无旋转倾角的NAV/CNAV型GEO广播星历拟合

目前北斗GEO的星历拟合算法和用户卫星位置算法均引进了人为设置的5°倾角旋转,此外,少数星历参数还有超限现象。取消GEO的旋转倾角和抑制参数超限能够统一北斗混合星座的用户算法。基于第一类无奇点根数,分析了无旋转倾角的GEO两步法星历参数拟合算法。讨论了GEO的参数超限原因,提出采用固定1至2个超限参数取值的缩减参数拟合法。北斗GEO卫星在非地影期和地影期的拟合试验表明,拟合成功率和拟合精度能够保证,拟合用户距离误差(URE)的平均值优于3mm;缩减参数拟合法能够抑制特定时段下的参数超限问题,但是拟合URE放大到2cm。     

THE EFFECT OF EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC SSTAS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST CHINA DURING SPRING

The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China (SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data from 26 stations in SWC between 1961 and 2010, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, and Hadley global SST data. Sensitivity tests are conducted to assess the response of precipitation in SWC to SSTAs over two key oceanic domains, using the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The interannual variation of rainfall over SWC in spring is very significant. There are strong negative (positive) correlation coefficients between the anomalous precipitation over SWC and SSTAs over the equatorial central Pacific (the mid-latitude Pacific) during spring. Numerical simulations show that local rainfall in the northwest of the equatorial central Pacific is suppressed, and a subtropical anticyclone circulation anomaly is produced, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-latitude western Pacific occurs, when the equatorial Pacific SSTAs are in a cold phase in spring. Anomalous northerly winds appear in the northeastern part of SWC in the lower troposphere. Precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent of the western equatorial Pacific, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly appears in the northwest of the western equatorial Pacific. A trough over the Bay of Bengal enhances the southerly flow in the south of SWC. The trough also enhances the transport of moisture to SWC. The warm moisture intersects with anomalous cold air over the northeast of SWC, and so precipitation increases during spring. On the interannual time scale, the impacts of the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs on rainfall in SWC during spring are not significant, because the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are affected by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs; that is, the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are a feedback to the circulation anomaly caused by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs.     

气象卫星的云观测

云体现着不同尺度天气系统发生、发展和消亡的过程。云还通过反射太阳辐射和阻止地球发射辐射,维持着全球能量平衡。1960年气象卫星的出现,揭开了从浩瀚太空,俯视千变万化云系的历史。气象卫星云图的获取,加深了人们对天气、气候变化过程的认识,推进了大气科学的发展。本文围绕气象卫星云遥感主题,首先概述了利用卫星资料开展云检测、云相态识别、云光学厚度与等效粒子半径反演的原理和方法。而后,着重介绍了各类天气尺度和中尺度天气过程的云系特征。最后,文章回顾了国际卫星云气候方面的工作,展望了未来云观测技术的发展前景。     

基于LUCC的新疆沙尘源空间格局及转化机理分析

我国北方地区春夏季节沙尘天气频发,精准识别沙尘源区对于沙尘天气预报及区域生态环境治理意义重大。以新疆为典型研究区,采用2000、2005年和2010年3期土地利用/土地覆被数据,分析了新疆沙尘源的空间分布格局,并基于土地类型转移矩阵分析了不同类型沙尘源的转化情况。结果显示：新疆沙尘源的正、逆向转化主要跟人类活动相关。（1）沙漠/沙地转化敏感区主要分布于塔克拉玛干沙漠的西北边缘地区;转化为裸土类型沙尘源最主要的土地类型为河流/湖泊和草地,其中河流/湖泊的转化主要受自然条件影响,而草地的转化则是由过度放牧所导致。（2）岳普湖、伽师和巴楚等县区存在过度放牧现象;塔里木盆地北部以及准噶尔盆地内部等绿洲-荒漠交错带及人口聚集区域,存在大面积的垦荒现象。（3）新疆地区绿洲-荒漠交错带面积广阔,但其生态系统脆弱,为潜在的沙尘源区,应科学划定生态保护区,禁止过度放牧和无序垦荒。本文研究结果有望为区域生态环境治理及农牧业发展提供科学依据。     

中等排放情景下中国未来不同强度降雨对总降雨贡献的区域差异（2006―2100年）

采用RCP6.0中等排放情景下2006―2100年WRF 30 km×30 km日值降雨数据,根据中国气象局颁布的降雨强度等级划分标准,探究了中国不同强度降雨及其对总降雨贡献的变化趋势的空间差异特征。结果表明：1）在雨量上,中等排放情景下2006―2100年中国不同强度降雨呈现出不同的空间分异格局。小雨和中雨自东北向西南呈“高―低―高”的三块式空间分布特征;大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和总暴雨均呈“东南高,西北低”的分异格局;特大暴雨仅东南沿海的部分地区分布较多;总降雨呈“南方高,北方次之,西北低”的空间分异格局。2）在雨量贡献率上,强降雨对总降雨的贡献率普遍存在“东南高,西北低”特征,而弱降雨对总降雨的贡献率恰恰相反;不同强度暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率也有类似分布特征。3）在雨量变化趋势上,中国不同强度降雨变化趋势呈现出不同的空间分异格局,但强降雨呈增加趋势的区域显著多于呈减少趋势的区域。4）在雨量贡献率变化趋势上,强（弱）降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加（减少）趋势的区域占主导,强降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的地区明显多于弱降雨。5）在不同强度暴雨对总暴雨贡献率的变化趋势上,大暴雨和特大暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的区域明显多于暴雨。预估结果表明,中国东部降雨在朝着极端化方向发展。     

京津冀城市群大气污染的时空特征与影响因素解析

京津冀城市群是中国雾霾最严重的区域,在京津冀协同发展背景下,探究该地区大气污染的时空分布和影响因素具有重要意义。运用空间自相关分析和三种空间计量模型,分析了京津冀202个区县PM_2.5的时空分异特征,创新性地对自然与人文影响因素贡献及其空间溢出效应进行系统地甄别和量化。结果表明：2000-2014年来京津冀城市群PM_2.5浓度整体呈上升趋势,季节上呈秋冬高、春夏低,空间上呈东南高、西北低的特点,且城市建成区PM_2.5浓度比周围郊区和农村平均高10~20 μg/m³;2014年仅有13.9%的区县空气质量达标,PM_2.5浓度存在显著的空间集聚性与扩散性,城市间交互影响距离平均为200 km,邻近地区的PM_2.5每升高1%,将导致本地PM_2.5至少升高0.5%;社会经济内因对PM_2.5主要是正向影响,自然外因主要是负向影响;影响因素中对本地大气污染的直接效应贡献强度依次是：年均风速>年均气温>人口密度>地形起伏度>第二产业占比>能源消费>植被覆盖度,人均GDP、年降水量和相对湿度对本地PM_2.5没有显著影响;对邻近地区大气污染具有显著空间溢出效应的因素排序是：植被覆盖度>地形起伏度>能源消费>人口密度;对于自然和人文影响因素应分别采取针对性的适应策略和调控策略,加强区域间联防联控与合作治理,在城市群规划中注重环保规划与立法。     

Li2SO4溶液中离子间的缔合相互作用:基于密度泛函理论和分子动力学模拟的研究

基于密度泛函理论,使用B3LYP/aVDZ方法对[Li_2SO_4(H_2O)_n]~0(n=0~10、18)水合团簇的结构和性质进行了系统地研究,并结合Car-Parrinello分子动力学(CPMD)模拟了不同浓度的Li_2SO_4溶液结构,目的在于理解在Li_2SO_4溶液中离子间缔合相互作用及可能存在的物种。研究发现,对于[Li_2SO_4(H_2O)_n]~0(n=0~10、18)水合团簇,双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构比双配位双齿螯合接触离子对结构更稳定,溶剂共享离子对结构最不稳定。同时,CPMD模拟结果表明,在3.09和3.17 mol/kg的Li_2SO_4溶液中,双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构仍然是主要物种。以上结果表明在饱和的Li_2SO_4溶液(3.16 mol/kg)中,Li~+和SO_4~(2-)离子间的相互缔合作用主要以双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构的物种存在,而具有双配位双齿螯合离子对结构的物种占少数,溶剂共享离子对结构几乎不存在。     

Spatial distribution and influencing factors of interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical names in China

The interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical entities are the key areas of regional integrated management. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial patterns of the interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical names (ITPGN) from three aspects: numerical features, spatial variance and spatial agglomeration. The influencing factors of the distribution of ITPGN and the implications for the regional management were further discussed. GIS technology was used to visualize the distribution of ITPGN, analyze the spatial agglomeration and the influencing factors of ITPGN. A total of 11,325 ITPGN, including 4243 water ITPGN and 7082 terrain ITPGN, were extracted from the database of “China’s Second National Survey of Geographical Names (2014-2018)”, and the mountain geographical names were the largest type in ITPGN. Hunan Province had the largest number of the names in China, and Shanghai had the smallest number of the names. The spatial variance of the terrain ITPGN was larger than that of the water ITPGN, and the ITPGN showed a significant agglomeration phenomenon in the southern part of China. In addition, the relative elevation and the population had an impact on the distribution of the ITPGN. The largest number of the geographical names occurred in the regions where the relative elevation was between 1000-2000 meters, and where the population was between 40-50 million. Based on the analysis, it was suggested that the government should take the ITPGN as management units, optimize management strategies based on the characteristics of different types of ITPGN, strengthen the naming of unnamed interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical entities and balance the interests in the controversial ITPGN. This study demonstrated that GIS and spatial analysis techniques were useful for the research of ITPGN and the results could provide targeted management suggestions to realize coordinated development in the interprovincial regions.     

Pesticide-related Food Safety Risks: Farmers’ Self-protective Behavior and Food Safety Social Co-governance

This article investigates the sources of vegetables consumed by farmers, their perception of pesticide-related food safety risks and the behaviors they engage in to protect themselves, and explores the implications for the social co-governance (shehui gongzhi) of food safety emphasized by China’s recent Food Safety Law. The research site is a county in Yunnan Province where vegetable growing is the major source of income and livelihood for local farmers. We surveyed 417 farmers and collected 776 vegetable samples from 377 surveyed farmer households and tested them for organophosphate and carbamate pesticide residues using PR-12N Rapid Detection Instrument for Pesticide Residues. The results showed that farmers know about the risks to food safety caused by pesticides used in vegetable growing and they purposely avoid these risks by mainly consuming vegetables planted in home gardens or private plots that use little or no pesticides. Vegetable samples from these private plots had the lowest positive rate of pesticide residues (6.10%), compared with vegetable samples from commercial farmland (13.73%) and markets (12.66%), and the difference was statistically significant (X²=9.69,0.005相似文献   

Simulating Eastern-and Central-Pacific Type ENSO Using a Simple Coupled Model

Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models(GCMs) in capturing realistic central-Pacific(CP) El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermocline(TH) feedback and zonal advective(ZA) feedback play dominant roles in the development of eastern-Pacific(EP) and CP El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), respectively. In this work, a simple linear air-sea coupled model, which can accurately depict the strength distribution of the TH and ZA feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific, is used to investigate these two types of El Nino. The results indicate that the model can reproduce the main characteristics of CP ENSO if the TH feedback is switched off and the ZA feedback is retained as the only positive feedback, confirming the dominant role played by ZA feedback in the development of CP ENSO. Further experiments indicate that, through a simple nonlinear control approach, many ENSO characteristics,including the existence of both CP and EP El Nino and the asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, can be successfully captured using the simple linear air-sea coupled model. These analyses indicate that an accurate depiction of the climatological sea surface temperature distribution and the related ZA feedback, which are the subject of severe biases in GCMs, is very important in simulating a realistic CP El Nino.