Multi-Model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO_2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

This is the second part of the authors’ analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6–0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5°C) than over eastern China (<2°C). The multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest–southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (～1°C– 2°C) is less than MME warming (～2°C–4°C), indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO 2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting" the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.     

青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价

基于区域构造背景、应力场状态及动力学环境等,将青藏高原北部地区划分为4个相对独立的统计单元,即祁连山地震带、甘东南地区、柴达木一共和地块及库玛地震带.通过地震频度和b值拟合确定了各个地区不同下限震级的地震目录完整性起始时间;确定了各构造单元中强以上地震活跃与平静交替活动的特征;定量计算了在平均状态中强以上地震活动特征参数及平静阶段与活跃阶段地震活动特征参数;分别获得了各个区域在平均、活跃与平静状态下的小震活动状态参数.     

三峡库首区非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减

非构造型水库地震具有震级小、震源浅、烈度高的特点,研究其烈度衰减对库区地震地质灾害的预测与防治具有重要的意义。根据三峡库首区近年地震实地科考原始烈度资料,选择椭圆衰减模型并对其进行二元回归分析,得到非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减关系。并与原有构造型水库地震烈度衰减关系进行比较。结果可供库区地震危险性分析与地震小区划使用。     

利用小波变换方法识别山西形变异常信息

文章主要根据小波变换方法在不同尺度时细节的变化特征,通过一些震例对山西数字形变资料进行分析研究,发现,经过小波变换处理后的数据在细节部分达到第5层、第6层时,震前资料会显示出比较同步的长周期信号,这为识别和提取数字洞体形变资料中的趋势异常和短期异常提供了新的探索思路和方法。     

Lower crustal melting via magma underplating: Elemental and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic constraints from late Mesozoic intermediate–felsic volcanic rocks in the northeastern North China Block

Ar–Ar dating, major and trace element analyses, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope results of two groups of Lower Cretaceous (erupted at 126 and 119 Ma, respectively) intermediate–felsic lava from the northeastern North China Block (NCB) suggest their derivation from melting of mixtures between the heterogeneous lower crust and underplated basalts. Both groups exhibit high‐K calc‐alkaline to shoshonitic affinities, characterized by light rare earth element (LREE) and large ion lithophile element (LILE) enrichment and variable high field strength element (HFSE, e.g. Nb, Ta and Ti) depletion, and moderately radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd and Pb isotopic compositions. Compared with Group 2, Group 1 rocks have relatively higher K₂O and Al₂O₃/(CaO + K₂O + Na₂O) in molar ratio, higher HFSE concentrations and lower Nb/Ta ratios, and higher Sr–Nd–Pb isotope ratios. Group 1 rocks were derived from a mixture of an enriched mantle‐derived magma and a lower crust that has developed radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, whereas the Group 2 magmas were melts of another mixture between the same mantle‐derived component and another type of lower crust having even lower Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic ratios. Shift in source region from Group 1 to Group 2 coincided with a change in melting conditions: hydrous melting of both the underplated basalt and the lower crust produced the earlier high‐Nb and low‐Nb/Ta melts with little or no residual Ti‐rich phases; while the younger low‐Nb and high‐Nb/Ta magmas were melted under a water‐deficient system, in which Ti‐rich phases were retained in the source. Generation of the two groups of intermediate–felsic volcanic rocks was genetically linked with the contemporaneous magma underplating event as a result of lithospheric thinning in the eastern NCB.     

高分辨瞬时振幅和瞬时相位在薄互煤层识别中的应用

东北地区煤田中的煤层一般是一个典型的低速薄层,可采煤厚约1～8 m,这使得常规地震方法勘探煤层受到很大的限制.但由于煤层与围岩组成的是一个有规律的薄互层组合,所以通过研究薄互层的地震波波形、振幅、能量分配关系等特征来进行识别成为地震勘探煤层的一种可能.而高分辨三瞬技术能够提供精细化的波形、振幅等信息,因此本文将高分辨三...     

几种储层裂缝评价方法的 适用条件分析

裂缝是地壳上最小的构造,成因复杂,控制和影响因素多样,形成和发育具有随机性,分布具有高度非均质性,因此储层裂缝的精细描述和预测仍是目前石油地质界的一个世界性难题,至今还没有一套很好的技术方法来根本性地解决储层裂缝分布问题.笔者通过对国内外学者研究成果的总结,简单介绍了当今裂缝识别、预测、参数定量表征等方面的研究进展,着...     

西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估

根据最新地质考察和历史地震考证结果,西秦岭北缘断裂带从东到西可划分为宝鸡、天水、武山、漳县、黄香沟和锅麻滩共6个次级断裂段。上述断裂既具有单段破裂,又具有多段组合破裂的特征。利用时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法,对这6个单段分别进行地震危险性概率评估,其中黄香沟段和漳县段发生单段破裂的可能性最大,天水段发生单段破裂的概率次之。若发生组合破裂,黄香沟段和漳县段组合破裂可能性大。同时,根据沿断裂带的b值扫描图像分析结果显示,黄香沟段和天水附近应力积累较高,这两个地区应是未来发生强震的主要段落,值得关注。     

油气勘探新领域:火山岩油气藏——松辽盆地大型火山岩气田发现的启示

通过观念转变和理论与技术创新,大庆油田在松辽盆地徐家围子断陷深层火山岩天然气勘探获得重大突破,使火山岩由原来的油气勘探"禁区"变为"靶区".从而带动了全国的火山岩油气勘探,促使国内油气储量的不断增长.研究表明,各类火山岩均有可能成为良好的储层.与沉积岩相比,火山岩在盆地深层具有体积大、储层物性受埋深影响小、孔渗条件好等...     

班公湖-怒江缝合带西段改则硅质岩地球化学征及沉积环境

班公湖-怒江缝合带是西藏第二条规模巨大的基性-超基性岩带.文章通过对该带西段改则地区硅质岩的系统地球化学研究,探讨了硅质岩形成的成因和构造背景.研究表明:①硅质岩的w(SiO2)变化范围在85.23％～93.73％之间,Si/Al比值为34.08～56.92,表明它们含有较高比例的陆源泥质沉积物;②Hf、Pb、Nb、T...