一次局地大暴雨的地面观测资料同化预报试验研究

基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其3DVAR（3-Dimentional Variational）资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km 、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 hPa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 hPa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。     

基于MonoRTM模型的微波辐射计反演方法研究

基于辐射传输模型MonoRTM计算天空亮温度,使用多元线性统计回归方法和BP神经网络方法分别对大气温度和水汽密度廓线进行了反演,检验并分析了两种方法的反演精度.结果表明,多元线性回归方法反演的温度偏差总体不大于6K,反演的水汽密度偏差小于4 g/m3;神经网络方法反演的温度偏差小于2K,反演的水汽密度误差总体不大于2 g/m3.与探空数据的对比表明,对于大气温度和水汽密度反演,BP神经网络方法的反演结果都要比多元线性回归方法的反演结果更接近探空资料值.     

高阶非线性系统自适应模糊有限时间状态约束控制

针对一类具有状态约束的非严格反馈高阶非线性系统,研究一种自适应模糊有限时间跟踪控制问题.首先,利用模糊逻辑系统逼近不确定性非线性函数,在此基础上,采用障碍Lyapunov函数,解决状态约束问题,通过障碍加幂积分方法和反步递推技术,提出了一种有限时间控制设计方法.在有限时间Lyapunov稳定意义下,严格证明闭环系统半全局实际有限时间稳定且系统的状态不超出给定的约束边界,并实现了有限时间跟踪控制目标.最后,仿真研究进一步验证了所提出控制方法的有效性.     

桂西北丹池成矿带主要金属矿床成矿特征及成矿规律

桂西北丹池成矿带是中国重要的有色金属成矿带之一,主要由芒场、大厂、五圩3个矿田组成。文章通过系统的地质调查和综合研究,总结了丹池成矿带主要金属矿床的成矿地质特征,以及矿床的成矿条件和成矿规律研究的新进展;论证了带内重要的多金属矿床为岩浆热液成因。带内燕山晚期花岗岩为高钾钙碱性、过铝质系列的含锡花岗岩,它具有高硅、高碱、贫钙、贫镁的特征;其在成因上为大陆地壳重熔的"S"型,可能源于桂北元古界四堡群或更老构造层的重熔,但也有幔源物质的混入。3个矿田中矿化的分带性明显,以花岗岩隆起为中心向外,矿化组合表现为高温W_Mo矿化、Zn_Cu_Sn矿化→高中温Sn多金属矿化→中低温Pb_Zn矿化→低温Sb_Hg_As矿化。成矿与成岩同期,成矿物质主要来自岩浆,部分来自赋矿的泥盆系;成矿流体早期以岩浆水为主,晚期有较多的大气降水的加入。同时,利用"缺位找矿"的思路,预示在研究程度相对较低的五圩矿田深部有较大的找矿潜力。     

Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018)

A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results have shown that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has a significant increasing trend over the Arabian Sea and an insignificant decreasing trend over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in both the Arabian Sea and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and October–November, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1–H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those in the over BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations have a meridional (zonal) distribution in May–June (October–November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by western and northwestern tropical cyclones by that track west and NW, accounting for about 74.6%, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean is affected by the topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas. FAN Xiao-ting (樊晓婷), LI Ying (李 英), et al.     

山东沿海海藻抗肿瘤活性的筛选

于1997年4月和2000年5月对山东沿海海藻进行较系统的采集，对其中39种海藻的96个样品采用高通量方法进行选择性细胞毒筛选，结果表明，小粘膜藻（Leathesia dif-formes)、多管藻（Polysiphonia urcedata)、萱cytosiphon lomentarius)、海萝（Gloiopeliis fur-cata)、叉开网翼藻（Dictyopteris diuaricata)、点叶菜（Punctaria latifolia)等对KB细胞或HT-29细胞具有选择性抑制活性。局醇、氯仿的提取效率较高，多管藻的乙醇、氯仿提取物，萱藻的乙醇提取物和叉开网翼藻的正己烷提取物都有强的选择性细胞毒活性。     

THE APPLICATION OF MINIATURE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE IN 25 NOVEMBER 2016 ARKETAO MW6.6 EARTHQUAKE

In order to complete the field investigation to the 25 November 2016 Arketao M_W6.6 earthquake, ultra-low altitude remote-sensing data were obtained from miniature unmanned aerial vehicle. The surface rupture surveying has important significance for earthquake research. This paper selects the macro-epicenter of Arketao as the study area. The pictures were obtained with DJI Phantom 3 professional input into the software, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Digital Orthophoto Map (DOM) were acquired based on photogrammetry method using the overlapped optical remote-sensing images of UAV. Using these data, we can identify surface ruptures that have vertical dislocation. We selected six feature points and drew the elevation profile. In the elevation profile map, we chose smooth part of the surface rupture sides and obtained the trend line. A stable point in the surface rupture was selected and the abscissa of the point was taken into the equation of two straight lines. Then subtracting the results of the two equations, we can get the vertical dislocation of the surface rupture. On this basis, we chose six feature points and determined their vertical dislocation, which are between 4.4cm and 10.4cm. What's more, taking Bulungkou Xiang in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for example, we speculated some surface ruptures that have vertical dislocation. It can provide a new method for identifying surface rupture in the field. In addition, we get DEM data of the Bulunkou area where ambient conditions are very poor, by using miniature unmanned aerial vehicle and taking 255 photos. Putting those photos into the EasyUAV software, we got the area digital elevation of 2cm resolution. Comparing these data with RTK data, we summarized some practical problems and solutions in the practical operation and evaluated the accuracy of miniature unmanned aerial vehicle data. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.996 6. In terms of absolute elevation, the average result of UAV and RTK differs by 156.96m. In terms of relative elevation, the average result of UAV and RTK differs by 9.74m. Compared with the previous test of Pishan County, there is a notable divergence in the results. It shows that the data accuracy will be affected to some extent in the cold weather in high elevations. The specific impact needs further exploration.     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流沟内崩滑物空间分布的RS-GIS定量方法

汶川地震在山区引发大量崩塌、滑坡,形成大量的固体松散碎屑物质堆积在沟谷内(CLCAR,崩滑碎屑区),使得地震山区泥石流活动性增强。以岷江上游四川省汶川县银杏乡、映秀镇的15条泥石流沟的SPOT遥感影像为基础,利用GIS技术对CLCAR空间分布进行分析。建立CLCAR与流域高程、主沟侧距和沟口纵距的分布函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x),对CLCAR的空间分布特征进行描述;并计算其积分(DT、DM和DG)作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。结果表明,函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x)能够较全面描述CLCAR的空间分布特征,DT、DM和DG能够作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。泥石流沟谷内CLCAR的空间分布对泥石流的形成及规模具有一定的影响;在对灾区泥石流研究时有必要考虑泥石流沟内CLCAR空间分布特征。     

西昆仑库科西鲁克地区基性岩脉地球化学及构造意义

新疆库科西鲁克地区广泛发育基性岩脉,多呈岩墙、岩枝和小岩滴。基性岩脉岩石类型为辉长岩和辉绿岩。辉长岩属于碱性玄武岩,而辉绿岩属于过铝质碱性系列碱玄武岩与粗面玄武岩过渡型,其形成深度（浅成相）比辉长岩浅（中深成相）。区内基性岩脉形成于闭合边缘岛弧、活动陆缘造山带环境,是由幔源原生岩浆经过分异并同化混染地壳物质而形成,结晶分异是控制岩浆演化的主要因素。辉长岩中δEu具有弱的亏损。辉绿岩δEu为正异常,而C e均具弱亏损,成岩氧逸度较高,其成因与典型的I型花岗岩类相似,为壳幔混合型。辉长岩偏幔源,而辉绿岩偏壳源,可能为幔源岩浆上侵受围岩混染所致。辉长岩年龄（119 M a）要比辉绿岩年龄（46.1M a）老,辉长岩为冈底斯陆块向欧亚大陆板块碰撞拼贴过程中,逆冲挤压结束的标志,辉绿岩为大规模逆冲挤压剪切结束,青藏高原隆升初期拉张作用的产物。     

关键金属元素分析测试技术方法应用进展

以稀有、稀散、稀土、铂族元素为主体的战略性关键金属矿产资源,在新材料、新能源和信息技术等新兴产业中发挥着越来越关键的作用。随着我国关键矿产资源地质调查的不断深入,关键金属元素以其赋存基体复杂、不同矿物含量差异大、化学性质不稳定等特点对分析测试技术提出了新的挑战。本文根据化学组成不同,对关键金属元素主要赋存基体进行了分类,主要分为硅酸盐、碳酸盐、硫酸盐、钨酸盐、磷酸盐、氧化物、硫化物、卤化物等。对于不同的基体岩石矿物,通常采用酸溶法(硝酸-氢氟酸组合、王水)或碱熔法等传统溶样方法进行化学消解。评述了当前关键金属元素测试常用的电子探针、电感耦合等离子体质谱、电感耦合等离子体发射光谱、X射线荧光光谱等仪器的特点及应用,总结了关键金属元素分析过程中出现的样品难溶解、回收率不完全、测试过程氧化物和同质异位素干扰、样品和标准基体不一致等常见问题,并提出了相应的解决方案。微区原位分析凭借其高效率、低成本、高空间分辨率的优势,以及野外现场分析凭借其简单快速、贴近野外工作的特点是关键金属元素测试技术发展的主要趋势。