Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24–?)

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.     

Generalized Averaging Principle and the Secular Evolution of Planet Crossing Orbits

Planet crossing orbits give rise to mathematical singularities that make it not possible to apply the classical averaging principle to study the qualitative evolution of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs). Recently this principle has been generalized to deal with crossings in a mathematical model with the planets on circular coplanar orbits. More accuracy is needed to compute the averaged evolution of planet crossing orbits for different purposes: computing reliable crossing times for the averaged motion, writing more precise proper elements and frequencies for NEAs, etc. In this paper we present the generalization of the averaging principle using a model where the eccentricity and the inclination of the planets are taken into account.     

Geological and archaeological evidence of active faulting on the Martana Fault (Umbria–Marche Apennines,Italy) and its geodynamic implications

This paper examines the morphotectonic and structural–geological characteristics of the Quaternary Martana Fault in the Umbria–Marche Apennines fold‐and‐thrust belt. This structure is more than 30 km long and comprises two segments: a N–NNW‐trending longer segment and a 100°N‐trending segment. After developing as a normal fault in Early Pleistocene times, the N–NNW Martana Fault segment experienced a phase of dextral faulting extending from the Early to Middle Pleistocene boundary until around 0.39 Ma, the absolute age of volcanics erupted in correspondence to releasing bends. The establishment of a stress field with a NE–ENE‐trending σ₃ axis and NW–NNW σ₁ axis in Late Pleistocene to Holocene times resulted in a strong component of sinistral faulting along N–NNW‐trending fault segments and almost pure normal faulting on newly formed NW–SE faults. Fresh fault scarps, the interaction of faulting with drainage systems and displacement of alluvial fan apexes provide evidence of the ongoing activity of this fault. The active left‐lateral kinematic along N–NNW‐trending fault segments is also revealed by the 1.8 m horizontal offset of the E–W‐trending Decumanus road, at the Roman town of Carsulae. We interpret the present‐day kinematics of the Martana Fault as consistent with a model connecting surface structures to the inferred north‐northwest trending lithospheric shear zone marking the western boundary of the Adria Plate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extrusion vs. accretion at the frictional–viscous décollement transition in experimental thrust wedges: the role of convergence velocity

In many cases, thrust wedges accreted at shallow crustal levels show an across‐strike rheological variability along the basal décollement, notably from brittle to ductile behaviour. In this paper, we illustrate the results of sandbox analogue modelling research devoted to studying the influence of convergence velocity on wedge architecture when laterally juxtaposed frictional and viscous materials occur along the basal décollement of accreting thrust wedges. Our results show that slow convergence favours a near symmetrical distribution of thrust vergence within wedge sectors accreted above viscous décollement material, whereas fast convergence favours vergence asymmetry. In particular, at fast convergence rates the hinterlandward extrusion of viscous décollement material at the toe of the frictional wedge is favoured and contributed to accommodate a significant amount of the total contraction. Terra Nova, 18, 241–247, 2006     

Mineral chemistry and petrogenesis of granular ejecta from the Alban Hills volcano (Central Italy)

Summary A suite of lithics (ejecta) collected from the latest erupted pyroclastic products of the Alban Hills volcano (Central Italy) has been studied to determine their mineralogical composition and to investigate their genesis. The ejecta commonly have granular texture and consist of coarse-grained crystals often associated with a fine- to medium-grained matrix. The mineralogical composition is variable and consists of both typical igneous minerals and contact metamorphic phases. Garnet, clinopyroxene K-feldspar are almost ubiquitous, whereas leucite, wollastonite, sodalite-group minerals, phlogopite, nepheline and phillipsite are present in most of the ejecta; minor and accessory phases include cuspidine, amphibole, pyrrhotite, magnetite, apatite, uranpyrochlore, sphene, kalsilite, and melilite; anorthite, zircon and fluorine-bearing Ca, Zr silicate phases, larnite, and baryte are found sporadically. Ca, REE, Th silicophosphates occur in many samples generally disseminated along interstices and fractures of main minerals. Calcite is present as discrete crystals sometimes enclosed in other minerals, as granules in the fine-grained matrix and as late microcrystalline veins. It shows high oxygen and low carbon isotope ratios with δ¹⁸O = + 17.96 to + 27.19, and δ¹³C = −4.74 to −19.57. Clinopyroxene ranges from diopside to compositions strongly enriched with both Ca-Tschermak’s and esseneite components. Feldspars are generally potassic even though Ba and Sr are found in significant concentrations in some samples. K-feldspars from wollastonite-bearing ejecta are often rimmed with elongated felty crystals identified by X-ray diffraction analysis as leucite. These feldspars show a depletion in Si, and enrichment in Al and K from core to rim. Significant compositional variations are also shown by various other phases such as nepheline, apatite, Ca, REE, Th silicophosphate. The occurrence of igneous and contact metamorphic minerals, as well as the chemical variations of clinopyroxenes and feldspars in the investigated ejecta reveal complex genetic processes related to the interaction between potassic magma and wall rocks. The Ca-rich composition of most phases points to a carbonate nature for the wall rocks. Textural evidence suggests that coarse-grained rocks formed at the margin of the magma chamber were invaded by a late, volatile rich potassic liquid which crystallized as a fine-grained matrix and produced disaggregation and reaction of early formed minerals. Fluid phases percolating through the rocks generated infiltration metasomatism and deposited some uncommon phases rich in Ca, REE, Th, U, which are found along cracks and at the margins of early crystallized minerals. Overall, the all spectrum of the minerals found in this study are also typical of carbonatitic rocks. Their presence in the Alban Hills ejecta demonstrates that their genesis can be related to interaction between ultrapotassic melts and carbonate wall rocks, in addition to precipitation from carbonatitic melts. Received February 20, 2001; revised version accepted September 23, 2001     

Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.     

Tropicality,the unruly Atlantic and social utopias: the French explorer Henri Coudreau (1859 − 1899)

This paper addresses the works of Henri Coudreau, a little‐known French explorer of Guiana and Amazonia who was later forgotten by the ‘heroic’ histories of exploration because of his unruliness and nonconformist attitudes. Drawing on the literature of postcolonialism and tropicality as well as on recent studies of anti‐colonialist geographies, I address for the first time Coudreau's geography from the perspective of anarchist and critical thinking. My main argument is that Coudreau's work is a further example of the complexity and heterogeneity of the European intellectual field during the imperial age. Despite having come of age intellectually among all the European racist and ethnocentric prejudices of his day, Coudreau developed a different outlook thanks to two factors, viz., his personal experience in living for years with the indigenous communities of Amazonia, and his exposure to anarchist anti‐colonialist ideas through his collaboration with Elisée Reclus. Coudreau's tropical utopia of an independent Amazonia, and his endorsement of the stateless nature of local communities, ran counter to French imperial politics, occasioning Coudreau's dismissal from the French administration and his professional exile in Brazil at the time of the Franco‐Brazilian border dispute (1897?1900).     

Accuracy assessment of the GPS-TEC calibration constants by means of a simulation technique

During the last 2 decades, Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements have become a very important data-source for ionospheric studies. However, it is not a direct and easy task to obtain accurate ionospheric information from these measurements because it is necessary to perform a careful estimation of the calibration constants affecting the GPS observations, the so-called differential code biases (DCBs). In this paper, the most common approximations used in several GPS calibration methods, e.g. the La Plata Ionospheric Model (LPIM), are applied to a set of specially computed synthetic slant Total Electron Content datasets to assess the accuracy of the DCB estimation in a global scale scenario. These synthetic datasets were generated using a modified version of the NeQuick model, and have two important features: they show a realistic temporal and spatial behavior and all a-priori DCBs are set to zero by construction. Then, after the application of the calibration method the deviations from zero of the estimated DCBs are direct indicators of the accuracy of the method. To evaluate the effect of the solar activity radiation level the analysis was performed for years 2001 (high solar activity) and 2006 (low solar activity). To take into account seasonal changes of the ionosphere behavior, the analysis was repeated for three consecutive days close to each equinox and solstice of every year. Then, a data package comprising 24 days from approximately 200 IGS permanent stations was processed. In order to avoid unwanted geomagnetic storms effects, the selected days correspond to periods of quiet geomagnetic conditions. The most important results of this work are: i) the estimated DCBs can be affected by errors around ±8 TECu for high solar activity and ±3 TECu for low solar activity; and ii) DCB errors present a systematic behavior depending on the modip coordinate, that is more evident for the positive modip region.