Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).     

Measurements of indoor radon concentrations and assessment of radiation exposure

In the past decade many international studies have established that the radioactive gas radon is responsible to a large extent for the radiation dose absorbed by the population. Consequently the Swiss Federal Health Office started and sponsored a research program called RAPROS (Radon Programm Schweiz, 1987–1991) to assess the relevant aspects of radon exposure in Switzerland.The average indoor radon concentration in Swiss living rooms is about 60–70 Bq m⁻³, this corresponds to an annual dose of about 2.2 mSv, but values largely exceeding 1000 Bq m⁻³ were also found. Often very strong temporal fluctuations of indoor radon concentrations were measured.The ground directly underneath buildings is the main radon source of indoor radon. The material properties that influence the radon production and transport in soils are: radium content, emanating coefficient and soil gas permeability; among them only the last one can vary over many orders of magnitude. The permeability is consequently the decisive factor that enables radon transport in the subsurface. To characterize the radon potential of soils a radon availability index (rav) was introduced.Our investigations have also shown that in karst systems the radon concentration in the air is often increased to 10–100 times higher than in buildings. This radon-charged air is able to travel over considerable distances through faults and cavities in the underground and reach living rooms built over karstified areas.     

Changing mountain farmscapes: vulnerability and migration drivers in the Paute River watershed,Southern Ecuador

Abrupt changes in land use/land cover have often characterized Andean rural landscapes. This is particularly notorious in the Paute River watershed in southern Ecuador. We seek to show how, under tenets of the global economy, rural mountain landscapes suffer constant modifications due to the agricultural practices of dwellers and migrants. Erosion of arable slopes takes center stage in analyzing vulnerability due to the high erodibility factor found in this watershed. By using remote sensing and GIS applications, we analyzed the potential erodibility with intersections of rural development constraining of ecosystem services, including the production of water, food, and cultural values in the Paute River watershed. We found six sources of migratory flows and analyzed topographic and elevation effects in potential erodibility indexes of agroecological options to ameliorate the environmental stress. We identified factors associated with migration trends observed in the area and assessed vulnerability issues of resource management that could prevent deforestation, soil erosion, and acculturation amidst the pressures of development in the region. We conclude that sustainable development options can be implemented with a watershed management approach oriented to diminish emigration. This approach shall be integrative, inclusive, and respectful of the rich biocultural diversity heritage conservation of southern Ecuador.