基于Gassmann方程的流体替换方法在珊溪水库地震研究中的应用

引入基于Gassmann方程的流体替换方法,在分析地震波P波速度、波速比与岩石孔隙度和饱和度关系的基础上,应用于珊溪水库地震波速比和P波速度变化特征研究,得到:(1)珊溪水库震中区岩石始终处于接近水饱和的饱水状态,波速比和P波速度"下降-回升"的变化实质上反映了震中区岩石"孔隙度增大(饱和度减小)-饱和度增大"的变化,每一丛地震的波速比由极小值逐渐增大为极大值是由于岩石从不饱和状态变化到饱和状态;(2)根据每一丛地震波速比的变化,计算得到珊溪水库流体扩散率αs=1.06×104 cm2 s-1,该数值与美国南卡罗莱纳水库、巴西Acu水库、广东新丰江水库的流体扩散率基本一致;(3)震源区岩石孔隙度上限值为8.7%~2.0%,该数值与华东勘测设计研究院通过室内岩石物理力学性质试验测定的珊溪水库坝址区新鲜流纹斑岩的孔隙度平均值一致。     

鄂尔多斯盆地北部泊尔江海子断裂对上古生界天然气成藏的控制

为了揭示泊尔江海子断裂对鄂尔多斯盆地北部杭锦旗地区上古生界天然气成藏的控制作用,应用地震和钻井资料,在断裂活动性分析的基础上,根据断层泥比率和断层连通概率法对泊尔江海子断裂的侧向和垂向封闭性进行半定量评价,探讨断裂和天然气富集区的关系。结果表明：泊尔江海子断裂呈现3次明显的活动高峰期,分别为加里东期-早海西期的断裂形成期、印支期-早燕山期的挤压逆断裂活动期、中晚燕山期的走滑撕裂活动期,而中晚燕山期的走滑撕裂控制了上古生界天然气主要成藏期。断裂的封闭性具有“横向分段、纵向分层”的特点;横向上,以断层泥比率(SGR)等于0.3为界将泊尔江海子断裂分为侧向优势输导区和侧向封闭区;纵向上,在石千峰组和上石盒子组断裂启闭系数基本都小于1.0,断裂垂向封闭,在下石盒子组和山西组断裂启闭系数主要集中在4.0~10.0,断裂垂向开启。在断裂侧向优势输导区,断裂南部主力烃源区生成的天然气,经断裂发生垂向和侧向运移,易在断裂北部地区富集成藏;在侧向封闭区,则易在断裂南部地区富集成藏。     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震余震重定位及其发震构造

整合了鲁甸震区周边的云南省地震台网、昭通市地震台网、巧家台阵,以及流动台站2个月的震相观测数据,对鲁甸地震序列进行了重新定位,得到了1 750个地震的震源参数。重定位结果显示,余震有2个优势分布方向,分别为SE向和SW向,具有不对称的共轭分布特征。2个余震条带的展布长度相当,约为16km,夹角约100°。余震分布显示鲁甸地震的发震断层为高倾角的走滑断层。主震位于2个余震条带中间略偏西南的位置,早期余震主要沿NW-SE向垂直于昭通-鲁甸断裂分布,主震西南侧的余震可能为后期触发的。根据余震分布与周边断层的关系、主震震源机制、烈度分布的长轴方位,以及滑坡分布等资料,认为鲁甸地震的发震断层为NW向的包谷垴-小河断裂。包谷垴-小河断裂南北两侧无论是在地震活动、深部速度结构,还是块体运动方向和速率方面都存在显著差异,断裂北侧的高速异常可能是阻止余震向北继续扩展的主要原因。     

断层气氢浓度观测技术试验研究

In order to explore the new technology and methods for seismic underground fluid observation, a test study on measurement of hydrogen concentration in fault gas is carried out at the piedmont fault zone of Zhongtiao Mountain. Through the experiment on observation positions, gas collection devices and sampling depths, the paper presents the observation method for fault gas hydrogen concentration by using an online automatic trace hydrogen analyzer. Comparative tests are conducted on the stability and optimum conditions of this type of instrument in the field environment, and the hydrogen concentrations at different measuring points of the same fault are observed. The results show that it is technically feasible to carry out continuous hydrogen concentration on a fault zone. The method proposed in this study could be a useful tool for setting the observation points, choosing a reasonable observation depth and scientific analysis of the observed data.     

浅谈如何创新四川省防震减灾宣传工作

文章简要介绍了新形势下四川省防震减灾宣传工作在宣传手段、宣传形式、宣传内容等方面的特点,并通过采取切实有效的措施,使得防震减灾宣传工作初见成效,为今后提高社会公众的防震减灾意识,做好震时科学的救护工作起到积极的作用。     

地震科普视频点播系统的设计与实现

地震的科普知识是公众关心的内容,为了更好地向公众普及地震科普知识,利用流媒体技术设计了基于流媒体技术的地震科普视频点播系统。主要介绍了地震科普视频点播系统的系统设计、系统实现的关键技术以及在地震行业中的应用。     

浙江长兴深井地电台建设

随着人类的活动,地电阻率和地电场观测受到更多干扰。介绍浙江省长兴深井地电台建设过程,并讨论建设中存在的问题,初步分析地电观测资料,证明井下地电阻率和地电场观测在一定程度上可以屏蔽干扰,由此可见建设深井地电台的重要性。     

Economic development,urban expansion,and sustainable development in Shanghai

Studies of urbanization effects in Chinese cities from the aspect of the coupled development of economy and environment are rare due to data limitations. This paper studied Shanghai’s fast urban expansion and examined the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environment consequences at the district level. We extracted data on urban built-up area and land surface temperature from remote sensing images. We analyzed the patterns of urban expansion and land use change and explained the dynamic relationship between economic development and environment conditions. We attributed the uneven economic development and environmental change in districts of Shanghai to four main institutional factors: (1) the role of the government, (2) the multi-level urban planning system, (3) land market reform, and (4) the economic restructuring.     

An alternative approach for computing seismic response with accidental eccentricity

Accidental eccentricity is a non-standard assumption for seismic design of tall buildings. Taking it into consideration requires reanalysis of seismic resistance, which requires either time consuming computation of natural vibration of eccentric structures or finding a static displacement solution by applying an approximated equivalent torsional moment for each eccentric case. This study proposes an alternative modal response spectrum analysis(MRSA) approach to calculate seismic responses with accidental eccentricity. The proposed approach, called the Rayleigh Ritz Projection-MRSA(RRP-MRSA), is developed based on MRSA and two strategies:(a) a RRP method to obtain a fast calculation of approximate modes of eccentric structures; and(b) an approach to assemble mass matrices of eccentric structures. The efficiency of RRP-MRSA is tested via engineering examples and compared with the standard MRSA(ST-MRSA) and one approximate method, i.e., the equivalent torsional moment hybrid MRSA(ETM-MRSA). Numerical results show that RRP-MRSA not only achieves almost the same precision as ST-MRSA, and is much better than ETM-MRSA, but is also more economical. Thus, RRP-MRSA can be in place of current accidental eccentricity computations in seismic design.