随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...     

Volcanically Driven Terrestrial Environmental Perturbations during the Carnian Pluvial Episode in the Eastern Tethys

The Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE) fingerprints global environmental perturbations and biological extinction on land and oceans and is potentially linked to the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province (LIP). However, the correlation between terrestrial environmental changes and Wrangellia volcanism in the Ordos Basin during the CPE remains poorly understood. Records of negative carbon isotopic excursions (NCIEs), mercury (Hg), Hg/TOC, and Hg enrichment factor (HgEF) from oil shales in a large-scale terrestrial Ordos Basin in the Eastern Tethys were correlated with marine and other terrestrial successions. The three significant NCIEs in the study section were consistently correlated with those in the CPE successions of Europe, the UK, and South and North China. The U-Pb geochronology indicates a Ladinian–Carnian age for the Chang 7 Member. A comprehensive overview of the geochronology, NCIE correlation, and previous bio- and chronostratigraphic frameworks shows that the Ladinian–Carnian boundary is located in the lower part of Chang 7 in the Yishicun section. HgEF may be a more reliable proxy for tracing volcanic eruptions than the Hg/TOC ratio because the accumulation rates of TOC content largely vary in terrestrial and marine successions. The records of Hg, Hg/TOC, HgEF, and NCIEs in the Ordos Basin aligned with Carnian successions worldwide and were marked by similar anomalies, indicating a global response to the Wrangellia LIP during the CPE. Anoxia, a warm-humid climate, enhancement of detrital input, and NCIEs are synchronous with the CPE interval in the Ordos Basin, which suggests that the CPE combined with the regional Qinling Orogeny should dominate the enhanced rate of terrigenous input and paleoenvironmental evolution in the Ordos Basin.     

中国地震台网各类前兆手段地震监测能力的评价

利用1988～2005年18年间全国会商会所提出的各类定点前兆异常,研究其与下一年(1989～2006年)大陆地震的对应关系,从414次地震资料的统计中得出,除地下水位和地磁外,其它5种前兆观测手段在有震区的异常比均低于无震区或全大陆的异常比,但各手段综合异常比在有震区要高于无震区。遵照"地震监测能力好的前兆手段,在其监测范围内,有震时应有较高的异常比,无震时应有较低的异常比"的原则,我们认为地磁和地下水位是比较好的前兆观测方法。     

北斗混合星座分层约束下的精密定轨方法

针对北斗导航卫星系统首创的GEO+IGSO+MEO混合星座设计,本文研究了根据不同星座,采取不同约束条件和数据处理策略的北斗卫星精密定轨方法,提出了一种针对北斗系统混合星座的分层约束精密定轨方案.该方案首先将北斗卫星分为非GEO(IGSO/MEO)和GEO两部分进行解算,利用GPS解算的公共参数对北斗IGSO/MEO精...     

Heavy metals,polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides in the surface sediments of mangrove swamps from coastal sites along the Leizhou Peninsula, South China

Contents of heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PA Hs）, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes （DDTs） and hexachlorcy- clohexanes （HCHs） in surface sediments from mangrove areas of the Leizhou Peninsula were analyzed in July and November 2005. Risk assessment criteria applied by Long E R et al. （1995） and Long E D et al. （1995） （effects range low, ERL; effects range mean, ERM） of chemicals in sediments from the gulf or estuary were used to assess the potential ecological risks of heavy metals, PAHs, DDTs and HCHs to aquatic organisms in the studied area. The results indicated that the average contents of zinc, nickel, chromium, lead, copper, arsenic and mercury were （61.97 ± 55.87）, （59.99 ± 39.01 ）, （47.93 ± 28.37）, （26.64± 13.00） , （23.45 ± 41.96）, （9.32 ± 3.62）, （0.14 ± 0.18） mg/kg in dry weight in the sediment samples col- lected from five studied sites in the Leizhou Peninsula, respectively. Cadmium was not calculated due to its content being below the detection limit （ 〈 0.3 mg,/kg）. The average levels of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg exceed their background values. The average contents of Ni were higher than ERM. The contents of PAHs in the sediments from the five studied sites were （79.78 ± 43.70） ng/g in dry weight, far lower than ERL（4 022 ng/g）. The contents of DDE, DDD and DDTs in the sediments from five studied sites were （2.60 ± 4.68）, （ 17.52 ± 27.25 ）, （27.78 ± 46.64） ng/g in dry weight respectively, clearly higher than ERL, and the average contents of DDT were （7.66 ± 15.93） ng/g in dry weight, much higher than ERM. HCHs could be detected in the sediments only from Gaoqiao sampling site, with the average contents （0.07 ± 0.08） ng/g in dry weight.     

2004年夏季台湾浅滩及其邻近海域悬浮体成分与分布特征

本文根据2004年7月25日至8月10日在台湾浅滩及其邻近海域获取的悬浮体样品,采用了"微孔滤膜法"取得数据,利用偏光显微镜、体视显微镜和扫描电镜及能谱分析,结果表明:悬浮体含量在水平分布上为由近岸向外逐渐降低,总体上表层悬浮体含量高于底层;悬浮体的成分包括粗颗粒组份(它生矿物碎屑、自生矿物和生源碎屑)和细颗粒组份(无机矿物颗粒和超微生源颗粒),其中表层矿物碎屑分布特征为由岸向外递减,底层矿物碎屑则为近岸低、浅滩区高和浅滩外侧低;自生矿物和表层生源碎屑都具有自岸向外增加的特点;细颗粒组份中无机矿物颗粒为主,超微生源颗粒含量较少.研究区悬浮体分布受水文因素、物质来源及海底地形的影响,中国大陆陆源输入影响研究区悬浮体成分及其分布特征.     

海底双层管单层连接管道结构受力分析

粘性高的海洋石油通常需要通过海底保温管道加温输送.温度变化会引起管道变形,并在管壁内产生较大的温度应力.同时,管道正常运营期间还受到管道内压、外压、管内流体粘滞力和土体摩擦力等环境荷载的作用.复杂的环境可能导致海底管道轴向应力过大发生破坏.为了提高铺管效率,提出了双层管单层连接管道这一特殊管道形式,并从理论上分析温度变化和环境荷载对该管道的影响,计算正常运行时管道不同位置处横截面内最大Von-Mises应力.最后得到了Von-Mises应力沿管道轴线分布情况,发现内管和单层连接管的应力一般比外管大,变径管和内管的焊缝处是Von-Mises应力最大的地方.     

温度和盐度对半滑舌鳎幼鱼消化酶活性的影响

以半滑舌鳎(Cynoglossus semilaevis Günther)幼鱼为实验对象,分别设置3个盐度水平(22、26和30)和4个温度水平(18,21,24和27 ℃),采用酶活性分析的方法比较研究了在不同温度和盐度的养殖环境下,半滑舌鳎肝胰脏和肠道内不同部位蛋白酶、淀粉酶和脂肪酶3种消化酶活性的差异.结果表明,盐度和温度对半滑舌鳎消化酶活性影响均显著 (P<0.05).不同温度和盐度组合下,3种消化酶活性变化有所差异.总体比较,肝胰脏和肠道内3种消化酶比活力均以盐度26、温度21和24 ℃组合下活性较高.在相同温度和盐度下,肝胰脏和肠道的不同部位的3种消化酶活性有所差异,其中,蛋白酶比活力以肝胰脏和后肠最高,显著高于前肠和中肠(P<0.05);淀粉酶比活力以肝胰脏内最高,各肠段之间淀粉酶比活力差异不显著(P>0.05);淀粉酶比活力也以肝胰脏内最高,其次分别为前肠、后肠和中肠,各部位脂肪酶比活力差异显著(P>0.05).本研究发现半滑舌鳎幼鱼体内淀粉酶比活力相对比较高,说明半滑舌鳎幼鱼对淀粉具有较强的消化能力,建议在配制半滑舌鳎幼鱼饲料时可适当提高淀粉比例,以降低饲料成本.     

一种新的L-集表现定理

在隶属度值格仅为完备格的条件下,研究了L-集轮和L-开集轮的特征性质,并以2种集轮为工具给出基于L-集轮和L-开集轮的L-集表现定理.由于隶属度值格仅为完备格,得到的L-集表现定理更有一般意义.     

特定折扣率的二度价格歧视研究

研究基于垄断厂商收益最大化的特定折扣率的定价问题,给出解的具体表达式,同时解决原有文献中需求函数为非线性函数时,最优固定折扣率的解的问题。