Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale

We propose a probabilistic model to determine landslide hazard at the basin scale. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be. We test the model in the Staffora River basin, in the northern Apennines, Italy. For the study area, we prepare a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1955 and 1999. We partition the basin into 2243 geo-morpho-hydrological units, and obtain the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphological, lithological, structural and land use. For each mapping unit, we obtain the landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming that landslide recurrence will remain the same in the future, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determine the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each mapping unit, for different periods. We obtain the probability of landslide size by analysing the frequency–area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Assuming independence, we obtain a quantitative estimate of landslide hazard for each mapping unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence and of landslide spatial occurrence.     

Debris-flow phenomena in the Central Apennines of Italy

The results of a research project on the extent of debris-flow processes in the Monti Sibillini area (Central Italy) are presented. Debris flows have greatly contributed in shaping the landscape of the Monti Sibillini territory. Based on the dominant active process they can be subdivided into three sections: a source area, a transport area and a depositional area. Four environments can be identified as source areas: landslide deposits, highly fractured rocks, scree or talus deposits, and glacial deposits. The evolution of some of the largest features present in the area is examined. These may have developed from an initial stage of mostly gully erosion and minor landsliding, through an intermediate stage characterized by extensive mass-movement, to a final stage dominated by fluvial processes. Lastly, generalizations on the debris-flow hazard in the study area are made.     

The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..     

Data trustworthiness and user reputation as indicators of VGI quality

ABSTRACT

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) has entered a phase where there are both a substantial amount of crowdsourced information available and a big interest in using it by organizations. But the issue of deciding the quality of VGI without resorting to a comparison with authoritative data remains an open challenge. This article first formulates the problem of quality assessment of VGI data. Then presents a model to measure trustworthiness of information and reputation of contributors by analyzing geometric, qualitative, and semantic aspects of edits over time. An implementation of the model is running on a small data-set for a preliminary empirical validation. The results indicate that the computed trustworthiness provides a valid approximation of VGI quality.     

Correction to: Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

We refine the 1-D velocity model of the Central India Tectonic Zone (CITZ) using well-selected arrival times of P- and S-phases of 354 local earthquakes of magnitude (M_w) between 2.0 and 5.8, recorded by national seismic network from May 1997 to March 2016. Further, we have determined the source mechanisms of 26 selected local events using moment tensor inversion to characterize the dynamics beneath the CITZ. The best-fit simulation between observed and synthetic waveforms obtained the nodal and auxiliary planes of the each faults associated with the earthquake moment magnitude (M_w) for each event. Depth of the fault plane along the CITZ varies from 5 to 38 km. From this study, we found that the western part along the CITZ shows minimum focal depth and reaches maximum 38 kms at Jabalpur in the eastern part. This complex nature of earthquake dynamics occurrence along the CITZ. We propose that the curviplanar the CITZ dominated with sinistral curvature is subjected to compression along the longer ~E–W segments and transtension along shorter segments with ~NE–SW orientations. The occurrences of normal faulting, intrusion of mafic plutons and CLVD mechanisms for earthquakes are interpreted to be linked to the transtension zones and reverse mechanisms associated with the compressions along ~E–W segments.     

Comparing landslide inventory maps

Landslide inventory maps are effective and easily understandable products for both experts, such as geomorphologists, and for non experts, including decision-makers, planners, and civil defense managers. Landslide inventories are essential to understand the evolution of landscapes, and to ascertain landslide susceptibility and hazard. Despite landslide maps being compiled every year in the word at different scales, limited efforts are made to critically compare landslide maps prepared using different techniques or by different investigators. Based on the experience gained in 20 years of landslide mapping in Italy, and on the limited literature on landslide inventory assessment, we propose a general framework for the quantitative comparison of landslide inventory maps. To test the proposed framework we exploit three inventory maps. The first map is a reconnaissance landslide inventory prepared for the Umbria region, in central Italy. The second map is a detailed geomorphological landslide map, also prepared for the Umbria region. The third map is a multi-temporal landslide inventory compiled for the Collazzone area, in central Umbria. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how well the individual inventories describe the location, type and abundance of landslides, to what extent the landslide maps can be used to determine the frequency-area statistics of the slope failures, and the significance of the inventory maps as predictors of landslide susceptibility. We further use the results obtained in the Collazzone area to estimate the quality and completeness of the two regional landslide inventory maps, and to outline general advantages and limitations of the techniques used to complete the inventories.     

Analysis of historical landslide time series in the Emilia‐Romagna region,northern Italy

A catalogue of historical landslides, 1951–2002, for three provinces in the Emilia‐Romagna region of northern Italy is presented and its statistical properties studied. The catalogue consists of 2255 reported landslides and is based on historical archives and chronicles. We use two measures for the intensity of landsliding over time: (i) the number of reported landslides in a day (D_L) and (ii) the number of reported landslides in an event (S_event), where an event is one or more consecutive days with landsliding. From 1951–2002 in our study area there were 1057 days with 1 ≤ D_L ≤?45 landslides per day, and 596 events with 1 ≤ S_event ≤ 129 landslides per event. In the first set of analyses, we find that the probability density of landslide intensities in the time series are power‐law distributed over at least two‐orders of magnitude, with exponent of about ?2·0. Although our data is a proxy for landsliding built from newspaper reports, it is the first tentative evidence that the frequency‐size of triggered landslide events over time (not just the landslides in a given triggered event), like earthquakes, scale as a power‐law or other heavy‐tailed distributions. If confirmed, this could have important implications for risk assessment and erosion modelling in a given area. In our second set of analyses, we find that for short antecedent rainfall periods, the minimum amount of rainfall necessary to trigger landslides varies considerably with the intensity of the landsliding (D_L and S_event); whereas for long antecedent periods the magnitude is largely independent of the cumulative amount of rainfall, and the largest values of landslide intensity are always preceded by abundant rainfall. Further, the analysis of the rainfall trend suggests that the trigger of landslides in the study area is related to seasonal rainfall. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of HVSR technique by wavelet analysis

In this work we investigate the application of the wavelet analysis to improve the well-known horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique for site effect estimation. Wavelet analysis has been widely used in the last decade for its capacity to localise the signal in both the time and frequency domains. The wavelet packet transform and the evaluation of a cost function for every node permit one to remove from the signal the least important components and lead to significant improvements in the identification of the fundamental frequency. In this paper a new algorithm is presented based on wavelet analysis, that allows, in some cases, to improve the identification of the peak in the QTS ratio. A number of examples of application are also presented.