Kriging with external drift in a Birnbaum–Saunders geostatistical model

Spatial models to describe dependent georeferenced data are applied in different fields and, particularly, are used to analyze earth and environmental data. Most of these applications are carried out under Gaussian spatial models. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is a unimodal and positively skewed model which has received considerable attention in several areas, including earth and environmental sciences. In addition, theoretical arguments have been provided to justify its usage in the data modeling from these sciences, at least in the same settings where the lognormal distribution can be employed. This paper presents kriging with external drift based on a Birnbaum–Saunders spatial model. The maximum likelihood method is considered to estimate its parameters. The results obtained in the paper are illustrated by an experimental data set related to agricultural management. Specifically, in this illustration, the spatial variability of magnesium content in the soil as a function of calcium content is analyzed.     

Intensity measures for the seismic response prediction of base-isolated buildings

Base isolation has become a widely applied technique for protecting buildings located in highly seismic areas. Due to the strongly non-linear constitutive behaviour typical of many isolation devices, the seismic response of base-isolated buildings is usually evaluated through non-linear dynamic analysis. In this type of analysis a suitable set of ground motions is needed for representing the earthquake loads and for exciting the structural model. Many methods can be found in the literature for defining the ground motions. When natural accelerograms are used, the methods mainly differ from each other based on the intensity measures used for scaling the records to the defined earthquake intensity level. Investigations have been carried out for evaluating the predictive capability of the intensity measures used in these methods: while many studies focused on ordinary buildings, only a few focused on base-isolated ones. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the most commonly used intensity measures, which are currently available in the literature, with respect to their capability to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. Selected for the investigation are two frame structures characterized by a different number of storeys and base-isolated with systems having different properties. Two sets of accelerograms, consisting of ordinary and pulse-like near-fault records, are used in the analyses and in the evaluation of the intensity measures. Modified versions of existing intensity measures are also proposed, with the intent of improving the correlations between the considered intensity measures and response quantities.     

Using GB-SAR technique to monitor slow moving landslide

A Ground-Based SAR (GB-SAR) interferometer was employed to measure the surface displacements of a landslide occurring in the Carnian Alps, north-eastern Italy, which has affected a national road and seriously damaged a road tunnel still under construction. Moreover, since the landslide is located on the left bank of the Tagliamento River Valley, it is feared that this mass movement might dam the river, creating a basin that would increase natural hazard for the valley inhabitants. The data collected from December 2002 to July 2005 by a conventional monitoring system, consisting of a GPS network and boreholes equipped with inclinometric tubes, showed that the landslide was moving at a quasi-constant rate of about 3 cm per year. Due to the slow deformation rate of the landslide, a recently developed GB-SAR technique based on the analysis of a restricted ensemble of coherent points was used. Two surveys, each lasting two days, were planned in December 2004 and July 2005, in order to map and measure the surface displacements that occurred over time. The results from the radar were compared with the ones derived from the GPS monitoring network. An agreement was achieved among the data collected, showing the capability of the GB-SAR technique to measure displacements even within a time span of several months between the surveys.     

High-pressure thermo-elastic properties of beryl (Al<Subscript>4</Subscript>Be<Subscript>6</Subscript>Si<Subscript>12</Subscript>O<Subscript>36</Subscript>) from ab initio calculations,and observations about the source of thermal expansion

Ab initio calculations of thermo-elastic properties of beryl (Al₄Be₆Si₁₂O₃₆) have been carried out at the hybrid HF/DFT level by using the B3LYP and WC1LYP Hamiltonians. Static geometries and vibrational frequencies were calculated at different values of the unit cell volume to get static pressure and mode-γ Grüneisen’s parameters. Zero point and thermal pressures were calculated by following a standard statistical-thermodynamics approach, within the limit of the quasi-harmonic approximation, and added to the static pressure at each volume, to get the total pressure (P) as a function of both temperature (T) and cell volume (V). The resulting P(V, T) curves were fitted by appropriate EoS’, to get bulk modulus (K ₀) and its derivative (K′), at different temperatures. The calculation successfully reproduced the available experimental data concerning compressibility at room temperature (the WC1LYP Hamiltonian provided K ₀ and K′ values of 180.2 Gpa and 4.0, respectively) and the low values observed for the thermal expansion coefficient. A zone-centre soft mode \( P6/mcc \to P\bar{1} \) phase transition was predicted to occur at a pressure of about 14 GPa; the reduction of the frequency of the soft vibrational mode, as the pressure is increased, and the similar behaviour of the majority of the low-frequency modes, provided an explanation of the thermal behaviour of the crystal, which is consistent with the RUM model (Rigid Unit Model; Dove et al. in Miner Mag 59:629–639, 1995), where the negative contribution to thermal expansion is ascribed to a geometric effect connected to the tilting of rigid polyhedra in framework silicates.     

High-frequency maximum observable shaking map of Italy from fault sources

We present a strategy for obtaining fault-based maximum observable shaking (MOS) maps, which represent an innovative concept for assessing deterministic seismic ground motion at a regional scale. Our approach uses the fault sources supplied for Italy by the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources, and particularly by its composite seismogenic sources (CSS), a spatially continuous simplified 3-D representation of a fault system. For each CSS, we consider the associated Typical Fault, i.e., the portion of the corresponding CSS that can generate the maximum credible earthquake. We then compute the high-frequency (1–50?Hz) ground shaking for a rupture model derived from its associated maximum credible earthquake. As the Typical Fault floats within its CSS to occupy all possible positions of the rupture, the high-frequency shaking is updated in the area surrounding the fault, and the maximum from that scenario is extracted and displayed on a map. The final high-frequency MOS map of Italy is then obtained by merging 8,859 individual scenario-simulations, from which the ground shaking parameters have been extracted. To explore the internal consistency of our calculations and validate the results of the procedure we compare our results (1) with predictions based on the Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion equations for an earthquake of M_w 7.1, (2) with the predictions of the official Italian seismic hazard map, and (3) with macroseismic intensities included in the DBMI04 Italian database. We then examine the uncertainties and analyse the variability of ground motion for different fault geometries and slip distributions.     

Uniform hazard floor acceleration spectra for linear structures

This paper presents a practical method to compute uniform hazard floor acceleration spectra for linear oscillators attached to a linear structure. The method builds on a probabilistic seismic demand model that relates the acceleration response of the oscillator with that of the generic mode of vibration of the supporting structure. Interaction between oscillator and structure is ignored. Independency of the model on the specific characteristics of seismic hazard at the site is shown. By using the method floor spectra are determined through a closed‐form expression, given the mean annual frequency of interest, the damping ratio of the oscillators, the modal properties of the structure, and three uniform hazard spectra representing seismic hazard at the site. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural arsenic contamination in waters from the Pesariis village,NE Italy

High arsenic (As) concentrations, >900 μg/L, were measured in Ca–Mg–SO₄ waters from springs and drainages in the village of Pesariis in the Carnic Alps (NE Italy). Oxidation of the outcropping arsenian marcasite ore deposits of the area is proposed as the mechanism for As release into oxygenated waters during runoff. Nevertheless, the limited extension of the ore deposit and the relatively low As content of the mineralization suggest that sulfide weathering might not be the only process responsible for the highest As concentration in groundwaters. An additional mechanism involves As adsorption onto ferric iron particulate during oxidation, the drawdown in reducing environment at depth during water infiltration, and the release of ferrous iron and sorbed arsenic to the water columns by reductive dissolution of hydrous ferric oxides (HFO). This yields the observed Fe–As correlation. Newly formed HFO precipitates when groundwaters discharge to aerated conditions, leading to the removal of As, which strongly partitions into the iron-rich sediments, adsorbed onto the surface of amorphous Fe₂O₃·xH₂O. The calculated and measured As concentration in sediments exceeds 10% by weight. Furthermore, geochemical and isotopic data indicate that the As-rich reservoir partly mixes with shallower aquifers, commonly tapped for drinking supply, representing a natural hazard for inhabitants.     

Tectono-stratigraphic modelling of the North Sicily continental margin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

A two-dimensional numerical modelling that simulate the kinematic and thermal response of the lithosphere to thinning was used for the quantitative reconstruction of the late Neogene to Recent times tectonic and stratigraphic evolution of the North Sicily continental margin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea). The numerical study of the evolution of the North Sicily margin builds on the crustal image and kinematic interpretation of the margin obtained by Pepe et al. [Tectonics 19 (2000) 241] on the basis of seismic data and gravity modelling. Tectonic modeling indicate that different segments of the margin were undergoing different vertical movements, which are mainly expression of the rifting and thinning of the lithosphere occurred during tectonic evolution of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. A prediction of the pre-rift basement topography and the Moho along the margin converges to a value of 6.5 km for the depth of necking and a temperature-dependent EET (500° isotherm). The model fails to reproduce the morphology of the Solunto High confirming its non-extensional origin. A polyphase evolution is required to reproduce the observed syn- and post-rift stratigraphy. During the first rifting stage (between 9 and 5 Ma), crustal thinning factors reach maximum values of 1.27 in the Cefalù basin. A similar value is predicted for the subcrustal thinning around 60 km NNE of the profile margin. Crustal thinning factors increase during the second rifting stage (from 4 to 2 Ma) and reach values of 2 and up to 3.5 in the Cefalù basin and in the continent–oceanic transition zone, respectively. Similarly, subcrustal lithospheric thinning factors reach values up to 2.5 in the distal sector of the margin. An uplift of more than 100 m is predicted for the North Sicily shelf and surrounding onshore areas during the post-rift stage. The evolution of thermal structure with time is very sensitive to the partial thinning factors describing the evolution of the thinning itself during time. The lithosphere preserved part of its strength during extension. The effective elastic thickness (EET) along the margin through time is 24 km at the onset of rifting and reaches values less to 8 km during the second rifting stage in the northeastern end of the margin.     

Risk-based characterisation of an urban building site

The evaluation of the underground soil stratigraphy is a key aspect in geotechnical site characterisation. However, these means of site exploration are only pinholing subsoil conditions and expert knowledge is needed to understand subsoil conditions in order to build a reliable geological-geotechnical model. This contribution employs a geostatistical simulation methodology for the simulation of random fields representing geological uncertainty. This combines borehole data and expert knowledge via a mathematical framework. Moreover a risk-based site characterisation scheme is developed for urban site characterisation. This novel characterisation scheme offers additional insight into the effects of large-scale, geological spatial variability by using fragility curves to quantify these effects.