A Coal Burst Risk Assessment Model of Seismic Events Based on Multiple Seismic Source Parameters: A Case Study of the Huating Coal Mine,Gansu Province,China

Mining-induced tremors are indispensable events that gestate and trigger coal bursts. The radiated energy is usually considered a key index to assess coal burst risk of seismic events. This paper presents a model to assess coal burst risk of seismic events based on multiple seismic source parameters. By considering the distribution and relation laws of the seismic source parameters of coal bursts, the model aims to identify dangerous seismic events that more closely match the characteristics of multiple seismic source parameters of coal bursts. The new coal burst risk index T is proposed. It consists of the similarity index SI (representing the similarity degree of relations between seismic events and coal burst events based on seismic source parameters) and the strength index ST (representing the burst strength of seismic events). We studied 79 coal burst events that occurred during extraction in LW250105 of the Huating coal mine in Gansu Province, China. We obtained the distribution and relation laws of multiple seismic source parameters of coal burst events to establish SI and ST. Two groups of seismic events with different energy distributions were examined to compare the assessment results based on the new model and energy criteria. The results show that 80% and 89% of seismic events with strong coal burst risk in Groups A and B, respectively, were coincident, and the seismic events with medium coal burst risk were slightly less compared to those based on radiated energy. The results indicate that the assessment based on the T value is a modification and optimization of that based on radiated energy. This model is conducive to improving the efficiency of monitoring and early warning of coal burst risk.

     

祁连山疏勒河源区冻土退化对土壤微生物生物量碳氮的影响

对青藏高原东北缘祁连山西段疏勒河源区多年冻土区0~50 cm土壤微生物生物量碳氮分布特征及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:稳定型和极不稳定型多年冻土区0~50 cm土壤中微生物量碳含量范围分别为0.015~0.620 g/kg和0.019~0.411 g/kg,微生物量氮含量范围分别为0.644~12.770 mg/kg和0.207~3.725 mg/kg;土壤微生物量总体呈现出稳定型显著高于极不稳定型多年冻土,表明多年冻土退化（多年冻土由稳定型退化为极不稳定型）对土壤微生物量积累有明显抑制作用。土壤微生物生物量碳占有机碳、微生物生物量氮占全氮的比值在稳定型多年冻土中显著高于极不稳定型,表明多年冻土退化对土壤微生物的矿化能力有明显抑制作用。土壤微生物量及其与土壤养分的比值有显著的剖面变化特征,随土壤深度增加而减小。土壤微生物量碳氮均与土壤温度显著负相关,与地下生物量显著正相关。稳定型多年冻土中,土壤微生物量碳氮与碳氮比正相关、与氧化还原电位负相关;不稳定型多年冻土中,土壤微生物量碳氮与pH正相关。土壤微生物量碳氮与土壤温度和pH在剖面变化上显著相关。逐步回归分析表明驱动微生物生物量碳氮在不同多年冻土类型和土层之间变化的因子是不同的。     

多维视角下京津冀地区人口集疏时空变化

城镇化过程中,人口集疏是区域空间结构演化的根本动力。基于四普、五普、六普及2015年人口抽样数据,从多维视角分析京津冀地区近25年人口空间分布特征与集疏态势,研究发现：①京津冀地区人口总体分布仍呈西南稠密而东北稀疏格局,交通干线沿线人口地理集中度高;1990—2015年区县尺度上数量差异加剧,且在空间上存在强相关性：人口热点分布呈现以京、津和沿海区域为轴的“T”形结构,冷点区域则小幅扩张呈“C”形结构;②1990—2015年,京、津两市人口集疏空间表现出明显圈层特性,且人口扩散表现“核心-边缘”特性;河北各市人口集中在市辖区,且其周边区县人口流失程度呈阶段性加重。③综合城市规模等级与行政等级视角,城市规模与行政等级挂钩,城市行政等级越高其人口规模越大,人口集聚能力越强;主体功能分区视角下,开发区人口份额在提高,生态功能区人口份额在下降;京津冀地区人口集疏空间在2010年后发生转变,向沿海地区集聚趋势突出,表现出显著临海性。     

Dynamic features of near-inertial oscillations in the Northwestern Pacific derived from mooring observations from 2015 to 2018

Near-inertial oscillation is an important physical process transferring surface wind energy into deep ocean.We investigated the near-inertial kinetic energy(NIKE) variability using acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements from a mooring array deployed in the tropical western Pacific Ocean along130°E at 8.5°N,11°N,12.6°N,15°N,and 17.5°N from September 2015 to January 2018.Spatial features,decay timescales,and significant seasonal variability of the observed NIKE were described.At the mooring sites of 17.5°N,15°N,and 12.6°N,the NIKE peaks occurred in boreal autumn and the NIKE troughs were observed in boreal spring.By contrast,the NIKE at 11°N and 8.5°N showed peaks in winter and troughs in summer.Tropical cyclones and strong wind events played an important role in the emergence of high-NIKE events and explained the seasonality and latitudinal characteristics of the observed NIKE.     

The Potential Vertical Distribution of Bigeye Tuna ( Thunnus obesus ) and Its Influence on the Spatial Distribution of CPUEs in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Understanding the potential vertical distribution of bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) is necessary to understand the catch rate fluctuations and the stock assessment of bigeye tuna. To characterize the potential vertical distribution of this fish while foraging and determine the influences of the distribution on longline efficiency in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the catch per unit effort(CPUE) data were compiled from the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas and the Argo buoy data were downloaded from the Argo data center. The raw Argo buoy data were processed by data mining methods. The CPUE was standardized by support vector machine before analysis. We assumed the depths with the upper and lower limits of the optimum water temperatures of 15℃ and 9℃ as the preferred swimming depth, while the lower limit of the temperature(12℃) associated with the highest hooking rate as the preferred foraging depth(D12) of bigeye tuna during the daytime in the Atlantic Ocean. The preferred swimming depth and foraging depth range in the daytime were assessed by plotting the isobath based on Argo buoy data. The preferred swimming depth and vertical structure of the water column were identified to investigate the spatial effects on the CPUE by using a generalized additive model(GAM). The empirical cumulative distribution function was used to assess the relationship between the spatial distribution of CPUE and the depth of 12℃ isolines and thermocline. The results indicate that 1) the preferred swimming depth of bigeye tuna in the tropical Atlantic is from 100 m to 400 m and displays spatial variation; 2) the preferred foraging depth of bigeye tuna is between 190 and 300 m and below the thermocline; 3) the number of CPUEs peaks at a relative depth of 30 –50 m(difference between the 12℃ isolines and the lower boundary of the thermocline); and 4) most CPUEs are within the lower depth boundary of the thermocline levels(LDBT) which is from 160 m to 230 m. GAM analysis indicates that the general relationship between the nominal CPUE and LDBT is characterized by a dome shape and peaks at approximately 190 m. The oceanographic features influence the habitat of tropical pelagic fish and fisheries. Argo buoy data can be an important tool to describe the habitat of oceanic fish. Our results provide new insights into how oceanographic features influence the habitat of tropical pelagic fish and fisheries and how fisheries exploit these fish using a new tool(Argo profile data).     

Characteristics and Origins of Suspended Pyrite in the Mixing Zone of the Yangtze Estuary

For a long time, most studies about pyrite have focused on sediments while only a few have focused on pyrite in water. In this study, a method that combines the scanning electron microscopy(SEM) and the energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry(EDS) was used to compare pyrite particles suspended in water to those in associated bottom sediments, both obtained from the mixing zone of the Yangtze Estuary. It was found that the pyrite particles in the two media have similar morphologies and size distributions. The particle morphology mainly includes two types, single crystal and aggregate, and the particle size mainly ranges from 0.5 to 2 μm. The pyrite particles in water exhibit an increase in relative content towards the sea, and their transport and deposit processes are mainly affected by hydrodynamic conditions. It is concluded that the pyrite particles in the suspended matter mainly derived from the resuspension of sediments, which are products of the early diagenesis. Precursor minerals may appear during the formation of pyrite, but are generally restricted by the diagenetic environment and local microenvironment.     

成长型城市群产业生态化时空演化特征及其影响因素——以山东半岛城市群为例

该文以山东半岛城市群作为研究对象,构建产业生态化综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法与主成分分析方法,探讨了山东半岛城市群产业生态化总体水平的时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:2004—2016年,山东半岛城市群产业生态化呈现上升趋势,山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展水平不断提高;山东半岛城市群产业生态化空间分异现象显著,形成了以济南和青岛为核心的两极化发展特征;山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展水平的区域化现象愈加明显,呈现出NE—SW走向的不均衡发展;山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展影响因素为区域经济发展水平、政府监管水平、外资利用差异以及区域科学技术差异。     

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...     

改进灰色马尔科夫模型在基坑预测中的研究

基坑预测问题关系到工程施工的安全,在施工过程中对基坑进行周密的监测和变性预测分析显得尤为重要。针对传统预测模型存在固有偏差和可靠性低的缺点,采用新陈代谢的原理对无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型进行改进。该模型先用无偏灰色模型拟合系统的总体变化趋势,然后,对拟合残差进行马尔可夫状态划分,并根据各阶权重对不同步长的转移矩阵进行加权处理,用加权后的无偏灰色马尔科夫模型进行预测。在每一步的预测中,利用新陈代谢的原理不断更新建模所使用的数据。将该模型用于基坑沉降预测,并通过实例进行验证。实验表明:基于新陈代谢的无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型提高了基坑沉降预测的精度和可靠性,预测精度与未改进模型相比提高了8.54%。