气象探空数据动态比对中误差计算方法研究

在高空动态数据比对中,需要同时考虑系统误差与随机误差。采用多个探空仪同球比对施放的方法,从相对系统误差、标准偏差等方面,对被试探空仪进行比对评估,同时采取误差分离方法,计算被试探空仪的随机误差。考虑高空温度在对流层与平流层的不同变化趋势,采取细化分层方式进行计算,以反映大气特性。     

Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain

The mei-yu front heavy rainstorms occurred over Nanjing on 3 5 and 8 9 July 2003 and were simulated in this paper using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFv3.1) with various mesoscale convection parameterization schemes (MCPSs). The simulations show that the temporal and spatial evolution and distribution of rainstorms can be modeled; however, there was incongruity between the comparative simulations of four different MCPSs and the observed data. These disparities were exhibited in the simulations of both the 24-hour surface rainfall total and the hourly precipitation rate. Further analysis revealed that the discrepancies of vertical velocity and the convective vorticity vector (CVV) between the four simulations were attributed to the deviation of rainfall values. In addition, the simulations show that the mid-scale convection, particularly the mesoscale convection system (MCS) formation, can be well simulated with the proper mesoscale convection parameterization schemes and may be a crucial factor of the mei-yu front heavy rainstorm. These results suggest that, in an effort to enhance simulation and prediction of heavy rainfall and rainstorms, subsequent studies should focus on the development and improvement of MCPS.     

华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征

利用1960-2005年华南地区71个测站的逐日降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR南半球月平均海平面气压场再分析资料,采用Le Page榆验、广义极值分布等统计诊断方法,研究了华南地区近46 a前汛期(4-6月)和后汛期(7-9月)极端降水的时空变化及概率分布特征.并讨论了南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压强度指数与华南汛期暴雨日数间年代际变化的关系.结果表明:(1)1992年华南地区降水发生了由减少趋势到增多趋势的突变,降水趋势发生突变后前汛期极端降水量和日极端降水强度有所下降,而后汛期则是显著增强.(2)华南汛期年平均日最大降水量、50 a一遇日最大降水量极值和暴雨日数的空间分布特征相似,即前汛期的空间分布自南向北呈现"低-高-低"的分布趋势,后汛期呈现由沿海到内陆的"高-低"的分布趋势.(3)1992年发生突变后,前、后汛期年平均日最大降水量和年平均暴雨日数显著增加和减少的空间分布基本一致.(4)就年代际变化而言,南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压的强度变化是华南汛期降水异常的重要气候背景,即当两高压处在同时增强时期时,华南前汛期极端降水处于偏少阶段,后汛期则处于偏多阶段.     

连云港沿海地区及近海风能资源评估

通过对连云港市30多年气象整编资料及沿海高密度自动气象站、6座测风塔、4座海岛气象站等加密观测资料研究,在充分考虑当地特殊地形特点的基础上,探讨了该地区沿海及近海风能资源的时空分布规律及特点,并重点对风湍流强度的特征及强湍流对风电的影响进行了剖析;研究表明,近海地区风能资源储量相对丰富,风速变化稳定,且风垂直切变较小,具有更为广阔的开发利用前景.     

翁田台地电场观测受干扰的因素分析

海南省文昌翁田台地电场数据质量自2019年3月开始下降,地电场数据质量下降主要表现为日相关系数偏低、北南向长极距与短极距数据曲线呈反向变化、绝缘度趋向于零等情况.2019年3月—2020年10月,我们分别对观测室装置系统、室外外线路、连接口等逐一进行详细的排查工作和电极、电缆的对比实验工作,最终确定影响因素为电极故障和...     

The influence of magnetic fields on neutrino-dominated accretion disc

We consider the influence of magnetic fields on the model of neutrino-dominated accretion flows (NDAFs) for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) via the assumption that the accretion rate of the disc is totally caused by the torque of the Lorentz force, i.e. the magnetic braking of large-scale magnetic fields and magnetic viscosity of small-scale magnetic fields. We calculate the structure, composition, luminosity of neutrino emission and the Poynting flux, and the rate of mass loss driven by neutrino heating or launched centrifugally by large-scale magnetic fields, based on the physical condition of the magnetized NDAFs. It is shown that the magnetized disc is favourable to interpret the diverse prompt emissions as well as the X-ray flares observed in the early afterglow of GRBs.     

Old stellar population synthesis： new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters （GCs） in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKs 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G 1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population （SSP） models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ～1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates （of order 10^7M⊙） indicate that GI is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster＇s exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, （1.65±0.63） × 10^2L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.     

Early Mesozoic unroofing pattern of the Dabie Mountains (China): Constraints from the U-Pb detrital zircon geochronology and Si-in-white mica analysis of synorogenic sediments in the Jianghan Basin

This paper presents the results of an integrated U-Pb detrital zircon geochronology and Si-in-white mica analysis for synorogenic sediments in the Jianghan Basin to the south of the Dabie Orogen. The results provide an improved understanding of the provenance of these sediments and the unroofing pattern of the early Mesozoic Dabie Mountain. Si contents of detrital white micas range from 3.09 to 3.34 atoms pfu for the upper Triassic sandstones whereas 3.06 to 3.59 atoms pfu for the lower and middle Jurassic sandstones. The majority of detrital white micas in the lower Jurassic sandstones is phengitic and originated exclusively from the Dabie high- to ultrahigh- pressure rocks. The U-Pb dating results of the detrital zircons for seven samples suggest that these synorogenic sediments have a significant change of provenance from late Triassic to early and middle Jurassic. For the upper Triassic sandstone, the U-Pb age clusters of these zircons are characterized by ~ 420-450 Ma, ~ 750-820 Ma, ~ 1050-1200 Ma and ~ 2500 Ma with minor Luliangian (~ 1700–2000 Ma) components. In contrast, the zircon ages of the Jurassic sandstones are dominated by the Luliangian (~ 1700–2000 Ma) ages with only minor Caledonian (~ 420-450 Ma) and Greenville (~ 1050-1200 Ma) ages. In combination with other available geological data, it can be concluded that the Dabie HP-UHP rocks might initially be exposed to the surface at the beginning of early Jurassic (~ 190 Ma). The Jiangnan terrain (also named “Jiangnan old continental in Chinese) to the south of the Jianghan basin provided the predominant supply of upper Triassic sediments, whereas the Paleoproterozoic Yangtze crustal materials (overlying the present Dabie Complex at the time) were the important provenance of the Jurassic sediments in the Jianghan basin.     

GeoCube： 面向大规模分析的多源对地观测时空立方体

随着对地立体观测体系的建立,遥感大数据不断累积。传统基于文件、景/幅式的影像组织方式,时空基准不够统一,集中式存储不利于大规模并行分析。对地观测大数据分析仍缺乏一套统一的数据模型与基础设施理论。近年来,数据立方体的研究为对地观测领域大数据分析基础设施提供了前景。基于统一的分析就绪型多维数据模型和集成对地观测数据分析功能,可构建一个基于数据立方的对地观测大数据分析基础设施。因此,本文提出了一个面向大规模分析的多源对地观测时空立方体,相较于现有的数据立方体方法,强调多源数据的统一组织、基于云计算的立方体处理模式以及基于人工智能优化的立方体计算。研究有助于构建时空大数据分析的新框架,同时建立与商业智能领域的数据立方体关联,为时空大数据建立统一的时空组织模型,支持大范围、长时序的快速大规模对地观测数据分析。本文在性能上与开源数据立方做了对比,结果证明提出的多源对地观测时空立方体在处理性能上具有明显优势。     

集成Landsat OLI和机载LiDAR条带数据的亚热带森林生物量制图

以亚热带天然次生林为研究对象,借助一个条带的少量LiDAR点云数据和覆盖整个研究区的免费Landsat OLI多光谱数据,并结合地面实测数据,探索森林生物量低成本高精度制图方法。首先,提取了OLI和LiDAR特征变量,并与地上和地下生物量进行相关分析以筛选变量;然后,借助LiDAR数据覆盖区的样地和条带LiDAR数据构建"LiDAR生物量模型";再从LiDAR反演生物量的结果中进行采样,结合OLI特征变量构建"LiDAR-OLI模型";最后,与单独使用OLI多光谱数据建立的"OLI估算模型"结果进行比较,分析精度并验证新方法的效果。结果表明,"LiDAR-OLI模型"对地上和地下生物量的模型拟合效果较好且均优于"OLI模型",且其交叉验证的精度也较高并优于"OLI模型",从而证明了新方法的可靠性及有效性。本研究为主、被动遥感技术在中小尺度上协同反演森林参数提供了实验基础,也为基于全覆盖免费OLI多光谱数据及条带LiDAR数据的低成本森林生物量制图探索了技术路线。