Relativistic charged particle precipitation into Jupiter's sub-auroral atmosphere

Longitudinal variations of energetic charged particle precipitation into the jovian sub-auroral atmosphere are modeled based on weak diffusion scattering and variations in the local loss-cone size associated with asymmetries in the VIP-4 magnetic field model. Our scattering model solutions suggest that low latitude observations of enhanced H₃⁺ and X-ray emissions are at least partially due to precipitating energetic particles. The correlation between model results and observations is best in the northern hemisphere at low L (1.5), where the surface magnetic field variation is largest and observations have the highest resolution. Weaker correlations in the southern hemisphere and at higher latitudes, particularly for H₃⁺ emissions, are likely due to the presence of other energy sources, lack of resolution in the observations and limitations in the sub-auroral surface magnetic field model.     

Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences

Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region.     

Cost–benefit analysis of climate change dynamics: uncertainties and the value of information

We analyze climate change in a cost–benefit framework, using the emission and concentration profiles of Wigley et al. (Nature 379(6562):240–243, 1996). They present five scenarios that cover the period 1990–2300 and are designed to reach stabilized concentration levels of 350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppmv, respectively. We assume that the damage cost in each year t is proportional to the corresponding gross world product and the square of the atmospheric temperature increase (ΔT(t)). The latter is estimated with a simple two-box model (representing the atmosphere and deep ocean). Coupling the damage cost with the abatement cost, we interpolate between the five scenarios to find the one that is optimal in the sense of minimizing the sum of discounted annual (abatement plus damage) costs over a time horizon of N years. Our method is simpler than ‘traditional’ models with the same purpose, and thus allows for a more transparent sensitivity study with respect to the uncertainties of all parameters involved. We report our central result in terms of the stabilized emission level E _o and concentration level p _o (i.e. their values at t = 300 years) of the optimal scenario. For the central parameter values (that is, N = 150 years, a discount rate r _dis = 2%/year and a growth rate r _gro = 1%/year of gross world product) we find E _o  = 8.0 GtCO₂/year and p _o = 496 ppmv. Varying the parameters over a wide range, we find that the optimal emission level remains within a remarkably narrow range, from about 6.0 to 12 GtCO₂/year for all plausible parameter values. To assess the significance of the uncertainties we focus on the social cost penalty, defined as the extra cost incurred by society relative to the optimum if one makes the wrong choice of the emission level as a result of erroneous damage and abatement cost estimates. In relative terms the cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. For example, if the true damage costs are three times larger or smaller than the estimate, the total social cost of global climate change increases by less than 20% above its minimum at the true optimal emission level. Because of the enormous magnitude of the total costs involved with climate change (mitigation), however, even a small relative error implies large additional expenses in absolute terms. To evaluate the benefit of reducing cost uncertainties, we plot the cost penalty as function of the uncertainty in relative damage and abatement costs, expressed as geometric standard deviation and standard deviation respectively. If continued externality analysis reduces the geometric standard deviation of relative damage cost estimates from 5 to 4, the benefit is 0.05% of the present value G _tot of total gross word product over 150 years (about $3.9 × 10¹⁵), and if further research reduces the standard deviation of relative abatement costs from 1 to 0.5, the benefit is 0.03% of G _tot .     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Timing and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions

This paper analyses the optimal timing and macro-economic costs of carbon emission reductions that mitigate the global average atmospheric temperature increase. We use a macro-economic model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil-fuelled and non-fossil-fuelled. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and niche markets exist implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-fossil-fuelled energy source. Under these conditions, with a temperature increase constraint of 2 ° C, early abatement is found to be optimal, and, comparedto the results of many existing top-down models, the costs of this strategy prove to be low. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of our results regarding the uncertainties that dominate various economic and technological modeling parameters. Uncertainties in the learning rate and the elasticity of substitution between the two different energy sources most significantly affect the robustness of our findings.     

Thallium: a sensitive indicator of rock/seawater interaction and of sulfur saturation of silicate melts

Radiochemical neutron activation analysis for Tl in a number of young pillow basalts, hydrothermally altered basalts and associated hydrothermal and hydrogenous Mn crusts from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and adjacent regions of the North Atlantic indicate that Tl is a sensitive indicator of both S saturation of silicate melts and of rock/seawater interactions. Rb-Cs-K-Tl trend lines for fresh MAR basalts (whose melts remained saturated with S during silicate fractionation) are distinctly different to Hawaiian basalts whose melts lost S during or prior to eruption, but were saturated with S at an earlier stage. Varying degrees of Tl enrichment are found in the hydrogenous Mn nodules (91,000 ppb), hydrothermal Mn crusts (2300–32,000 ppb), palagonitized glass (300–2700 ppb), hydrothermally altered basalts (1140–4560 ppb), and even slightly altered pillow interiors (11–45 ppb) relative to the fresh glasses (6–12 ppb). This enrichment has taken place due to incorporation of Tl into secondary silicate phases along with the alkalis and also due to co-precipitation of Tl with ferromanganese oxides and hydroxides. Thallium enrichment in the hydrothermal products is interpreted as being due to cooling and oxidation of hydrothermal fluids as these approached the sea floor. Haloes of Tl-enriched country rock may occur around sulfide deposits in which seawater has acted as the ore fluid.