthetic nanoclay with (2:1) layer structure—has shown promise for the improvement of granular deposits susceptible to earthquake...     

Adaptive capacity in evolving peri-urban spaces: Responses to flood risk in the Upper Lerma River Valley,Mexico

Although ‘peri-urban’ and ‘rur-urban’ growth patterns are now prominent in previously rural areas of Latin America, there has been little exploration of the implication of these patterns for social vulnerability to hazards and adaptive capacity for hazard management. A case study of flooding in the Upper Lerma River Valley, Mexico, illustrates how livelihood and land use change in these peri-urban spaces have altered residents’ perceptions of risk and loss, while public officials are adhering to a traditional sectoral and structural interpretation of flooding as an agricultural problem, managed by agricultural and water agencies. The current system of treating flooding as an agricultural problem, managed by agricultural and water agencies, does not address the increased role of urbanization as a driver of flooding and water risk in the valley. The resulting mismatch in policy potentially exacerbates regional vulnerability in face of rising flood losses. Enhancing adaptive capacity in this context requires a new vision of the populations and communities of the region as an integrated system, supported by institutions that facilitate cross-scale and intersectoral planning.     

What happens to the ocean surface gravity waves when ENSO and MJO phases combine during the extended boreal winter?

The safety of vulnerable coastal and offshore infrastructures requires an in-depth understanding of wave variability and climate drivers. We investigate the association of significant wave height (Hs) and peak wave period (Tp) with the co-occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) at the global scale. We calculate composites of daily anomalies in modelled Hs, Tp, and surface wind for periods of ENSO–MJO phase combinations. Calculations spanned November–March seasons over the period 1979–2018. Wave anomalies are widespread across the world’s oceans, with remarkable strength during several ENSO–MJO phase combinations, demonstrating strong tropic–tropic and tropic-extratropic teleconnections. Positive Hs anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 3, and in the Indian Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 4. Positive Tp anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during La Niña–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 1, and in the Indian Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8. In the Southern Ocean, the strongest Hs anomalies occur during El Niño–MJO phase 8, whereas in the Maritime Continent, they appear during ENSO-neutral-MJO phases 5–6. Despite previous studies finding low correlations of ENSO indices with wave parameters in the North Atlantic, our results suggest that ENSO-related conditions play a significant role in the area when combined with certain MJO-related conditions. This study also reveals that the wave anomalies associated with ENSO–MJO phase combinations can be twice as strong as those found in previous work, related only to the MJO. Therefore, considering multiple concurrent climate patterns in the analysis of wave anomalies is essential to developing more reliable coastal management plans.     

Numerical simulation of the circulation and tropical teleconnection mechanisms of a severe drought event (2012–2016) in Northeastern Brazil

Climate Dynamics - Large domains in regional climate models are known to provide a better representation of the mesoscale circulation and hence the precipitation field. To evaluate the model...     

Reproductive cycle,size at first maturation and fecundity in the golden ling,Genypterus blacodes,in Chile

Reproductive aspects of the golden ling, Genypterus blacodes, from the southern Chilean fishery are presented. Gonad samples were obtained from commercially caught fish between September 1999 and October 2000. Stage of sexual maturity, gonadosomatic index (GSI), and size of females at 50% maturation determined by logistic methods and by plotting the mean GSI by total length, are presented for both years. Batch fecundity was calculated from subsampling mature ovaries containing oocytes in advanced stages of maturity. Changes in GSI and monthly diameters of oocytes showed that ling had a spawning season which extended between August and November. The sizes at first maturity in 1999 and 2000 were 86.6 and 84.8 cm total length (TL), respectively, using the logistic model, and 84 cm for both years using the mean GSI‐size plotting method. The mean batch fecundity was 333 330 oocytes per individual for fish sized 85–120 cm TL. Fecundity increased with increasing weight and total length.     

Modeling the potential impact of climate change in northern Mexico using two environmental indicators

Modeling the deterioration of natural resources, especially water and soil that results from the global effects of climate change has become a powerful tool in the search for mitigation and adaptation measures. The objectives of this research were: (1) to model the potential impact of climate change for the period 2010-2039, and (2) to offer advice about future risks based on local radiative forcing or critical areas and taking into account two indicators of environmental quality, the aridity index (AI) and laminar wind erosion (LWE). Evaluation techniques for natural resources, similar to those applied by the Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change) were used for studies of ecological land use. The inputs include climate information (current and future), soil cover and edaphic properties related to the municipality of Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico (25.886° N, 103.476° W). According to calculations estimated from the anomalies for the mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature, in a future climate change scenario, an average impact of approximately 63% would be caused by LWE, and the AI would change from its historical value of 9.3 to 8.7. It is estimated that the average impact on the AI in the future will be 0.53 ± 0.2.