The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Rock salt mass in the Paleoproterozoic sequence of the Onega trough in Karelia (from the Onega parametric well data)

A thick (200 m) rock salt mass covering Late Archean granitoids was exposed for the first time in the Early Proterozoic volcanogenic-sedimentary formations in the Onega trough of the east Baltic Shield by the Onega parametric well. The mineral composition of salts, their geochemical features, and the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon and oxygen have been studied. After fluid inclusions present in salts, their metamorphism temperature and isotopic composition of helium and argon were determined. The obtained results give evidence of the fact that rock salts and magnesites associated with them were formed in an evaporate basin with participation of deep crustal processes. The age of the underlying granitoids (2.716 ± 9 Ma) is determined using the Pb—Pb method.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

Photoelectric device for monitoring the movement of a torsion balance beam

Manufactured and tested in his work is a photoelectric device that makes it possible to automatically determine the relative angular position of the beam of a miniature torsion balance, angular readings being discretized with various time step values and stored in a computer. Measurements were taken with this device that captured the occurrence of the partial solar eclipse on September 11, 2007, and confirmed the fact, established previously through visual observation, that the position of torsion balance beams changed at the instant an eclipse took place.     

Experiments on numerical modeling of intense convection

Results of numerical simulations using the WRF-ARW nonhydrostatic model are presented for eight episodes of intense convection over European Russia in the summer of 2007. The calculations were performed on four nested grids with horizontal grid meshes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km. Convection was parametrized on the first two grids and explicitly resolved on the other two. It has been found that simulations on finer grids with explicit calculation of convective flows make it possible to reproduce heavy rainfalls and strong-wind zones in the areas of intense convection. A preliminary verification of the short-range predictions of convective systems shows that the maximum 12-h precipitation totals and the maximum winds at 10 m are close, in the order of magnitude, to the observed values. Prediction of convection centers is the weakest point. Difficulties in the model verification associated with the absence of data with high space-time resolution are discussed.     

Spectroscopic binaries near the North Galactic Pole paper 6: BD 33° 2206

Photoelectric radial-velocity measurements have confirmed O. C. Wilson’s finding that BD 33° 2206, the secondary star in the wide visual binary ADS 8470, is a spectroscopic binary. It has an eccentric orbit with a period of 100 days. Its γ-velocity is close to the constant radial velocity of the visual primary, confirming the physical association of the stars.     

Synchrotron spectra of short-period pulsars

A model with synchrotron radiation near the light cylinder is proposed to explain the observed spectra of short-period pulsars (P≤0.1 s). These spectra can be described if a power-law energy distribution of the emitting electrons with exponent γ=2–8 is assumed. For most pulsars, the peak frequency ν_m is below 10 MHz. The ν_m(γ) dependence is derived, and shows that the peak frequencies for pulsars with spectral indices α<1.5 may fall in the observable range. In particular, ν_m may be ν_m ～ 100 MHz for PSR J0751 + 1807 and PSR J1640 + 2224. The observed radio spectrum of Geminga (PSR J0633 + 1746) can be described by a synchrotron model with a monoenergetic or Maxwellian distribution of relativistic electrons and a small angle β between the spin axis and magnetic moment (β ～ 10°).     

Regularized derivatives of potential fields and their role in semi-automated interpretation methods

Evaluation of higher derivatives (gradients) of potential fields plays an important role in geophysical interpretation (qualitative and/or quantitative), as has been demonstrated in many approaches and methods. On the other hand, numerical evaluation of higher derivatives is an unstable process – it has the tendency to enlarge the noise content in the original data (to degrade the signal-to-noise ratio). One way to stabilize higher derivative evaluation is the utilization of the Tikhonov regularization. In the submitted contribution we present the derivation of the regularized derivative filter in the Fourier domain as a minimization task by means of using the classical calculus of variations. A very important part of the presented approach is the selection of the optimum regularization parameter – we are using the analysis of the C-norm function (constructed from the difference between two adjacent solutions, obtained for different values of regularization parameter). We show the influence of regularized derivatives on the properties of the classical 3D Euler deconvolution algorithm and apply it to high-sensitivity magnetometry data obtained from an unexploded ordnance detection survey. The solution obtained with regularized derivatives gives better focused depth-estimates, which are closer to the real position of sources (verified by excavation of unexploded projectiles).