Managing Depleting Gold Revenues in Mali: An Assessment of Policy Options

This paper analyzes the impact of medium-term policy options in the context of gold resources depletion in Mali. Using a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model calibrated to a 2006 Malian Social Accounting Matrix, we assess the impact of gold resources depletion in Mali and two policy options: the adoption of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and a “borrow and invest” scenario consisting at boosting public investment by 5% points of GDP. The depletion of gold resources in Mali would cause a substantial fall in GDP growth, and lead to unsustainable fiscal path if the government were to keep its current pattern of spending. Adopting either the “borrow and invest” fiscal approach or the PIH is likely to generate higher growth and a more sustainable fiscal framework compared to the status quo.     

Application of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine in Mapping Gold Potential Areas for Further Drilling in the Sari-Gunay Gold Deposit,NW Iran

In this contribution, we used discriminant analysis (DA) and support vector machine (SVM) to model subsurface gold mineralization by using a combination of the surface soil geochemical anomalies and earlier bore data for further drilling at the Sari-Gunay gold deposit, NW Iran. Seventy percent of the data were used as the training data and the remaining 30 % were used as the testing data. Sum of the block grades, obtained by kriging, above the cutoff grade (0.5 g/t) was multiplied by the thickness of the blocks and used as productivity index (PI). Then, the PI variable was classified into three classes of background, medium, and high by using fractal method. Four classification functions of SVM and DA methods were calculated by the training soil geochemical data. Also, by using all the geochemical data and classification functions, the general extension of the gold mineralized zones was predicted. The mineral prediction models at the Sari-Gunay hill were used to locate high and moderate potential areas for further infill systematic and reconnaissance drilling, respectively. These models at Agh-Dagh hill and the area between Sari-Gunay and Agh-Dagh hills were used to define the moderate and high potential areas for further reconnaissance drilling. The results showed that the nu-SVM method with 73.8 % accuracy and c-SVM with 72.3 % accuracy worked better than DA methods.     

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.     

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant,NE Iran

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmed by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.     

Optimizing Ore–Waste Dig-Limits as Part of Operational Mine Planning Through Genetic Algorithms

Dig-limit optimization is an operational decision making problem that significantly affects the value of open-pit mining operations. Traditionally, dig-limits have been drawn by hand and can be defined as classifying practical ore and waste boundaries suiting equipment sizes in a bench. In this paper, an optimization approach based on a genetic algorithm (GA) was developed to approximate optimal dig-limits on a bench, given grade control data, equipment constraints, processing, and mining costs. A case study was conducted on a sample disseminated nickel bench, in a two destination and single ore-type deposit. The results from using the GA are compared to hand-drawn results. The study shows that GA-based approach can be effectively used for dig-limit optimization.     

Bitumen Prices and Structural Changes in North American Crude Oil Markets

In an earlier report, changes in bitumen prices at Hardesty, Alberta, Canada, were modeled as the responses to changes in monthly prices of Hardesty light/medium crude oil for the period 2000–2006 with a simple error correction econometric model. This note re-examines that price relationship for the period 2009–2014. Over the period 2006–2014, there was also rapid growth in North American light oil production from low-permeability carbonate, sandstone, and shale reservoirs. During that period, Canadian raw bitumen production grew by more than 12% per year and there was significant geographical diversification in its markets. Results of the statistical analysis showed that the change in the dynamic relationships between bitumen prices and Hardesty light oil prices probably reflected, in part, the maturation of bitumen markets and closer integration with North American light oil markets. The analysis also examines the dynamic relationships between bitumen prices and West Texas Intermediate and Brent international benchmark crude oil prices. Ideally, if bitumen prices are found to be closely related to a widely traded benchmark crude oil, the benchmark crude oil price forecasts could be used as a basis for predicting bitumen prices. However, neither of international benchmark crude oils tested had high explanatory power.     

Effects of experimental warming on soil microbial communities in two contrasting subalpine forest ecosystems,eastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Soil microbial communities are primarily regulated by environmental temperature. Our study investigated the effects of global warming on soil microbial community composition as measured via phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and soil chemical characteristics in relation to soil depth in a dragon spruce plantation and a spruce-fir-dominated natural forestin the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. Open-top chambers were utilized to increase the soil and air temperature. Soil samples were collected from the 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-30 cm layers after a 4-year warming. Our results showed that the soil microbial community and the contents of TC (Total carbon), TN (Total nitrogen), NO ₃ ^- , and NH ₄ ⁺ responded differently to warming in the two contrasting forests, especially at the 0-10 cm soil depth. Warming increased soil microbial biomass at the 0-20 cm depth of soil in natural forest but reduced it at the 0-10 cm depth ofsoil in the plantation. In contrast, the TC and TN contents were reduced in most soil layers of a natural forest but increased in all of the soil layers of the plantation under warming conditions. This result suggested that the effects of warming on soil microbial community and soil C and N pools would differ according to soil depth and forest types; thus, the two contrasting forests would under go differing changes following the future climate warming in this region.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.