Health risk assessments due to nitrate levels in drinking water in villages of Azadshahr,northeastern Iran

Groundwater is the main water source used for drinking and cooking purposes globally. Nitrate level in most groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid areas has increased in the past several decades as a result of human activities and natural processes. This may exert a great impact on human health. To learn the contamination circumstances of groundwater nitrate in villages of Azadshahr, Iran and assess its probable risk to the health of adults, children and infants, fifty-eight groundwater samples were collected from wells and springs in 2018. Nitrate concentrations had a wide spatial variability in wells and springs of the studied villages, with values going from 1 up to 51 mg/L. Exceedances of the EPA standard value were limited to two village springs (villages Nili and Narab, with nitrate level of 51 and 46 mg/L, respectively). The hazard quotients (HQ) values for 41% of children and infants were above the safety level (i.e., HQ?>?1), suggesting that groundwater nitrate would have significant health effects on these age groups. Therefore, appropriate control measures and sanitation improvement programs should be put in place to protect the health of the residents in the contaminated villages.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

     

Zoning map for drought prediction using integrated machine learning models with a nomadic people optimization algorithm

Natural Hazards - The modelling of drought is of utmost importance for the efficient management of water resources. This article used the adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), multilayer...     

Monthly precipitation assessments in association with atmospheric circulation indices by using tree-based models

Natural Hazards - The Urmia Lake basin is one of the most important basins in Iran, facing many problems due to poor water management and rainfall reduction. Under current circumstances, it becomes...     

Developing an expert group method of data handling system for predicting the geometry of a stable channel with a gravel bed

Predicting the geometry of channels and alluvial rivers is of primary importance in river engineering science. Appropriately designing channels and predicting stable river cross‐sections can decrease costs and prevent the destruction of installations and agricultural land by rivers. Consequently, researchers have applied different empirical and regression methods to achieve relations for predicting stable channel and river geometry. In this study, Group Method of Data Handling ]GMDH) models are used to predict three geometric variables of stable channels, namely width (w), depth (h) and slope (s). The effect of different input parameters, such discharge (Q), median grain size (d₅₀) and the Shields parameter (τ^*) on the GMDH models is assessed with regard to predicting stable channel geometry. The results indicate that the GMDH model with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.53%, 4.05% and 4.89% for channel width, depth and slope prediction respectively, exhibits good accuracy. Moreover, a comparison of the GMDH models with previous theoretical equations (based on regression analysis) indicates the superiority of GMDH model performance, with error reductions of one‐fifth, one‐eighth and one‐sixth compared with the regression equations for channel width, depth and slope prediction, respectively. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GIS-Based Groundwater Potential Mapping in Khorramabad in Lorestan,Iran, using Frequency Ratio (FR) and Weights of Evidence (WoE) Models

Water Resources - In this study groundwater potential map of Khorramabad in Lorestan Province, Iran was produced using two different methods; Frequency Ratio (FR) and Weights of Evidence (WoE)...     

Mineral Chemistry, Trace Elements, Isotopic Analysis and Zircon U-Pb Dating in the Hesar Pluton, Northern UDMA, Iran: Implications for Pre-Collisional Magma Mixing

The Hesar pluton in the northern Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc hosts numerous mafic-microgranular enclaves (MMEs). Whole rock geochemistry, mineral chemistry, zircon U-Pb and Sr-Nd isotopes were measured. It is suggested that the rocks are metaluminous (A/CNK = 1.32–1.45), subduction-related I-type calc-alkaline gabbro to diorite with similar mineral assemblages and geochemical signatures. The host rocks yielded an U-Pb crystallization age of 37.3 ± 0.4 Ma for gabbro-diorite. MMEs have relatively low SiO2 contents (52.9–56.6 wt%) and high Mg# (49.8–58.7), probably reflecting a mantle-derived origin. Chondrite- and mantle-normalized trace element patterns are characterized by LREE and LILE enrichment, HREE and HFSE depletion with slight negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.86–1.03). The host rocks yield (87Sr/86Sr)i ratios of 0.70492–0.70510, positive εNd(t) values of +1.55–+2.06 and TDM2 of 707–736 Ma, which is consistent with the associated mafic microgranular enclaves ((87Sr/86Sr)i = 0.705014, εNd(t) = +1.75, TDM2 = 729 Ma). All data suggest magma-mixing for enclave and host rock formation, showing a complete equilibration between mixed-mafic and felsic magmas, followed by rapid diffusion. The TDM1(Nd) and TDM2(Nd) model ages and U-Pb dating indicate that the host pluton was produced by partial melting of the lower continental crust and subsequent mixing with injected lithospheric mantle-derived magmas in a pre-collisional setting of Arabian–Eurasian plates. Clinopyroxene composition indicates a crystallization temperature of ~1000°C and a depth of ~9 km.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineral chemistry and Ti in zircon thermometry: Insights into magmatic evolution of the Sangan igneous rocks,NE Iran

The Sangan Magmatic complex (SMC) is, a large I-type magmatic complex, located in the northeastern Iran. Zircons extracted from the intrusive and volcanic rocks within the SMC record a similar Hf compositions and REE patterns, indicating that these chemical signatures have likely been inherited from the same source and simple history of magmatic crystallization during the evolution of the orogeny. The zircon from volcanic rocks yield Ti-in-zircon crystallization temperatures of 667–1145?°C with average temperatures of 934?°C while those from granitoids indicate crystallization temperatures of 614–898?°C with an average of 812?°C. Ti-in-zircon, Ti in biotite thermometries also indicates that the crystallization temperatures of volcanic rocks are relatively higher than those of granitoids. The biotite chemistry studies reveal that this mineral crystallized at approximately 725°–800?°C and 758° to 816?°C for granitoid and volcanic rocks, respectively, which is similar to obtained temperatures by Zir-saturation of Eq. (1). T_zicsat and T_magma trend lines on the T-SiO₂ diagram cross at high silica contents of ～68?wt.%, at which temperature the magma becomes zircon-saturated and new zircons are crystallized. The zircon REE data including Ce/Ce*, Eu/Eu*, and Th/U ratios suggest that SMC igneous rocks are formed from oxidized magma. However, the zircon Th/U and Hf data suggest that the SMC became progressively more oxidized and also indicate lower temperatures from volcanic and plutonic rock with decreasing time.