NEAR-FAULT DISPLACEMENT AND DEFORMATION OBTAINED FROM ONE-KILOMETER-LONG FAULT-CROSSING BASELINE MEASUREMENTS-A PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT AT 2 SITES ON THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

The current and conventional fault-crossing short baseline measurement has a relatively high precision, but its measurement arrays usually fail to or cannot completely span major active fault zones due to the short length of the baselines, which are only tens to 100 meters. GNSS measurement has relatively low resolution on near-fault deformation and hence is not suitable for monitoring those faults with low motion and deformation rates, due to sparse stations and relatively low accuracy of the GNSS observation. We recently built up two experimental sites on the eastern boundary of the active Sichuan-Yunnan block, one crossing the Daqing section of the Zemuhe Fault and the other crossing the Longshu section of the Zhaotong Fault, aiming to test the measurement of near-fault motion and deformation by using fault-crossing arrays of one-kilometer-long baselines. In this paper, from a three-year-long data set we firstly introduce the selection of the sites and the methods of the measurement. We then calculate and analyze the near-field displacement and strain of the two sites by using three hypothetical models, the rigid body, elastic and composed models, proposed by previous researchers. In the rigid body model, we assume that an observed fault is located between two rigid blocks and the observed variances in baseline lengths result from the relative motion of the blocks. In the elastic model, we assume that a fault deforms uniformly within the fault zone over which a baseline array spans, and in the array baselines in different directions may play roles as strainmeters whose observations allow us to calculate three components of near-fault horizontal strain. In the composed model, we assume that both displacement and strain are accumulated within the fault zone that a baseline array spans, and both contribute to the observed variances in baseline lengths. Our results show that, from the rigid body model, variations in horizontal fault-parallel displacement component of the Zemuhe Fault at the Daqing site fluctuate within 3mm without obvious tendencies. The displacement variation in the fault-normal component keeps dropping in 2015 and 2016 with a cumulative decrease of 6mm, reflecting transverse horizontal compression, and it turns to rise slightly(suggesting extension)in 2017. From the elastic model, the variation in horizontal fault-normal strain component of the fault at Daqing shows mainly compression, with an annual variation close to 10^-5, and variations in the other two strain components are at the order of 10^-6. For the Longshu Fault, the rigid-body displacement of the fault varies totally within a few millimeters, but shows a dextral strike-slip tendency that is consistent with the fault motion known from geological investigation, and the observed dextral-slip rate is about 0.7mm/a on average. The fault-parallel strain component of the Longshu Fault is compressional within 2×10^-6, and the fault-normal strain component is mainly extensional. Restricted by the assumption of rigid-body model, we have to ignore homolateral deformation on either side of an observed fault and attribute such deformation to the fault displacement, resulting in an upper limit estimate of the fault displacement. The elastic model emphasizes more the deformation on an observed fault zone and may give us information about localizations of near-fault strain. The results of the two sites from the composed model suggest that it needs caution when using this model due to that big uncertainty would be introduced in solving relevant equations. Level surveying has also been carried out at the meantime at the two sites. The leveling series of the Daqing site fluctuates within 4mm and shows no tendency, meaning little vertical component of fault motion has been observed at this site; while, from the rigid-body model, the fault-normal motion shows transverse-horizontal compression of up to 6mm, indicating that the motion of the Zemuhe Fault at Daqing is dominantly horizontal. The leveling series of the Longshu site shows a variation with amplitude comparable with that observed from the baseline series here, suggesting a minor component of thrust faulting; while the baseline series of the same site do not present tendencies of fault-normal displacement. Since the steep-dip faults at the two sites are dominantly strike-slip in geological time scale, we ignore probable vertical movement temporarily. In addition, lengths of homolateral baselines on either side of the faults change somewhat over time, and this makes us consider the existence of minor faults on either side of the main faults. These probable minor faults may not reach to the surface and have not been identified through geological mapping; they might result in the observed variances in lengths of homolateral baselines, fortunately such variations are small relative to those in fault-crossing baselines. In summary, the fault-crossing measurement using arrays with one-kilometer-long baselines provides us information about near-fault movement and strain, and has a slightly higher resolution relative to current GNSS observation at similar time and space scales, and therefore this geodetic technology will be used until GNSS networks with dense near-fault stations are available in the future.     

一次强沙尘暴天气的大尺度环流分析

１９９８年４月１４～１９日蒙古和我国北方连续发生２次强沙尘暴天气,沙尘暴减弱后的浮尘随高空西风急流东移,跨越黄海到达韩国南部。通过分析认为,这是一次发生于纬向环流中的沙尘暴天气,主要影响系统是蒙古西部热低压和地面冷锋。     

河西内陆河春季流量变化特征的分析和预测

利用昌马、莺落峡、九条岭３个水文站四十余年的月平均流量资料,分析河西地区３条主要内陆河春季流量的长期变化特征,并用均生函数模型对流量进行了预报,为河西地区水资源的研究和利用提供参考依据     

我国西部地区一些强震及中强震前后波速异常的初步研究（一）——波速比异常

本文对近年来我国西部地区发生的某些强震及中强震（M_S>5.0）的波速比异常作了一些初步探讨.文中给出并讨论了这些地震的波速比异常的一些共同特征,即随时间变化的曲线形态、异常特征量（异常持续时间与异常幅度）和异常的统计分布特征.此外还讨论了波速比异常的特性与地震序列类型、震源深度及震源机制的关系,探索了波速比异常与波速异常间的关系.最后还指出了地震活动性与波速比异常的某种对应关系,并作了简要的讨论.     

我国西部地区一些强震及中强震前后波速异常的初步研究（二）——波速异常区及其特性

本文介绍了根据近地震直达波到时资料确定震前波速异常区（简称孕震区）的方法,并给出了我国西部地区某些较大地震前波速异常区（孕震区）的初步测定结果。探索并讨论了孕震区的一些基本特性,即孕震区的形状、大小,孕震区的定向,主震在孕震区内所处的部位,孕震区内部波速异常状态的分布与发展等。最后还导出了孕震区线度与震源区尺度间的关系式,并作了简单的讨论。     

AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART I:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES

Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface ProcessModel(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)Thecombination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct thegoverning equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level andphysical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lowerresolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surfacehydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soilthermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of“off-line”testshave been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has goodperformance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for manykinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert)in different climate zone.The resultssimulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group ofobservation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shownthat the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetationphysical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is muchimportant for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of spatial redox zones using discriminant analysis and geochemical modelling in arsenic‐affected alluvial aquifers

This study characterized the redox conditions in arsenic‐affected groundwater aquifers of the Lanyang plain, Taiwan. Discriminant analysis was adopted to delineate three redox zones (oxidative, transitional and reductive zones) in different aquifers and yielded 92·3% correctness on groundwater quality data. Arsenic is mainly distributed in the reductive zone, and arsenic distribution in the shallow aquifer is mainly affected by surface activities. According to PHREEQC modelling results, possible mechanisms for arsenic release to groundwater in Lanyang plain are explored. Arsenic released to groundwater in the oxidative zone (zone 1) is primarily caused by the oxidations of arsenic‐bearing pyrite minerals, and arsenate is the predominant species. While the reductive dissolution of Fe‐oxides are responsible for the high arsenic concentration found in the transitional and reductive zones (zones 2 and 3), arsenite is the predominant species. The reduction potential of groundwater rises as the depths and zones increase. Some sulphates may be reduced to form sulphide ions, which then react with arsenic to form arseno‐sulphide deposits (such as realgar, orpiment) and then slightly lower groundwater arsenic concentrations. A conceptual diagram which summarized the possible release processes of arsenic in different redox zones along groundwater flow in Lanyang plain is postulated. Arsenic‐bearing pyrite and arsenopyrite (FeAsS) are oxidized as they are exposed to the infiltrated oxygenated rainwater, releasing soluble arsenate Fe(II) and SO₄^2? into zone 1. The dissolution of arsenic‐rich Fe‐oxides due to the onset of reducing conditions in zones 2 and 3 is responsible for the mobility of arsenic and likely to be the primary mechanism of arsenic release to groundwater in the Lanyang plain Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations of b‐values at the western edge of the Ryukyu Subduction Zone,north‐east Taiwan

Using earthquakes relocated in north‐east Taiwan, we estimated b‐value distribution along a cross‐section located near the Ryukyu slab edge, and four b‐value anomalous areas are evidenced: (1) a high b‐value body lying on top of a low Vp, low Vs and high Vp/Vs sausage‐like body was considered as a region of enhanced partial melt or water supply above which seismicity occurs; (2) beneath the Ilan Plain, an anomalous area characterized by b‐values slightly higher than 1.1 might give evidence to the magma conduits to the Kueishantao Island; (3) above the Ryukyu Wadati‐Benioff zone, at depths ranging from 90 to 110 km, a high b‐value anomaly might correspond to the depth where dehydration occurs in the subducting oceanic plate; and (4) a low b‐value area located within the Ryukyu slab, at depths ranging from 70 to 90 km, might be linked to the compressive mechanisms shown by focal mechanisms and the bending of the subducting plate.     

Benthic nutrient recycling in shallow coastal waters of the Bohai Sea

Sediment-water fluxes of N and P species in the Bohai Sea were investigated in September-October 1998 and April-May 1999. The benthic fluxes of nutrient species were determined by incubating sediment core samples with bottom seawater bubbled with air or nitrogen. NO^-2,NH4, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP), and PO4^3- showed a net exchange flux from seawater to sediment, while NO^-3, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and SiO3^2- were released from sediment to seawater in the Bohai Sea. Sediment-water nutrient exchange increases DIN and reduces the phosphorus load in the Bohai Sea. The release of silicate from sediment to overlying seawater reduces potential silicate limitation of primary production resulted from decrease of riverine discharge.The exchange flux of nutrients showed no obvious seasonal variation. The present study showed that the concentrations and composition of nutrients in the water column were affected by suspended sediment, and that not all the exchangeable phosphate in sediment could be released via sediment resuspension.