Seismicity pattern of the Betic Cordillera(southern Spain) derived from the fractal properties of earthquakes and faults

Several studies on earthquake occurrence and associated faulting have demonstrated that both phenomena have a scale-invariant behavior which can be analyzed by means of a set of non-integer dimensions(Dq) describing their fractal properties and the calculation of multi-fractal spectra.It is the case that the behavior of these spectra is asymptotic at the ends of the variation interval of q,which is a real number that enters into the definition of the partition function of the dataset.The difference between the extreme values,called multi-fractal spectrum slope,is used to investigate the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of earthquakes and fault systems.In this paper we focus on the Betic Cordillera,southeastern Spain,which is commonly considered the contact between the Eurasian and African plates and has an important seismic activity in the context of the Iberian Peninsula.Some of the most conspicuous Iberian earthquakes,such as the 1829 mb6.3 Torrevieja and the 1884 mb6.1 Alhama de Granada earthquakes occurred in this mountain range and both reached intensity X.The present work implies a new analysis based on the slope of multi-fractal spectra and referred to the historical seismicity of the region,specifically b-value(frequency distribution of earthquakes respect to magnitude),epicentral location,seismic energy and faulting.On this basis we propose a seismotectonic zonation that is contrasted with the stress state and the geodynamical evolution of the Betic Cordillera.     

The effect of nested grid sampling on the parameter estimation of a spatial Gompertz diffusion

This paper evaluates the effects of using data observed on regular nested grids on the parameter estimates of a two-parameter Gompertz diffusion model. This new spatial diffusion process represents a technically more complex stage of Gompertz modeling. Firstly, the diffusion model is introduced through an appropriate transformation of a two-parameter Gaussian diffusion process. Probabilistic characteristics of this model, such as the transition densities and the trend functions, are obtained. Secondly, statistical estimation is considered using data obtained on a regular or irregular grid; the explicit expression of the likelihood equations and the parameter estimators are given for regular grids. Finally, a simulation experiment illustrates the results of this paper.     

Source parameters for the 2013–2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county,Hungary

Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M _L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M _L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5–1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8–2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M _w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.     

The Disruption Index (DI) as a tool to measure disaster mitigation strategies

Apart from the loss of lives, injuries and homeless resulting from an earthquake, not only the economy and physical landscape are altered, but also the lives of citizens and their places of work are dramatically altered. If critical services and functions are disrupted for more than a reasonable time period, consequences can be severe. All communities are at risk and face potential disaster, if unprepared. The Disruption Index (DI) is a tool that allows the representation of a complex and multidimensional situation in a concise and easier way, providing institutions and communities with a way to identify the global earthquake impact in a geographical area, the elements at risk, and the means to reduce it. In the present paper, after a short review of the concept of DI, its geographic (spatial) distribution is developed and an application to some cities in Algarve (Portugal) is made. Then, the use of DI in the context of measuring the risk reduction for alternative disaster mitigation strategies is introduced and illustrations are presented.     

QuakeIST<Superscript>®</Superscript> earthquake scenario simulator using interdependencies

Earthquakes are a permanent threat to urban environments worldwide. The communication of the related risk demands accurate damage model simulations and an interactive visualization of results. The aim of this paper is to provide a realistic problem-solving environment for earthquake discussions among decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public. QuakeIST^® is an integrated earthquake simulator developed by Instituto Superior Técnico (Lisbon University), oriented towards the performance of risk calculations concerning damage propagations that use the Disruption Index concept. This software imports data stored in a GIS environment, handles different ground motion scenarios, and deals with a complex situation of different soils and vulnerabilities of various layers of civil structures (buildings, lifelines, and other urban structures). It models interdependencies between several infrastructures and between infrastructures and the urban tissue. The computer programme is very versatile, written in separate modules, allowing an experimented user to incorporate new formulations. Results can be treated with any statistical application and most common GIS commercial environments can produced their geographic visualization. Current progress and new upcoming are briefly described at the end of the paper.     

Adjoint free four-dimensional variational data assimilation for a storm surge model of the German North Sea

In this paper, a data assimilation scheme based on the adjoint free Four-Dimensional Variational(4DVar) method is applied to an existing storm surge model of the German North Sea. To avoid the need of an adjoint model, an ensemble-like method to explicitly represent the linear tangent equation is adopted. Results of twin experiments have shown that the method is able to recover the contaminated low dimension model parameters to their true values. The data assimilation scheme was applied to a severe storm surge event which occurred in the North Sea in December 5, 2013. By adjusting wind drag coefficient, the predictive ability of the model increased significantly. Preliminary experiments have shown that an increase in the predictive ability is attained by narrowing the data assimilation time window.