Numerical simulation of the circulation and tropical teleconnection mechanisms of a severe drought event (2012–2016) in Northeastern Brazil

Climate Dynamics - Large domains in regional climate models are known to provide a better representation of the mesoscale circulation and hence the precipitation field. To evaluate the model...     

Choosing Between Two Kind of Sampling Patterns Using Geostatistical Simulation: Regularly Spaced or at High Uncertainty Locations?

Data from a mineral deposit are commonly obtained by core drilling. This kind of sampling involves high costs, limiting the number of drill holes. Additional holes should be located to bring the maximum benefit. The benefit can be evaluated by various ways and must take into account the goals of sampling. This article presents a case study where the deposit has been sampled and the new drillings must be added to reduce the uncertainty about a transfer function, Net Present Value (NPV) of the mining project. There are basically two ways to choose locations where new drillings should be placed for cases where the aim of sampling is to reduce uncertainty about a global function: the addition of new drillings outlining a quasi regular grid with previously collected drillings or the addition of new drillings on the locations of high uncertainty about the attribute of interest (or the attribute that is considered most influential in the transfer function). The performances of these patterns on reducing the uncertainty measured by the function selected are compared. The results point out that the most efficient pattern relates to the distribution (histogram) of the uncertainty about the attribute of interest. Thus, the choice of which sampling pattern should be adopted varies depending on data distribution and its influence on the transfer function.     

Adaptive capacity in evolving peri-urban spaces: Responses to flood risk in the Upper Lerma River Valley,Mexico

Although ‘peri-urban’ and ‘rur-urban’ growth patterns are now prominent in previously rural areas of Latin America, there has been little exploration of the implication of these patterns for social vulnerability to hazards and adaptive capacity for hazard management. A case study of flooding in the Upper Lerma River Valley, Mexico, illustrates how livelihood and land use change in these peri-urban spaces have altered residents’ perceptions of risk and loss, while public officials are adhering to a traditional sectoral and structural interpretation of flooding as an agricultural problem, managed by agricultural and water agencies. The current system of treating flooding as an agricultural problem, managed by agricultural and water agencies, does not address the increased role of urbanization as a driver of flooding and water risk in the valley. The resulting mismatch in policy potentially exacerbates regional vulnerability in face of rising flood losses. Enhancing adaptive capacity in this context requires a new vision of the populations and communities of the region as an integrated system, supported by institutions that facilitate cross-scale and intersectoral planning.     

Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m³ water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m³ s^?1. These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m³ s^?1. Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia.     

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.     

Inferring paleosalinity trends using the chrysophyte cyst to diatom ratio in coastal shallow temperate/subtropical lagoons influenced by sea level changes

Data on chrysophyte cyst to diatom ratios as an index to track Holocene paleosalinity changes are presented. Six sediment cores taken in four coastal systems influenced by Holocene sea level changes indicate that during the transition from marine/brackish to brackish/freshwater and freshwater conditions, increases in the cyst to diatom ratio were recorded. These data suggest that Holocene changes in paleosalinities in coastal aquatic systems may be tracked by using this simple index, however other factors (such as changes in nutrient levels) may complicate some interpretations. Nevertheless, data required to calculate this simple index are easy to obtain, and so relatively little effort is required to obtain some paleolimnological information on these two important algal groups.     

Angélica Copper Deposit: Exotic Type Mineralization in the Tocopilla Plutonic Complex of the Coastal Cordillera, Northern Chile

The Angélica copper deposit is situated at the southernmost sector of the Jurassic Tocopilla plutonic complex in the North Chilean Coastal Cordillera. This deposit occurs in monzonitic to monzodioritic rocks, and has platelike orebodies with no appreciable hydrothermal alteration nor sulfide mineralization. The mineralized zones are located in the western side of the two main normal faults with NE and NW orientations, and are characterized principally by impregnation of supergene copper products of atacamite and minor amounts of chrysocolla, lavendulan and “black copper”. Generally, chrysocolla is more abundant at a distal NE sector of the deposit. The black copper is Cu‐Fe‐Mn‐Si‐Cl‐rich multimineral aggregates composed of atacamite with minor amounts of quartz, pseudomalachite, dioptase, neotocite, gypsum, paratacamite and melanothallite, and its surface exhibits nanometer‐sized cylindrical morphologies. All these characteristics suggest an exotic origin for the Angélica copper deposit. A few vein‐type copper deposits situated at the southwestern sector along the NE‐oriented fault are inferred as the possible source of the Angélica copper deposit.