不同强风样本湍流特性参数的计算分析

在结构风工程中, 风湍流统计参数计算的正确与否直接影响到风荷载的计算精度。在实际风参数计算与分析中, 多选用风速较大的样本资料, 但过分强调大风可能产生不合理的计算结果。利用超声风速仪瞬时风速观测资料, 分别划分成相对强风和持续强风样本, 计算并比较其湍流统计特性参数, 发现湍流统计参数特性值 (湍流度、阵风因子、摩擦速度等) 与风速大小并不能很好匹配, 有时风速不大但其湍流特性值却很大, 反之也然。研究表明:选取的湍流风资料样本或统计方法不同, 都会影响风特性参数的计算结果, 进而影响到风荷载计算的精度。这一结果对于提高结构风工程中风参数计算与设计的科学性和合理性具有现实意义。     

用于风电场功率预测的逐时风速预报

为满足风电场精细化风速预报的需要,利用MM5模式的格点输出数值预报产品以及福建沿海地区两座海上测风塔的逐时气象资料,采用逐步回归的统计方法,将MM5数值预报产品与测风塔实测气象资料要素指标值共同引入回归方程,拟合两座测风塔特定高度的逐小时风速预报方程,详细介绍了该方法的实现过程.通过一年的预报效果指标以及15日的独立样本效果检验,结果表明该方法对于逐小时风速的预报有一定的应用价值.     

Discussion on Coastal Erosion Near Xizhuang, Penglai, China

-In this work, on the basis of the characteristics of coastal erosion near Xizhuang (Penglai, Shandong, China) and the in-situ measured data and theoretical calculation, the causes of coastal erosion there are obtained: (1) natural erosion, (2) beach sand borrowing, and (3) sand borrowing at the Dengzhou shoal near Xizhuang, which results in the loss of the function of the wave force resistance of the shoal. Since the wave energy is increased, the longshore sediment transport rate is increased. Coastal erosions are more and more serious. A scientific basis to reduced the calamity of coastal erosion in local area is presented. Some experiences are accumulated for studying coastal erosion.     

海洋沉积物中烃类化合物预处理条件优化及应用

运用分辨率高、稳定性好的ＨＰ６８９０ 毛细管气相色谱仪定性、定量测定海洋沉积物中的正构烷烃和多环芳烃。对沉积物样品的预处理中抽提、蒸发、柱层析、萃取等步骤条件进行优化。优化方法中,正构烷烃系列化合物回收率为６５ ％ ～７６ ％ ,多环芳烃系列化合物为８８ ％ ～９５％ ,标准偏差是２．７％ ～２０．２％ （ｎ＝ ３）     

阿拉善地块北缘的蛇绿混杂岩带及其大地构造意义

阿拉善地块北缘新近发现两条蛇绿混杂岩带,即恩格尔乌苏蛇绿混杂岩带和查干础鲁蛇绿混杂岩带。这两条蛇绿混杂岩带在地球化学特征和构造特征等方面都有各自的特点。前者规模巨大,表现为洋壳的性质,是华北地台和中亚陆块的最终缝台线;后者表现为弧后小洋盆的性质,是华北地台北缘的一条岛弧和地台的缝合线。这两条蛇绿混杂岩带的发现,以及对它们性质的研究。对该区的构造单元划分和大地构造演化研究有着重要的意义。并为邻区的对比研究提供了依据。     

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.     

PI算法用于川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验

作为一个中长期地震预测方法,基于复杂系统统计物理的图象信息学PI算法近年来广受关注．针对7级以上强震成组和突发交替的川滇地区,考虑将与其构造和地震活动关系密切,且强震频发的安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的强震预测研究区,使用PI算法进行MW7.0及以上预测ldquo;目标震级rdquo;的地震危险性分析．计算中使用了1973年以来的NEIC目录,采用10年尺度的地震活动ldquo;异常学习rdquo;时段和3年尺度ldquo;预测时间窗rdquo;,对预测效果进行了ROC检验．回溯性研究显示,PI预测效果较好,表明将川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的7以上强震PI预测研究区在统计上具有合理性．从统计物理角度,研究区组合前后的各态遍历性曲线显示,组合后的研究区对PI的适用程度虽不优于单独考虑川滇地区,但优于安达曼-苏门答腊地区．PI图象显示,2008震前可能存在中长期尺度的ldquo;前兆性rdquo;地震活动异常．      

中国北方农牧交错带人类生存环境的过去,现在和未来

中国北方农牧业交错带是我国生产最不稳定的地带，风、旱、冻、雪等灾害频繁出现，具有敏感而脆弱的人地关系。文章在研究了该地带人类生存环境的演化及其规律的基础上，对未来百年人类的生存环境作了预测。     

热处理饱水致密砂岩的水相自吸与返排

致密砂岩气藏在开发过程中由于水相的侵入或滞留会在近井带或水力裂缝面造成水相圈闭损害,严重影响开发效益.储层高温热处理作为一种新型储层改造技术,已应用于解除近井地带水相圈闭损害.选取鄂尔多斯盆地典型致密砂岩岩样,分别采用干岩样、饱和蒸馏水、饱和3%KCl溶液以及饱和地层水的岩心开展了100～600℃的热处理实验;进行了超过阈值温度的高温热处理前后的岩心自吸、返排实验,并对热处理前后岩心的水相圈闭损害程度进行评价.研究表明,饱和蒸馏水和饱和3%KCl溶液的岩样在热处理后的增渗率明显大于干岩样和饱和地层水的岩样,且岩样热致裂的阈值温度明显降低,从干岩样时500℃降低到300℃;高温热处理增加致密砂岩孔隙度与渗透率,不仅使水相自吸量与自吸速率明显提高,而且岩心渗透率恢复率显著提升.致密岩石热致裂阈值温度可以降低,热增渗后不仅解除水相圈闭损害,而且可以预防后期作业储层水相圈闭损害.     

区域极轨卫星ATOVS辐射偏差订正方法研究

近年来,卫星辐射资料在数值天气预报(NWP)系统中的直接同化研究取得了长足进展.为了利用TIROS业务垂直探测器(ATOVS)的辐射资料,必须对卫星观测辐射值的系统性偏差进行订正.在ECMWF原全球TOVS辐射偏差订正方案基础上,结合ATOVS资料特征和中国的实际情况,建立了适用于区域NOAA-15/16/17极轨气象卫星ATOVS辐射资料的偏差订正方案.该方案偏差订正分两步进行:首先进行扫描偏差订正,然后进行气团偏差订正.扫描偏差是临边测量相对于星下点测量的系统偏差,统计显示该种偏差具有一定的纬度依赖性,所以订正时按每10度的纬度带分别进行订正.气团偏差订正主要就是根据当时的天气条件进行订正,而天气条件一般用预报因子来定量表示.文中从中国国家气象中心T213背景场导出预报因子:(1) 1000-300 hPa的厚度,(2) 200-50 hPa的厚度,(3) 模式地表温度,(4) 总可降水量.模式预报因子的使用从观念上将对观测值的订正变为对计算前向辐射值的订正问题.试验结果表明,订正结果显著.