中国暴雨的科学与预报：改革开放40年研究成果

总结了改革开放以来中国学者在暴雨科学与预报领域取得的重要研究进展和主要成果。其中,暴雨机理研究成果从重要天气系统、中国主要区域的暴雨、台风暴雨等3个方面分别进行综述,而暴雨预报技术研发与应用则从中国数值天气预报发展和暴雨预报客观方法两方面进行归纳。      

Patterns and trajectories of macrophyte change in East China’s shallow lakes over the past one century

Macrophytes play important roles in maintaining ecosystem health and stability of shallow lakes. Better understanding of their long-term dynamics has important theoretical and practical significance for both lake ecosystem restoration and eutrophication control. However, the knowledge about the historical status and changing patterns of macrophytes in China's shallow lakes is still controversial and lacks systematic research. Here, we reviewed and synthesized the published records of submerged macrophytes from 14 typical shallow lakes in the eastern plain covering the past 100 years. The results suggest that submerged macrophytes have experienced three clear stages of change: rare period(the 1900 s–the 1950 s), growth period(the1950 s–the 1980 s), and recession period(the 1980 s–now). This finding is different from the traditional understanding that submerged macrophytes were abundant in the early 20 th century and have been degrading since then. On this basis, we proposed the possible evolution pattern(less-more-less) of submerged macrophytes in the eastern plain lake region over the past 100 years,which provides new perspectives about the long-term evolution process of macrophytes in shallow lakes. Furthermore, we found that the decline of submerged macrophytes during the regime shift shows a gradual process at the interdecadal scale; this finding contradicts the classical regime shift theory that macrophytes decline sharply during the critical transition. This study has important theoretical value for the restoration of the eastern plain lakes in China from "turbid lake" to "clear lake", especially for establishing the historical reference condition and restoration path of macrophytes.     

河南省史前人类遗址的时空分布及其驱动因子

基于ArcGis10.0 平台分析了河南省史前时期的仰韶文化遗址和龙山文化遗址的空间分布、濒河性、空间集聚度等指标。结果显示,18.8%的仰韶期遗址分布在河流的1 km缓冲区内,而龙山期遗址只有16.5%,其濒河性呈减弱趋势。豫西山区、南阳盆地、颍河-淮河地区龙山期遗址的空间集聚度比仰韶期分别增加了0.006,0.016 和0.021,暗示龙山时期的自然条件逊色于仰韶期导致人类活动范围受到局限。遗址密度3-D分析表明,河南地区史前人类活动格局从仰韶期的“单核型”演化为龙山时期的“多核型”。这种空间格局的变化可能与5.4 kaBP降温事件相关,而且龙山期的气候特征与仰韶时期相比显得温凉、干燥,加之农业生产技术的进步和人口增加促使史前人类活动核心区从豫西山区向豫东平原和豫北平原地区扩散。同时4.0 ka BP前后河南地区的干旱、洪水、低温等自然灾害频发亦加速了人类活动范围的快速扩展,并且石家河、大汶口、关中等史前文化类型向河南地区的渗透,造成河南龙山文化类型的多元化和空间分布的复杂化。而全新世早期的裴李岗遗址和晚期的二里头遗址数目较少且均匀分布于嵩山两翼,初步推测环嵩山地区是河南史前文化的肇源地区。     

北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析

针对北京市2016年12月16~21日的空气重污染过程进行了回报试验,探讨了该次事件预报的目标观测敏感区。使用新一代高分辨率中尺度气象模式（Weather Research Forecasting,WRF）和嵌套网格空气质量模式（Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System,NAQPMS）,针对初始气象场的不确定性,通过4套初始场资料识别了影响北京地区细颗粒物（PM2.5）预报水平的目标观测敏感变量及其敏感区。结果表明:当综合考虑初始气象场的风场、温度、比湿不确定性的影响时,发现改善黑龙江区域上述气象要素的初始场精度,对北京地区PM2.5预报不确定的减小最显著;当分别考察风场、温度、比湿的不确定性的影响时,发现初始风场精度的改善,尤其是黑龙江区域风场精度的改善,能够更大程度地减小北京地区PM2.5的预报误差,对北京东南地区的PM2.5预报误差的减小甚至可达到40%以上。因此,优先对黑龙江区域的气象场,尤其是该区域的风场进行目标观测,并将其同化到预报模式的初始场中,将会有效提高初始气象场的质量,进而大大减小北京地区PM2.5浓度的预报误差,提高北京地区空气质量的预报技巧。初始风场代表了北京地区该次空气重污染事件预报的目标观测变量,而黑龙江地区则是该目标观测的敏感区域。     

The Time and Regime Dependencies of Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the CNOP Method

This study examines the time and regime dependencies of sensitive areas identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method for forecasts of two typhoons.Typhoon Meari(2004) was weakly nonlinear and is herein referred to as the linear case,while Typhoon Matsa(2005) was strongly nonlinear and is herein referred to as the nonlinear case.In the linear case,the sensitive areas identified for special forecast times when the initial time was fixed resembled those identified for other forecast times.Targeted observations deployed to improve a special time forecast would thus also benefit forecasts at other times.In the nonlinear case,the similarities among the sensitive areas identified for different forecast times were more limited.The deployment of targeted observations in the nonlinear case would therefore need to be adapted to achieve large improvements for different targeted forecasts.For both cases,the closer the forecast time,the higher the similarities of the sensitive areas.When the forecast time was fixed,the sensitive areas in the linear case diverged continuously from the verification area as the forecast period lengthened,while those in the nonlinear case were always located around the initial cyclones.The deployment of targeted observations to improve a special forecast depends strongly on the time of deployment.An examination of the efficiency gained by reducing initial errors within the identified sensitive areas confirmed these results.In general,the greatest improvement in a special time forecast was obtained by identifying the sensitive areas for the corresponding forecast time period.     

气旋波动研究进程及研究方法

较全面地回顾与阐述了气旋波动研究进程及研究方法, 其中包括Bjerknes气旋模式, 以及Bjerknes and Solherg (1922) 提出的温带气旋生命循环和Petterssen (1956) 对气旋温度结构的描述, 并指出凝结潜热及地形对气旋发展的作用。还较详细地介绍了Petterssen (1956) 气旋发展理论、倾斜涡度发展理论、来自准地转 方程及位涡思考的气旋生成理论, 以及高空超长波系统发展与高空急流加强有利于低层爆发性气旋发展的学术观点, 为气旋的研究提供了历史研究背景、研究思想及方法。     

LNG低温复合软管疲劳特性及参数化分析研究

LNG低温复合软管具有强度高、重量轻、柔韧性好等优点,可以满足恶劣海况下LNG的输送需求,但其结构复杂,且面临多种耦合载荷作用下的疲劳失效问题。首先建立了LNG低温复合软管的有限元模型,研究了复合软管在弯曲和内压载荷下的力学响应和弯曲疲劳寿命特性;然后改变螺旋钢丝直径、预紧间距、导程和纤维层数及摩擦系数等参数,对软管的弯曲疲劳寿命进行了参数化分析。结果表明预紧间距、导程和纤维层数对复合软管的疲劳损伤影响显著：预紧间距增大时,复合软管疲劳损伤先增大后减小;导程减小或者层数增加时,复合软管的疲劳损伤会明显减小;摩擦系数对疲劳损伤几乎没有影响。研究成果可为低温复合软管的结构设计提供理论参考。     

Progress in the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability of Weather and Climate in China (2007--2011)

Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China (2007-2011) are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types:(1) progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and (2) progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following:(1) the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.     

The Impact of Verification Area Design on Tropical Cyclone Targeted Observations Based on the CNOP Method

This study investigated the impact of different verification-area designs on the sensitive areas identified using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method for tropical cyclone targeted observations.The sensitive areas identified using the first singular vector (FSV) method,which is the linear approximation of CNOP,were also investigated for comparison.By analyzing the validity of the sensitive areas,the proper design of a verification area was developed.Tropical cyclone Rananim,which occurred in August 2004 in the northwest Pacific Ocean,was studied.Two sets of verification areas were designed;one changed position,and the other changed both size and position.The CNOP and its identified sensitive areas were found to be less sensitive to small variations of the verification areas than those of the FSV and its sensitive areas.With larger variations of the verification area,the CNOP and the FSV as well as their identified sensitive areas changed substantially.In terms of reducing forecast errors in the verification area,the CNOP-identified sensitive areas were more beneficial than those identified using FSV.The design of the verification area is important for cyclone prediction.The verification area should be designed with a proper size according to the possible locations of the cyclone obtained from the ensemble forecast results.In addition,the development trend of the cyclone analyzed from its dynamic mechanisms was another reference.When the general position of the verification area was determined,a small variation in size or position had little influence on the results of CNOP.