“8.8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害天气特征分析

利用常规气象资料以及卫星、雷达资料,分析了“8.8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害.结果表明,这次强降水是在高空冷平流入侵,与700 hPa切变线配合,由地面冷空气扩散触发对流不稳定能量释放,造成的强对流天气.由于地形等原因形成的一系列γ中尺度气旋造成降水的分配极不均匀;强降水与亮温有很好的对应关系,但亮温并非唯一影响因素.多普勒雷达的径向速度对γ中尺度气旋具有很好的指示意义,表现在旋转速度可以指示涡旋强度;降水与γ中尺度气旋有很好的正相关关系.     

ENSO发展和衰减阶段的陕西夏季降水异常特征

利用1961—2008年陕西78个气象站夏季 (6—8月) 降水资料、NCEP/NCAR位势高度场和风场月平均再分析资料,采用合成及相关分析方法探讨ENSO发展和衰减阶段对陕西夏季降水异常的影响,以期为陕西夏季降水的气候预测提供线索和依据。结果表明:陕西夏季降水异常对ENSO发展和衰减阶段的响应存在显著差异,El Ni?o发展阶段和La Ni?a衰减阶段,陕西夏季降水偏少; El Ni?o衰减阶段和La Ni?a发展阶段,陕西夏季降水偏多; ENSO不同阶段对陕西7月降水影响最为显著。比较而言,El Ni?o事件对陕西夏季降水的影响更加显著。在El Ni?o衰减、La Ni?a发展阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,东亚夏季风偏弱,而在El Ni?o发展、La Ni?a衰减阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东,东亚夏季风偏强,El Ni?o过程对东亚夏季风强弱的影响更加显著。ENSO发展和衰减阶段通过影响大气环流变化和东亚夏季风的强弱,进而影响陕西夏季降水。     

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at least tropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change in the overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economic loss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under global warming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration and frequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels, the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased, suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China.     

中国大气气溶胶辐射特性参数的观测与研究进展

长期系统的气溶胶辐射特性观测资料是定量研究气溶胶辐射和气候效应的重要基础.本文综合介绍中国大气气溶胶辐射特性观测与研究现状和成果,重点包括以下内容:地面太阳光度计联网观测气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率、尺度谱;从全波段太阳辐射反演气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率;浊度计和黑碳仪测量地面气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数;地基/星载激光雷达观测气溶胶(后向散射系数)垂直分布;极轨/静止卫星遥感反演气溶胶光学特性.     

基于MonoRTM模型的微波辐射计反演方法研究

基于辐射传输模型MonoRTM计算天空亮温度,使用多元线性统计回归方法和BP神经网络方法分别对大气温度和水汽密度廓线进行了反演,检验并分析了两种方法的反演精度.结果表明,多元线性回归方法反演的温度偏差总体不大于6K,反演的水汽密度偏差小于4 g/m3;神经网络方法反演的温度偏差小于2K,反演的水汽密度误差总体不大于2 g/m3.与探空数据的对比表明,对于大气温度和水汽密度反演,BP神经网络方法的反演结果都要比多元线性回归方法的反演结果更接近探空资料值.     

Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.     

Records of the Moon‐forming impact and the 470 Ma disruption of the L chondrite parent body in the asteroid belt from U‐Pb apatite ages of Novato (L6)

Novato, a newly observed fall in the San Francisco Bay area, is a shocked and brecciated L6 ordinary chondrite containing dark and light lithologies. We have investigated the U‐Pb isotope systematics of coarse Cl‐apatite grains of metamorphic origin in Novato with a large geometry ion microprobe. The U‐Pb systematics of Novato apatite reveals an upper intercept age of 4472 ± 31 Ma and lower intercept age of 473 ± 38 Ma. The upper intercept age is within error identical to the U‐Pb apatite age of 4452 ± 21 Ma measured in the Chelyabinsk LL5 chondrite. This age is interpreted to reflect a massive collisional resetting event due to a large impact associated with the peak arrival time at the primordial asteroid belt of ejecta debris from the Moon‐forming giant impact on Earth. The lower intercept age is consistent with the most precisely dated Ar‐Ar ages of 470 ± 6 Ma of shocked L chondrites, and the fossil meteorites and extraterrestrial chromite relicts found in Ordovician limestones with an age of 467.3 ± 1.6 Ma in Sweden and China. The lower intercept age reflects a major disturbance related to the catastrophic disruption of the L chondrite parent body most likely associated with the Gefion asteroid family, which produced an initially intense meteorite bombardment of the Earth in Ordovician period and reset and degassed at least approximately 35% of the L chondrite falls today. We predict that the 470 Ma impact event is likely to be found on the Moon and Mars, if not Mercury.     

基于反射机制的MVC业务模块简化方案

简要介绍了MVC设计模式，对开发框架FrameServer的MVC实现过程进行丁研究，结合实例讨论了如何利用反射机制开发MVC业务模块，最后阐述了反射机制的优缺点。     

硝酸益康唑微囊化技术研究

以明胶与阿拉伯胶配比为囊材,Span60为乳化剂,戊二醛为交联剂,采用复凝聚法制备了硝酸益康唑微胶囊,并研究了制备工艺条件对微胶囊形态、粒度、药物包封率及释放特性的影响。结果表明,随药物与囊材配比增大,形成的微胶囊数目越多、粒径越小,包封率降低,释放速度增大;戊二醛的用量对微胶囊膜的机械强度、微胶囊形状和粒度及分散性有显著影响。     

Topographic zonation of infiltration in the hilly loess region,north china

Field infiltration tests using portable rainfall infiltrometers were conducted in the Wangjiagou experimental basin in the hilly loess region of north China. Based on data collected at 27 sites, a topographic zonation of infiltration characteristics was observed. The average steady infiltration rate and the average ponding time decreased from the hilltop to the hillslope and further decreased to the gully wall. Such a zonation is closely related to the variations of topography, soil and land use conditions in the study area. A general infiltration model is proposed. Collected field data are used to establish the applicability of the proposed model in the study area.