气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

Ka波段毫米波云雷达对青藏高原东南缘降水回波的分析

利用丽江站新建的Ka波段毫米波云雷达获得的高时间分辨率的垂直观测资料,结合同址的地面自动气象站和雨滴谱的分钟数据、常规探空数据和附近C波段天气雷达的强度回波,分析了两次降水过程前后云雷达反射率因子Z、径向速度V_r、速度谱宽S_w的垂直变化规律。分析表明:在发生弱降水时,云雷达Z在垂直方向的变化不明显;但V_r、S_w值在0℃层稍低位置有一个明显的分界层(融化层),粒子通过融化层后V_r、S_w都是快速变大,这个变化主要是粒子的相态由固态变成液态引发的,可以通过V_r、S_w突变值的位置来识别0℃层亮带的高度。从C波段天气雷达回波强度、剖面图及云雷达位置的时间-高度图看,对毛毛雨和小雨的回波,强度和高度差异比较明显,毛毛雨比小雨回波高度低、强度弱,与云雷达相比C波段雷达对高一些的云观测不到,对距离较远的弱降水回波无法观测到;由于相同粒子对不同波长电磁波的散射不一样,造成两种雷达垂直方向观测到的Z变化不同。对比弱降水回波,云雷达在...     

豫西崤山后河岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义

与豫西小秦岭和熊耳山地区相类似,崤山北部也出露一系列中酸性小岩体,但与之相关的成矿作用明显较弱,因此长期未获得应有的关注。崤山北部小岩体的形成时代与区域成岩成矿时代之间的匹配关系对其深部构造演化研究及成矿潜力评价具有重要意义,鉴于此,作者对后河岩体进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年。后河岩体定年样品HH01的岩性为中-细粒黑云母二长花岗岩,30个锆石测点中有27个测点的测定值位于207Pb/235U-206Pb/238U一致线上,相应的206Pb/238U年龄介于124~134 Ma之间,加权平均年龄为128±1Ma(MSWD=1.02),属早白垩世。后河岩体是岩石圈拆沉作用的产物,其形成时代处在东秦岭地区广泛而强烈的成岩成矿作用时限内,且显示了Au、Ag、Cu、Mo、W等元素的异常富集,具有较大的内生金属成矿潜力。     

Eutrophication,health risk assessment and spatial analysis of water quality in Gucheng Lake,China

The water characteristics of the Gucheng Lake, such as eutrophication, health and spatial distribution, were investigated. On the basis of the trophic state index (TSI) and entropy weight, a synthesized trophic state index (STSI) model was established to assess lake eutrophication condition through calculating STSI, choosing TP, TN, COD, BOD and NH₃-N as trophic variables. The STSI ranged from 50.58 to 62.44, which showed that the water has been between eutrophic and supereutrophic. A histogram was applied to health risk assessment which was analyzed from carcinogenic substances (Cr⁺⁶, As and Cd) and non-carcinogenic substances (hydroxybenzene, Pb, Hg, CN⁻ and NH₃), and the results showed that the former was much greater than the latter for effect. The total risk for each resident caused by all pollutants ranged from 5.18E-05 to 8.34E-05, which is far higher than the standard, recommended by Sweden Bureau of Environment Protection and Holland Ministry of Building and Environment Protection (1.0E-05). Cluster analysis was used to detect similarities and dissimilarities among the seven sampling sites and explain the observed clustering in terms of affected conditions. Twenty-one variables were used to divide seven sampling sites into three groups, namely, north lake, south lake and lake center.     

Epicenter and magnitude of large earthquake determined from high-rate GPS observations: A case study of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

For earthquake and tsunami early warning and emergency response,the earthquake epicenter and magnitude should be determined rapidly and correctly.Using high-rate GPS observations,we can readily obtain precise and high resolution displacement time series and the seismic waveforms during the earthquake.In this paper,a new algorithm is proposed for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude with the seismic waveforms derived from high-rate GPS data during the earthquake.A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is conducted from 1 Hz GPS data and the epicenter and magnitude are determined.Compared with the results issued by the China Seismological Bureau,the estimation error of the epicenter and the magnitude is about 12 km and 0.1 magnitude unit,respectively.It has shown that high-rate GPS could be a new tool feasible for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude,independent of or combined with seismometers.     

Sedimentary characteristics and genetic mechanism of the giant ancient pockmarks in the Qiongdongnan Basin,northern South China Sea

In the late Miocene, giant ancient pockmarks, which are fairly rare globally, developed in the Qiongdongnan Basin. In this paper, to determine the sedimentary characteristics and genetic mechanism of these giant ancient pockmarks in the Yinggehai Formation of the Qiongdongnan Basin, based on high-resolution 3D seismic data and multiattribute fusion technologies, we analyzed the planar distribution and seismic facies of the ancient pockmarks and compared the characteristics of the ancient pockmar...     

两株河口湿地耐盐石油降解菌的生物学特性及降解能力研究

从辽河口湿地污染土壤样品中分离筛选出2株高效石油降解茵lhk-2和lhk-10,经鉴定lhk-2为巴氏萄萄球菌(Staphylococcus pasteuri),lhk-10为嗜麦芽寡养单胞菌(Stenotrophomonasmaltophili).两株菌的石油降解能力研究结果表明,培养8d后,加菌组的石油烃降解率均在...     

山东省栖霞牙山花岗闪长岩岩石地球化学特征及成因探讨

栖霞牙山地区地处华北地台东部,对该区的似斑状花岗闪长岩体所作的岩石地球化学研究表明,该区岩石为钙碱性偏铝质岩石;微量元素MORB标准化蛛网图显示富集大离子亲石元素Ba、Sr,亏损高场强元素Nb、Ta、Hf、Y;K/Rb比值为295.34~388.88,Rb/Sr比值为0.21~0.29;稀土元素蛛网图表现为较平滑的具微弱负Eu异常向右陡倾的稀土元素配分模式曲线,∑LREE/∑HREE为9.14~12.22,显示轻重稀土元素分异较好。结合构造背景分析,认为牙山花岗闪长岩体为早白垩世太平洋板块向欧亚板块俯冲诱发的地幔柱活动,造成地幔底辟,引起地壳部分熔融,形成壳幔混合岩浆并进一步侵入形成。