The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets

For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO₂-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO₂eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3–5 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO₂eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.     

Stationary magnetospheric convection on November 24, 1981. 1. A case study of “pressure gradient/minimum-B” auroral arc generation

We present two case studies in the night and evening sides of the auroral oval, based on plasma and field measurements made at low altitudes by the AUREOL-3 satellite, during a long period of stationary magnetospheric convection (SMC) on November 24, 1981. The basic feature of both oval crossings was an evident double oval pattern, including (1) a weak arc-type structure at the equatorial edge of the oval/polar edge of the diffuse auroral band, collocated with an upward field-aligned current (FAC) sheet of ≈1.0 μA m⁻², (2) an intermediate region of weaker precipitation within the oval, (3) a more intense auroral band at the polar oval boundary, and (4) polar diffuse auroral zone near the polar cap boundary. These measurements are compared with the published magnetospheric data during this SMC period, accumulated by Yahnin et al. and Sergeev et al., including a semi-empirical radial magnetic field profile B_Z in the near-Earth neutral sheet, with a minimum at about 10–14 R_E. Such a radial B_Z profile appears to be very similar to that assumed in the “minimum B/cross-tail line current” model by Galperin et al. (GVZ92) as the “root of the arc”, or the arc generic region. This model considers a FAC generator mechanism by Grad-Vasyliunas-Boström-Tverskoy operating in the region of a narrow magnetic field minimum in the near-Earth neutral sheet, together with the concept of ion non-adiabatic scattering in the “wall region”. The generated upward FAC branch of the double sheet current structure feeds the steady auroral arc/inverted-V at the equatorial border of the oval. When the semi-empirical B_Z profile is introduced in the GVZ92 model, a good agreement is found between the modelled current and the measured characteristics of the FACs associated with the equatorial arc. Thus the main predictions of the GVZ92 model concerning the “minimum-B” region are consistent with these data, while some small-scale features are not reproduced. Implications of the GVZ92 model are discussed, particularly concerning the necessary conditions for a substorm onset that were not fulfilled during the SMC period.     

Biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, and free oxygen in a microbial mat

Complete budgets for carbon and oxygen have been constructed for cyanobacterial mats dominated by Microcoleus chthonoplastes from the evaporating ponds of a salt works located in Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Included in the budget are measured rates of O2 production, sulfate reduction, and elemental exchange across the mat/brine interface, day and night, at various temperatures and times of the year. We infer from this data the various sinks for O2, as well as the sources of carbon for primary production. To summarize, although seasonal variability exists, a major percentage of the O2 produced during the day did not diffuse out of the mat but was used within the mat to oxidize both organic carbon and the sulfide produced by sulfate reduction. At night, most of the O2 that diffused into the mat was used to oxidize sulfide, with O2 respiration of minor importance. During the day, the internal mat processes of sulfate reduction and O2 respiration generated as much or more inorganic carbon (DIC) for primary production as diffusion into the mat. Also, oxygenic photosynthesis was the most important process of carbon fixation, although anoxygenic photosynthesis may have been important at low light levels during some times of the year. At night, the DIC lost from the mat was mostly from sulfate reduction. Elemental fluxes across the mat/brine interface indicated that carbon with an oxidation state of greater than zero was taken up by the mat during the day and liberated from the mat at night. Overall, carbon with an average oxidation state of near zero accumulated in the mat. Both carbon fixation and carbon oxidation rates varied with temperature by a similar amount. These mats are thus closely coupled systems where rapid rates of photosynthesis both require and fuel rapid rates of heterotrophic carbon oxidation.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Feeding Habits of Trisopterus minutus capelanus (Gadidae) Off the Eastern Coast of Spain (Western Mediterranean)

Abstract. The stomach contents of poor cod, Trisopterus minutus capelanus (Lacepède), were taken at monthly intervals off the eastern coast of the Gulf of Valencia (Spain). A total of 1276 were analyzed to determine diet according to fish size and season. The basic food consists of crustaceans (Mysidacea and Decapoda) and teleosts. Feeding habits varied with size: decapods and fishes were more abundant in the stomachs of larger specimens. Little seasonal variation in food habits was recorded.     

CURRENT CHANNELLING IN SQUARE PLATES WITH APPLICATIONS TO MAGNETOMETRIC RESISTIVITY1

The magnetometric resistivity (MMR) method uses a sensitive magnetometer to measure the low-level, low-frequency magnetic fields associated with the galvanic current flow between a pair of electrodes. While the MMR anomalies of simple structures such as dikes and vertical contacts have been determined analytically, there is a lack of systematic information on the expected responses from simple three-dimensional bodies. We determine the characteristic anomalies associated with square, plate-like conductors, which are excellent models of many base metal mineral deposits. The anomalies of plates of finite size are determined numerically using an integral equation method. A plate is subdivided into many sections and the current flow within each section is solved by equating the electrical field within each section to the tangential electrical field just outside it. When the plate size is small in relation to either the depth or the transmitter spacing, the shape and amplitude of the anomaly produced is closely approximated by a current dipole model of the same length and depth. At the other extreme, a large plate is represented by a half-plane. The dipole and half-plane models are used to bracket the behaviour of plates of finite size. The form of a plate anomaly is principally dependent on the shape, depth and orientation of the plate. A large, dipping plate near the surface produces a skewed anomaly highly indicative of its dip, but the amount of skew rapidly diminishes with increased depth or decreased size. Changes in plate conductivity affect the amplitude of the anomaly, but have little effect on anomaly shape. A current channelling parameter, determined from the conductivity contrast, can thus be used to scale the amplitude of an anomaly whose basic shape has been determined from geometrical considerations. The separation into geometrical and electrical factors greatly simplifies both the interpretation and modelling of MMR anomalies, particularly in situations with multiple plates. An empirical formula, using this separation, predicts the anomaly of two or more parallel plates with different conductances. In addition, the relation between the resolution of two vertical, parallel plates of equal conductance and their separation is determined. The ability of the integral equation method to model plate-like structures is demonstrated with the interpretation of an MMR anomaly in a survey conducted at Cork Tree Well in Western Australia. The buried conductor, a mineralized graphitic zone, is modelled with a vertical, bent plate. The depth to the top of the plate, and the plate conductance, is adjusted to fit the anomaly amplitude as closely as possible. From the modelling it would appear that this zone is not solely responsible for the observed anomaly.     

ADAPTIVE SIGNAL PROCESSING THROUGH STOCHASTIC APPROXIMATION*

One of the problems in signal processing is estimating the impulse response function of an unknown system. The well-known Wiener filter theory has been a powerful method in attacking this problem. In comparison, the use of stochastic approximation method as an adaptive signal processor is relatively new. This adaptive scheme can often be described by a recursive equation in which the estimated impulse response parameters are adjusted according to the gradient of a predetermined error function. This paper illustrates by means of simple examples the application of stochastic approximation method as a single-channel adaptive processor. Under some conditions the expected value of its weight sequence converges to the corresponding Wiener optimum filter when the least-mean-square error criterion is used.