On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state

Systematic model error remains a difficult problem for seasonal forecasting and climate predictions. An error in the mean state could affect the variability of the system. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the mean state on the properties of ENSO. A set of coupled decadal integrations have been conducted, where the mean state and its seasonal cycle have been modified by applying flux correction to the momentum-flux and a combination of heat and momentum fluxes. It is shown that correcting the mean state and the seasonal cycle improves the amplitude of SST inter-annual variability and also the penetration of the ENSO signal into the troposphere and the spatial distribution of the ENSO teleconnections are improved. An analysis of a multivariate PDF of ENSO shows clearly that the flux correction affects the mean, variance, skewness and tails of the distribution. The changes in the tails of the distribution are particularly noticeable in the case of precipitation, showing that without the flux correction the model is unable to reproduce the frequency of large events. For the inter-annual variability the momentum-flux correction alone has a large impact, while the additional heat-flux correction is important for the teleconnections. These results suggest that the current forecasts practices of removing the forecast bias a-posteriori or anomaly initialisation are by no means optimal, since they can not deal with the strong nonlinear interactions. A consequence of the results presented here is that the predictability on annual time-ranges could be higher than currently achieved. Whether or not the correction of the model mean state by some sort of flux correction leads to better forecasts needs to be addressed. In any case, flux correction may be a powerful tool for diagnosing coupled model errors and predictability studies.     

Cosmogenic-nuclide ages for New England coastal moraines, Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA

Cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages for 13 glacially transported boulders atop the Martha's Vineyard moraine, MA, USA, indicate that the southeastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet reached its maximum extent during the last glaciation 23,200±500 yr ago. Another 10 age determinations from the younger Buzzards Bay moraine near Woods Hole, MA, indicate that this moraine complex was formed 18,800±400 yr ago. These ages correlate approximately with the terminations of cooling cycles recorded in Greenland ice cores and coeval ice-rafting events, suggesting that the marginal position of this sector of the ice sheet was tightly coupled to North Atlantic climate during the last glacial maximum.     

Determination of evaporation from integrated profiles of humidity and temperature over an inhomogeneous surface

In this study a moderate-sized alfalfa field was downwind of a large dry region. Measured vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and wind at upwind and downwind sides of the field were used to calculate the short-term evaporation rate, as well as the contribution of horizontally transported or advected heat energy to the evaporation. The vertical profiles must be measured at least to the height at which air is modified by the new surface. In this case that height was as large as 18 m over a several hundred meter long traverse.Evaporation rates calculated by such an approach were in very close agreement to surface fluxes measured by an eddy correlation system near the surface. The difference between calculated and measured values averaged 9.5%. The reduction in sensible heat content of the air of the control volume was substantial during passage over the field. If all this energy was assumed to have been used in evaporation, then the advection of heat contributed from 35 to 86% of the total evaporation rate.It appears that for an inhomogeneous surface, knowledge of the distortion of some properties of local boundary layers can yield reliable estimates of local evaporation. The approach has little empiricism as it is based on simple conservation laws.     

SHAPED CHARGE—A POWERFUL EXPLOSIVE SURFACE SEISMIC SOURCE *

The directional effect of shaped charge is a well-known feature used for a long time in military weapons, oil well guns, and steel industry. This charge was successfully applied as a seismic energy source by Petrobrás during the past three years under different surface and geological conditions. Preliminary amplitude measurements taken with fixed gain shallow refraction instruments showed a consistent difference between conventional and shaped charges. Lately, a similar difference has been noted in deep reflection energy recorded with digital binary gain instruments as well as in deep oil well velocity surveys. Direct comparisons along more than 50 km of multiple coverage field reflection shooting are in agreement with these results and have proved the practical advantage of this source as compared to conventional dynamite. This source has been used since 1971 in routine seismic operation in the Amazon jungle with 300 gram unit charges distributed in small and large shot arrays increasing substantially the coverage and halving the cost at a higher record quality. A large amount of production seismic field work has been carried out in several other areas attesting the successful application of the shaped charges.     

Distribution of Mantle Up-welling Determined from Plate Motions: A Case for Large-scale Bénard Convection

—?The number and geometric distribution of putative mantle up-welling centers and the associated convection cell boundaries are determined from the lithospheric plate motions as given by the 14 Euler poles of the observational NUVEL model. For an assumed distribution of up-welling centers (called “cell-cores”) the corresponding cell boundaries are constructed by a Voronoi division of the spherical surface; the resulting polygons are called “Bénard cells.” By assuming the flow-kinematics within a cell, the viscous coupling between the flow and the plates is estimated, and the Euler poles for the plates are computed under the assumption of zero-net-torque. The positions of the cell-cores are optimized for the HS2-NUVEL1 Euler poles by a method of successive approximation (“subplex”); convergence to one of many local minima occurred typically after ～20,000 iterations. Cell-cores associated with the fourteen HS2-NUVEL1 Euler poles converge to a relatively small number of locations (8 to 10, depending on interpretation), irrespective of the number of convection cells submitted for optimized distribution (from 6 to 50). These locations are correlated with low seismic propagation velocities in tomography, uniformly occur within hotspot provinces, and may specifically be associated with the Hawaiian, Iceland, Reunion/Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), Easter Island, Melanesia/Society Islands (South Pacific), Azores/Cape Verde/Canary Islands, Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic), Balleny Islands, and possibly Yellowstone hotspots. It is shown that arbitrary Euler poles cannot occur in association with mantle Bénard convection, irrespective of the number and the distribution of convection cells. Nevertheless, eight of the observational Euler poles – including the five that are accurately determined in HS2-NUVEL1 (Australia, Cocos, Juan de Fuca, Pacific, and Philippine) – are “Bénard-valid” (i.e., can be explained by our Bénard model). Five of the remaining six observational poles must be relocated within their error-ellipses to become Bénard-valid; the Eurasia pole alone appears to be in error by ～115°, and may actually lie near 40°N, 154°E. The collective results strongly suggest Bénard-like mantle convection cells, and that basal shear tractions are the primary factor in determining the directions of the plate motions as given by the Euler poles. The magnitudes of the computed Euler vectors show, however, that basal shear cannot be the exclusive driving force of plate tectonics, and suggest force contributions (of comparable magnitude for perhaps half of the plates) from the lithosphere itself, specifically subducting slab-pull and (continental) collision drag, which are provisionally evaluated. The relationship of the putative mantle Bénard polygons to dynamic chaos and turbulent flow is discussed.     

Instability of gradient dependent elasto-viscoplasticity for clay

A gradient-dependent viscoplastic constitutive model for water saturated clay is proposed to describe the strain localization phenomena and pattern formation during deformation. Second- and fourth-order gradients of volumetric viscoplastic strain are introduced into the constitutive equations to account for the non-local effects due to the motion of microstructures. A linear perturbation analysis is applied to this model. The instability of the government equations (i.e. the constitutive equations and the equations of motion for the clay skeleton and pore water) is discussed for both the one-dimensional and the two-dimensional situations. In addition, issues concerned with the formulation of boundary value problems by finite element analysis in relation to the formulation and the boundary conditions are presented. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance analysis of the spaceborne laser ranging system

The Spaceborne Laser Ranging System is a proposed short pulse laser on board an orbiting spacecraft.^1,2,3,4 It measures the distance between the spacecraft and many laser retroreflectors (targets) deployed on the Earth’s surface. The precision of these range measurements is assumed to be about ±2 cm (M. W. Fitzmaurice, private communication). These measurements are then used together with the orbital dynamics of the spacecraft, to derive the relative position of the laser ground targets. Assuming a six day observing period with 50% cloud cover, uncertainties in the baseline for target separations of 50 km to 1200 km were estimated to be on the order of 1 to 3 cm and the corresponding values in the vertical direction, ranged from 1 cm to 12 cm. By redetermining the measurements of the relative target positions, the estimated precision in the baseline for a target separation of 50 km is less than 0.3 cm and for a separation of 1200 km is less than 1 cm. In the vertical direction, the estimated precision ranged from 0.4 cm to 4.0 cm respectively. As a result of the repeated estimation of the relative laser target positions, most of the non-temporal effects of error sources as exemplified by the errors in geopotential are reduced. The Spaceborne Laser Ranging System’s capability of determining baselines to a high degree of precision provides a measure of strain and strain rate as shown byCohen, 1979. These quantities are essential for crustal dynamic studies which include determination and monitoring of strain near seismic zones, land subsidence, and edifice building preceding volcanic eruptions. It is evident that such a system can also be used for geodetic surveys where such precisions are more than adquate.     

Impact of fertilizer phosphorus application on phosphorus release kinetics in some calcareous soils

Phosphate reactions and retention in the soil are of paramount importance from the perspective of plant nutrition and fertilizer use efficiency. The objective of this work was to study the kinetics of phosphorus (P) desorption in different soils of Hamadan in fertilized and unfertilized soils. Soils were fertilized with 200 mg P kg⁻¹. Fertilized and unfertilized soils were incubated at 25 ± 1°C for 6 months. After that, release of P was studied by successive extraction with 0.5 M NaHCO₃ over a period of 1,752 h. The results showed that phosphorus desorption from the fertilized and unfertilized soils began with a fast initial reaction, followed by a slow secondary reaction. The amount of P released after 1,752 h in fertilized and unfertilized soils ranged from 457 to 762.4 and 309.6 to 586.7 mg kg⁻¹, respectively. The kinetics of cumulative P release was evaluated using the five kinetic equations. Phosphorus desorption kinetics were best described by parabolic diffusion law, first order, and power function equations. Rate constants of these equations were higher in fertilized than unfertilized soils. Results from this study indicate that release rate of P plays a significant role in supplying available P and released P in runoff.