Holocene environmental change resets lichen surface dates on Recess Peak glacial deposits in the Sierra Nevada,California

Development of an accurate chronology for glacial deposits in the Sierra Nevada has long been problematic given the lack of suitable organic material for radiocarbon dating. Lichenometry initially appeared promising as ages showed an increase from cirque headwalls to down-canyon moraines. However, while Recess Peak lichen age estimates range from 2 to 3 ka, recent work shows these deposits to be at least 10 ka older. Here, we present evidence for a late Holocene reset of Recess Peak lichen ages by significant post-depositional climate change. Following late-Pleistocene deposition of Recess Peak moraines, warming through the mid-Holocene allowed forests to advance into shallow basins eliminating local inverted tree lines. This produced a partial canopy where shading killed the original post-Pleistocene crustose lichen colonies. Late-Holocene cooling resulted in forest retreat from these basins as alpine tree line fell. Lichens then recolonized the re-exposed Recess Peak deposits. We conclude that while Recess Peak lichen ages are accurate to within the dating uncertainty of the technique, existing lichen ages actually date the timing of post-mid-Holocene cooling and recolonization, and not the original emplacement of these deposits. Thus, applications of Lichenometry should consider post-depositional environmental change when interpreting the meaning of these dates.     

The localization accuracy of a horizontal array observing anarrowband target with partial coherence

The Cramer-Rao lower bound is used to assess the potential localization accuracy of a horizontal array observing a narrowband moving target. The narrowband signal received by the array is assumed to have only partial temporal coherence, which is modeled by taking the signal to be completely coherent over a data block but with an unknown absolute phase from block to block. A numerical example for a linear array illustrates the improvement in localization accuracy caused by an increase in the signal coherence time. The effect of target/array geometry is also studied     

Monitoring playa lake inundation in the western United States: Modern analogues to late-Holocene lake level change

Closed basin playas are among the most sensitive hydrologic systems globally and are excellent indicators of current and past climatic variability. This variability can significantly impact hydrologic regimes and biotic communities, and is often expressed in lake-bed deposits and shoreline features. We analyzed two playa basins in western North America that lie to either side of the current divide between monsoon and westerly precipitation regimes. Using a 23-year sequence of Landsat images at a 16-day time step, we determined the playa inundation response to varying precipitation inputs. Our results show that a strongly contrasting lake-inundation response occurs in lake basins separated by only 200 km. The Animas/Lordsburg Basin shows a marked lake-area increase in response to winter precipitation events, while the more southerly Palomas Basin shows a stronger response to monsoonal and El Niño-type events. This sensitivity to different input sources over short distances may explain some of the apparent asynchronous behavior of playa response found in lake records. Comprehensive regional-scale inundation records could be used to understand the dynamics of playa inundation events and how these events are linked to atmospheric circulation, and possibly to understand the observed asynchronous behavior of lake basins during the late Pleistocene and Holocene.     

Sea-surge and wind speed extremes: optimal estimation strategies for planners and engineers

Accurate and precise estimation of return levels is often a key goal of any extreme value analysis. For example, in the UK the British Standards Institution (BSI) incorporate estimates of ‘once-in-50-year wind gust speeds’—or 50-year return levels—into their design codes for new structures; similarly, the Dutch Delta Commission use estimates of the 10,000-year return level for sea-surge to aid the construction of flood defence systems. In this paper, we briefly highlight the shortcomings of standard methods for estimating return levels, including the commonly-adopted block maxima and peaks over thresholds approach, before presenting an estimation framework which we show can substantially increase the precision of return level estimates. Our work allows explicit quantification of seasonal effects, as well as exploiting recent developments in the estimation of the extremal index for handling extremal clustering. From frequentist ideas, we turn to the Bayesian paradigm as a natural approach for building complex hierarchical or spatial models for extremes. Through simulations we show that the return level posterior mean does not have an exceedance probability in line with the intended encounter risk; we also argue that the Bayesian posterior predictive value gives the most satisfactory representation of a return level for use in practice, accounting for uncertainty in parameter estimation and future observations. Thus, where feasible, we propose a Bayesian estimation strategy for optimal return level inference.     

Can developed economies combat dangerous anthropogenic climate change without near-term reductions from developing economies?

Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.