Functioning and precipitation-displacement modelling of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subject to creep deformation

We propose an approach to study the hydro-mechanical behaviour and evolution of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subjected to creep deformation by combining signal processing and modelling. The method is applied to the Séchilienne landslide in the French Alps, where precipitation and displacement have been monitored for 20 years. Wavelet analysis is first applied on precipitation and recharge as inputs and then on displacement time-series decomposed into trend and detrended signals as outputs. Results show that the detrended displacement is better linked to the recharge signal than to the total precipitation signal. The infra-annual detrended displacement is generated by high precipitation events, whereas annual and multi-annual variations are rather linked to recharge variations and thus to groundwater processes. This leads to conceptualise the system into a two-layer aquifer constituted of a perched aquifer (reactive aquifer responsible of high-frequency displacements) and a deep aquifer (inertial aquifer responsible of low-frequency displacements). In a second step, a new lumped model (GLIDE) coupling groundwater and a creep deformation model is applied to simulate displacement on three extensometer stations. The application of the GLIDE model gives good performance, validating most of the preliminary functioning hypotheses. Our results show that groundwater fluctuations can explain the displacement periodic variations as well as the long-term creep exponential trend. In the case of deep-seated landslides, this displacement trend is interpreted as the consequence of the weakening of the rock mechanical properties due to repeated actions of the groundwater pressure.     

On Blind Tests and Spatial Prediction Models

This contribution discusses the usage of blind tests, BT, to cross-validate and interpret the results of predictions by statistical models applied to spatial databases. Models such as Bayesian probability, empirical likelihood ratio, fuzzy sets, or neural networks were and are being applied to identify areas likely to contain events such as undiscovered mineral resources, zones of high natural hazard, or sites with high potential environmental impact. By processing the information in a spatial database, the models establish the relationships between the distribution of known events and their contextual settings, described by both thematic and continuous data layers. The relationships are to locate situations where similar events are likely to occur. Maps of predicted relative resource potential or of relative hazard/impact levels are generated. They consist of relative values that need careful quantitative scrutiny to be interpreted for taking decisions on further action in exploration or on hazard/impact mitigation and avoidance. The only meaning of such relative values is their rank. Obviously, to assess the reliability of the predicted ranks, tests are indispensable. This is also a consequence of the impracticality of waiting for the future to reveal the goodness of our prediction. During the past decade only a few attempts have been made by some researchers to cross-validate the results of spatial predictions. Furthermore, assumptions and applications of cross-validations differ considerably in a number of recent case studies. A perspective for all such experiments is provided using two specific examples, one in mineral exploration and the other in landslide hazard, to answer the fundamental question: how good is my prediction?     

A two‐step direct method for estimating the seismic response of nonlinear structures equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers

The insertion of fluid viscous dampers in building structures is an innovative technology that can improve significantly the seismic response. These devices could be very useful also in the retrofit of existing buildings. The effect of this typology of damping system is usually identified with an equivalent supplemental damping ratio, which depends on the maximum displacement of the structure, so that iterative procedures are required. In this paper, a simplified direct assessment method for nonlinear structures equipped with nonlinear fluid viscous dampers is proposed. The method proposed in this study is composed by two steps. The first one yields the direct estimate of the supplemental damping ratio provided by nonlinear viscous dampers in presence of a linear elastic structural response. The second step extends the procedure to structures with nonlinear behavior. Both graphical and analytical approaches have been developed. The proposed method has then been verified through several applications and comparisons with nonlinear dynamic analyses. Moreover, an investigation has been performed with regard to the influence of the relations that define the damping reduction factor and the hysteretic damping. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cosmic microwave background anisotropies resulting from feedback-regulated inhomogeneous reionization

We calculate the secondary anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) produced by inhomogeneous reionization from simulations in which the effects of radiative and stellar feedback effects on galaxy formation have been included. This allows us to determine self-consistently the beginning ( z _i≈30), the duration ( δz ≈20) and the (non-linear) evolution of the reionization process for a critical density cold dark matter (CDM) model. In addition, from the simulated spatial distribution of ionized regions, we are able to calculate the evolution of the two-point ionization correlation function, C _χ , and obtain the power spectrum of the anisotropies, C _ℓ, in the range 5000<ℓ<10⁶. The power spectrum has a broad maximum around ℓ≈30 000, where it reaches the value 2×10⁻¹². We also show that the ionization correlation function C _χ is not Gaussian, but at separation angles θ ≲10⁻⁴ rad it can be approximated by a modified Lorentzian shape; at larger separations an anticorrelation signal is predicted for both C _χ and C ( θ ). Detection of signals as above will be possible with future millimetre-wavelength interferometers like the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) , which appears as an optimum instrument to search for signatures of inhomogeneous reionization.     

Numerical modelling of the hydro‐chemo‐mechanical behaviour of geomaterials in the context of CO2 injection

Safety assessment of geosequestration of CO₂ into deep saline aquifers requires a precise understanding of the study of hydro‐chemo‐mechanical couplings occurring in the rocks and the cement well. To this aim, a coupled chemo‐poromechanical model has been developed and implemented into a research code well‐suited to the resolution of fully coupled problems. This code is based on the finite volume methods. In a 1D axisymmetrical configuration, this study aims to simulate the chemo‐poromechanical behaviour of a system composed by the cement well and the caprock during CO₂ injection. Major chemical reactions of carbonation occurring into cement paste and rocks are considered in order to evaluate the consequences of the presence of CO₂ on the amount of dissolved matrix and precipitated calcium carbonates. The dissolution of the solid matrix is taken into account through the use of a chemical porosity. Matrix leaching and carbonation lead, as expected, to important variations of porosity, permeability and to alterations of transport properties and mechanical stiffness. These results justify the importance of considering a coupled analysis accounting for the main chemical reactions. It is worth noting that the modelling framework proposed in the present study could be extended to model the chemo‐poromechanical behaviour of the reservoir rock and the caprock when subjected to the presence of an acidic pore fluid (CO₂‐rich brine). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in the millimetric region

We analyse the spectral shape and possible spurious distortions of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, arising from the interaction of the cosmic background radiation with hot gases of rich clusters, in the millimetric region. We show that one can measure this effect with high accuracy with present-day infrared detectors, obtaining a larger amount of information than by using radio systems. In particular, one can accurately measure the temperature of the cosmic background radiation without the usual absolute calibration of the detector.     

Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping

This contribution discusses the problemof providing measures of significance ofprediction results when the predictionswere generated from spatial databases forlandslide hazard mapping. The spatialdatabases usually contain map informationon lithologic units, land-cover units,topographic elevation and derived attributes(slope, aspect, etc.) and the distributionin space and in time of clearly identifiedmass movements. In prediction modelling wetransform the multi-layered databaseinto an aggregation of functional values toobtain an index of propensity of the landto failure. Assuming then that the informationin the database is sufficiently representativeof the typical conditions in which the massmovements originated in space and in time,the problem then, is to confirm the validity ofthe results of some models over otherones, or of particular experiments that seem touse more significant data. A core pointof measuring the significance of a prediction isthat it allows interpreting the results.Without a validation no interpretation is possible,no support of the method or of theinput information can be provided. In particularwith validation, the added value canbe assessed of a prediction either in a fixedtime interval, or in an open-ended time orwithin the confined space of a study area.Validation must be of guidance in datacollection and field practice for landslidehazard mapping.