A high precision comprehensive evaluation method for flood disaster loss based on improved genetic programming

Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming （GP） solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss （EGFD） on the basis of improved genetic programming （IGP） is presented （IGP-EGFD）. The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.     

Study on methods of land use dynamic monitoring at county level

Remote sensing technique has played an important role in land use dynamic monitoring, but as for the land use dynamic monitoring at county level, traditional remote sensing methods such as satellite imagery visual interpretation and computer classification can not meet its demand for accuracy. The result of 1: 10 000 land use investigation map has high accuracy, but this method can not be used to dynamically monitor the land use because of its big expenses, long period and difficulty in updating data. In this paper, the characteristics of physiognomy, climate and the status of land use in Dehui County are taken into consideration and a set of method, which takes use of 3S techniques and applies to Northeast China Plain, is come up with. When the land use type of a land parcel changed as a whole, the date updating can be make by changing its land type ID in the attribute table in a GIS. When the land use type of an irregular area changed, GPS receivers are used to position its border. This set of method is characteristic of high accuracy and low expenses. It gets the information of land use change timely and can be used to dynamically monitor the land use. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the key project of the National Ninth Five-year Plan (96-B02-01-07). Biography: LI Lin-yi (1968 —), female, a native of Jilin, Ph. D. candidate of Changchun Institute of Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interest includes land use change monitoring and crop yield estimation using “3S” techniques.     

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Spatiotemporal patterns of road network and road development priority in three parallel rivers region in Yunnan, China: An evaluation based on modified kernel distance estimate

Road network is a critical component of public infrastructure,and the supporting system of social and economic development.Based on a modified kernel density estimate(KDE)algorithm,this study evaluated the road service capacity provided by a road network composed of multi-level roads(i.e.national,provincial,county and rural roads),by taking account of the differences of effect extent and intensity for roads of different levels.Summarized at town scale,the population burden and the annual rural economic income of unit road service capacity were used as the surrogates of social and economic demands for road service.This method was applied to the road network of the Three Parallel River Region,the northwestern Yunnan Province,China to evaluate the development of road network in this region.In results,the total road length of this region in 2005 was 3.70×104km,and the length ratio between national,provincial,county and rural roads was 1∶2∶8∶47.From 1989 to 2005,the regional road service capacity increased by 13.1%,of which the contributions from the national,provincial,county and rural roads were 11.1%,19.4%,22.6%,and 67.8%,respectively,revealing the effect of′All Village Accessible′policy of road development in the mountainous regions in the last decade.The spatial patterns of population burden and economic requirement of unit road service suggested that the areas farther away from the national and provincial roads have higher road development priority(RDP).Based on the modified KDE model and the framework of RDP evaluation,this study provided a useful approach for developing an optimal plan of road development at regional scale.     

Diagenetic control of magnetic susceptibility variation in Core MD98-2172 from the Eastern Timor Sea

Detailed mineral magnetic measurements, integrated with grain-size distribution and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses, were made on the marine sediments of Core MD98-2172, retrieved from the Eastern Timor Sea. Values of magnetic susceptibility in this core drop sharply down-core from ∼3.85 m deep below sediment/water interface and are very low at ∼5.35 m. However, both XRD and grain-size distribution results show no sudden change in terrigenous input during sedimentation. Mineral magnetic results indicate that the depth of ∼3.85 m may be an oxic/anoxic boundary. Therefore, the sediments below ∼3.85 m have been subjected to intense reductive diagenesis, whereas the sediments above ∼3.85 m are seldom affected. The magnetic properties of the sediments shallower than 3.85 m are dominated by pseudo-single domain (PSD) magnetite, with little down-core variation in its content and grain size. Below ∼3.85 m, the magnetic mineral assemblages that have survived in the sediments may record different stages of the reductive diagenesis: (1) the sediments from the 3.85–5.35 m interval are at the stage of iron oxide reduction; PSD magnetite is the major magnetic contributor, but it becomes less abundant and coarser down-core; (2) the sediments below ∼5.35 m are at the stage of sulphate reduction; ferrimagnetic minerals almost vanish and paramagnetic minerals contribute to down-core susceptibility variations, including pyrite as evidenced by high-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements. However, the susceptibility variations below ∼5.35 m of Core MD98-2172 show obvious periodicity, despite the intense effect of reductive diagenesis. Furthermore, the down-core susceptibility variations are coincident with fluctuations in the quantity of fine detrital particles (<8 μm), which may come mainly from the advection of the Indonesia Throughflow (ITF) and/or river input from Timor. Therefore, for Core MD98-2172, susceptibility variation below ∼5.35 m, which potentially correspond to fluctuations in the quantity of fine particles, may record the histories of the development of the ITF and precipitation on Timor.     

Puzzling Origin of CEMP-r/s Stars: An Interpretation of Abundance and Enrichment of s- and r-Process Elements from Asymptotic Giant Branch Supernovae

CEMP-r/s stars at low metallicity are known as double-enhanced stars that show enhancements of both r-process and s-process elements. The chemical abundances of these very metal-poor stars provide us a lot of information for putting new restraints on models of neutron-capture processes. In this article, we put forward an accreted scenario in which the double enrichment of r-process and s-process elements is caused by a former intermediate-mass Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) companion in a detached binary system. As the AGB superwind is only present at the ultimate phase of AGB stars, there is thus a lot of potential that the degenerate-core mass of an intermediate-mass AGB star reaches the Chandrasekhar limit before the AGB superwind. In these circumstances, both s-process elements produced in the AGB shell and r-process elements synthesized in the subsequent explosion would be sprayed contemporaneously and accreted by its companion. Despite similarity to physical conditions of a core-collapse supernova, a major focus in this scenario is the degenerate C–O core surrounded by an envelope of a former intermediate-mass AGB donor that may collapse and explode. Due to the existence of an outer envelope, r-process nucleosynthesis is expected to occur. Hypothesizing the material-rich europium (Eu) accreted by the secondary via the wind from the supernova to be in proportion to the geometric fraction of the companion with respect to the exploding donor star, we find that the estimated yield of Eu (as representative of r-process elements) per AGB supernova event is about 1 × 10^?9 M _⊙ ～ 5 × 10^?9 M _⊙. Using the yields of Eu, the overabundance of r-process elements in CEMP-r/s stars can be accounted for. The calculated results show that the value of parameter f , standing for efficiency of wind pollution from the AGB supernova, will reach about 10⁴, which means that the enhanced factor is much larger than unity due to the impact of gravity of the donor and the result of the gravitational focusing effect of the companion.     

论专业气象服务可持续发展若干问题

论述影响专业气象服务可持续发展的８个问题,并具体分析每个问题的特点,指出解决问题的思路。     

Vegetation change of ecotone in west of Northeast China plain using time-series remote sensing data

Multi-temporal series of satellite SPOT-VEGETATION normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) data from 1998 to 2007 were used for analyzing vegetation change of the ecotone in the west of the Northeast China Plain. The yearly and monthly maximal values,anomalies and change rates of NDVI and NDWI were calculated to reveal the interannual and seasonal changes in vegetation cover and vegetation water content. Linear regression method was adopted to characterize the trends in vegetation change. The yearly maximal NDVI decreased from 0.41 in 1998 to 0.37 in 2007,implying the decreasing trend of vegetation activity. There was a significant decrease of maximal NDVI in spring and summer over the study period,while an increase trend was observed in autumn. The vegetation-improved regions and vegetation-degraded regions occupied 17.03% and 20.30% of the study area,respectively. The maximal NDWI over growing season dropped by 0.027 in 1998–2007,and about 15.15% of the study area showed a decreasing trend of water content. Vegetation water stress in autumn was better than that in spring. Vegetation cover and water content variations were sensitive to annual precipitation,autumn precipitation and summer temperature. The vegetation degradation trend in this ecotone might be induced by the warm-drying climate especially continuous spring and summer drought in the recent ten years.     

Comprehensive measurement for carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in central China

Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has impor-tant practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy,sustainable and stable development of this region.Ac-cording to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism,using system dynamics approaches,this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China,and through setting different development models,the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out.The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources,environment,society and economy in the city clusters.According to this model,the optimum population scale of the city clusters in2020 is 42.80×106 persons,and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055× 1012 yuan(RMB).In 1996-2020,the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics.During the studied period,it is basically at the initial development stage,and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.