Image transforms for determining fit-for-purpose complexity of geostatistical models in flow modeling

Increased diversity of water or energy resources has led to an increased complexity in models aimed at representing accurately dynamic behavior and geological variability in such systems. In terms of variability of properties at least, simple layered models have mostly been replaced with more complex geostatistical models. The newest trend is to replace covariance-based models with geologically more realistic models such as Boolean, multiple-point, surface-, or process-based models. In this paper, we address the following question: given some design purpose or a set of flow-based decision variables, does adding more complexity increase predictability and ultimately improve decisions based on such models? In this paper, we do not attempt to make any generalizing statements or answer this question with yes/no, but provide some initial ideas on practical workflows to discover the needed complexity. We do treat complexity only in the context of decision making under uncertainty. Two workflows are proposed: complexifying versus simplifying. In these workflows, we attempt to extract, using image transforms, relevant features of the variability between geostatistical realizations that are related to uncertainty in flow dynamics. A simple distance-based calibration between the static variability and dynamic variability provides a means to decide on what the relevant complexity of geostatistical models should be for the given purpose.     

Spatial Statistical Properties of Pressure Solution Seams in Clastic Rocks in Southwest Ireland

Length, height, thickness and spacing measurements of pressure solution seams at outcrop, hand sample and thin section scale were taken from clastic rocks located in the southwest of Ireland. The lengths and spacings of pressure solution seams have similarly shaped (approximately log-hyperbolic) distributions at the observed scales suggesting that length and spacing distributions are scale-independent over the scales studied with a fractal dimension in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Pressure solution seam lengths and thicknesses are related by a power-law and their spacings have a linear relationship to bed thickness. Although pressure solution seams are often considered as anticracks (forming under the same remote stresses as joints, but with opposite sign) we describe how the mechanism of pressure solution differs substantially from that of jointing. We use an existing mechanical model to show that stresses around pressure solution seam tips are much lower than those for joints under equal but opposite loading conditions. Pressure solution seams also have a decreasing tendency to lengthen as they grow, which is reflected in their length distributions. We propose that pressure solution seams, unlike joints, do not reach fracture saturation spacing because of transverse coalescence.     

Water Quality and Phosphorus Budget of Mogan Lake,Turkey

Mogan Lake is the largest recreational area near Ankara, which is the capital city of Turkey. Increased macrophyte growth in the water body and the present levels of urban development within the catchment are reflected in declining water quality and aesthetic deterioation. A study of the water quality of the lake was undertaken to quantify the variation of phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll-a concentrations during ice-free seasons from 1992 to 1994. Its total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations indicate a meso-eutrophic status. The total phosphorus budget of Mogan Lake was measured for a period of 22 months. The estimation of nutrient loading using Dillon-Rigler nutrient budget shows that an artificial load caused too high phosphorus inputs. The management implications of phosphorus loading and budget are discussed.     

Assessment of future olive crop yield by a comparative evaluation of drought indices: a case study in western Turkey

A comparative performance analysis was studied on well-known drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (Orig-Z), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (SC-Z)) to determine the most appropriate index for assessing olive (O. europaea L.) yield for oil in seven crop regions (Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, Manisa, Bal?kesir, ?anakkale, and Bursa) in western Turkey and to evaluate the vulnerability of olive yield for oil to climate change with future projections provided by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ENSEMBLES project (HadCM3Q0). A series of curvilinear regression-based crop yield models were developed for each of the olive-growing regions based on the drought indices. The crop yield model that performed the best was the SC-PDSI model in Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, and Manisa regions and the PDSI model in ?anakkale, Bal?kesir, and Bursa regions. The SC-PDSI index-based model described 65%, 62%, 61%, and 62% of the measured variability of olive yield in Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, and Manisa regions, respectively. The PDSI index-based model explained 59%, 58%, and 64% of the measured variability of olive yield in Bal?kesir, ?anakkale, and Bursa regions, respectively. The vulnerability of the olive yield for oil to HadCM3Q0 future climate projections was evaluated for Ayd?n and ?anakkale regions due to the resolution of the regional climate model. In terms of the future scenarios, the expected decrease in olive yield residuals was 2.5?ton (10³ trees)^?1 and 1.78?ton (10³ trees)^?1 in Ayd?n and ?anakkale regions, respectively.     

A new approach to liquefaction hazard zonation: Application to Laoag City,Northern Philippines

To help mitigate liquefaction hazards in the Philippines, an inexpensive yet effective approach to liquefaction hazard zonation was developed in this study. The proposed approach is also useful in other areas especially where funds for more rigorous procedures may not be available. The approach utilizes the geomorphology-based criteria to identify liquefaction-prone deposits based on geology and grain characteristics, and generate a preliminary liquefaction susceptibility map. Then, microtremor recordings, popularly used in site effect estimation, are gathered to derive qualitative information on the density and thickness of these deposits and generate a site classification map. This latter map is also essentially a ground shaking hazard map in that it shows those areas where thick, soft deposits likely to amplify and prolong the duration of ground motion can be found. Therefore, it also identifies areas where seismic demand can be high that the possibility of liquefaction being triggered is likewise high. Combining the two maps, an integrated liquefaction hazard zonation map is produced which provides not only an improved characterization of the soils’ capacity to resist liquefaction but also integrates qualitative information on the seismic demand on these deposits as well. With information about the relative thickness of the deposits, the severity of potential damage can likewise be inferred from the map since thicker deposits relate to more serious damage. The proposed approach was applied to Laoag City, Northern Philippines, where it was shown to reliably identify areas that are vulnerable to the hazard.     

Microstructural study of a natural slip zone: quantification and deformation history

Microstructure of a natural slip zone was comprehensively examined using a combination of images captured systematically by optical microscopy (OPM) and backscattered electron microscopy (BEM) techniques. Microstructural features identified on these images were processed and evaluated using an advanced image analysis system, which proved that quantitative analyses could considerably enhance the understanding of shear behavior of slip zones. It was found that variations of porosity, abundance of platy clay particles and alignments of particles are significant indicators revealing nature of deformation processes. These indicators show that global mechanical behavior of the investigated slip zone can be conceptualized as that of normally consolidated clayey soils under drained conditions.

The geometric patterns of the microstructure of the slip zone are similar to the S–C fabrics seen in tectonic shear zones. It is suggested that combined progressive bulk simple shear and pure shear modes enable to realistically reconstruct the kinematic history of the slip zone, through which particle movements and microstructural evolution were accomplished via various types of particulate flows. The results of this study show that clay mineralogy plays a more important role in the development of the slip zone than abundance of clay-size particles, while both clay mineralogy and relative proportions of each particle size fraction control the response of particles to shear deformation. Among the fractions present in the slip zone, fine silts are the strongest indicator of global shear stress characterized by their highest degree of alignment, whereas clay particles are the weakest. Highest degree of shape preferred orientation is also found within fine silt domains.     

Fracture void structure: implications for flow, transport and deformation

 This review focuses on studies of flow, transport and deformation processes at a scale of a single discontinuity. The paper provides an evaluation of: (1) various methods suggested for geometrical characterization of void structure; and (2) theoretical and practical problems arising from significant differences between the actual geometry of fracture void structure and its parallel plate representation. The use of an equivalent aperture concept is shown to be seriously misleading in: (a) evaluation of flow regime, and hence selection of appropriate flow laws; (b) correlating tracer and hydraulic tests, and assessment of solute transport properties; and (c) relating hydraulic and mechanical apertures, and predicting influence of stress perturbation and deformability. Received: 2 August 1999 · Accepted: 30 November 1999     

Seismic hazard studies for Gaziantep city in South Anatolia of Turkey

Seismic hazard studies were conducted for Gaziantep city in the South Anatolia of Turkey. For this purpose, a new attenuation relationship was developed using the data of Zaré and Bard and accelerations were predicted employing this new equation. Deterministic approach, total probability theorem and GIS methodology were all together utilized for the seismic assessments. Seismic hazard maps with 0.25° grid intervals considering the site conditions were produced by the GIS technique. The results indicated that the acceleration values by the GIS hazard modelings were matched with the ones from the deterministic approach, however, they were underestimated comparing with the total probability theorem. In addition, the GIS based seismic hazard maps showed that the current seismic map of Turkey fairly yields conservative acceleration values for the Gaziantep region. Therefore, the constructed GIS hazard models are offered as a base map for a further modification of the current seismic hazard map.