Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk‐based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network–reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non‐linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and ‘failure’ domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea-level rise impacts on longitudinal salinity for a low-gradient estuarine system

Climatic Change - Salinity response to sea-level rise is evaluated for a low-gradient, tidally active estuary, the lower St. Johns River, Florida. A high-resolution numerical model is forced by...     

Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Thermal evolution of an extensional detachment as constrained by organic metamorphic data and thermal modeling: Graz Paleozoic Nappe Complex (Eastern Alps)

Following Early Cretaceous nappe stacking, the Eastern Alps were affected by late-orogenic extension during the Late Cretaceous. In the eastern segment of this range, a Late Cretaceous detachment separates a very low- to low-grade metamorphic cover (Graz Paleozoic Nappe Complex, GPNC) above a low- to high-grade metamorphic basement. Synchronously, the Kainach Gosau Basin (KGB) collapsed and subsided on top of the section.Metamorphism of organic material within this section has been investigated using vitrinite reflectance data and Raman spectra of extracted carbonaceous material. In the southern part of the GPNC, vitrinite reflectance indicates a decrease in organic maturity towards the stratigraphic youngest unit. The remaining part of the GPNC is characterized by an aureole of elevated vitrinite reflectance values and Raman R2 ratios that parallels the margins of the GPNC. Vitrinite reflectance in the KGB shows a steep coalification gradient and increases significantly towards the western basin margin. The observed stratigraphic trend in the southern GPNC is a result of deep Paleozoic to Early Cretaceous burial. This maturity pattern was overprinted along the margins by advective heat and convective fluids during Late Cretaceous to Paleogene exhumation of basement rocks.During shearing, the fault zone was heated up to ca. 500 °C. This overprint is explained by a two-dimensional thermal model with a ramp-flat fault geometry and a slip rate of 1 to 1.5 cm/year during 5 Ma fault movement. The collapse basin above the detachment subsided in a thermal regime which was characterized by relaxing isotherms.     

基于交互多模型的水下目标跟踪方法

According to the requirements of real-time performance and reliability in underwater maneuvering target tracking as well as clarifying motion features of the underwater target, an interacting multiple model algorithm based on fuzzy logic inference （FIMM） is proposed. Maneuvering patterns of the target are represented by model sets, including the constant velocity model （CA）, the Singer mode~, and the nearly constant speed horizontal-turn model （HT） in FIMM technology. The simulation results show that compared to conventional IMM, the reliability and real-time performance of underwater target tracking can be improved by FIMM algorithm.     

Analytical methods for error propagation in planar space–time prisms

The space–time prism demarcates all locations in space–time that a mobile object or person can occupy during an episode of potential or unobserved movement. The prism is central to time geography as a measure of potential mobility and to mobile object databases as a measure of location possibilities given sampling error. This paper develops an analytical approach to assessing error propagation in space–time prisms and prism–prism intersections. We analyze the geometry of the prisms to derive a core set of geometric problems involving the intersection of circles and ellipses. Analytical error propagation techniques such as the Taylor linearization method based on the first-order partial derivatives are not available since explicit functions describing the intersections and their derivatives are unwieldy. However, since we have implicit functions describing prism geometry, we modify this approach using an implicit function theorem that provides the required first-order partials without the explicit expressions. We describe the general method as well as details for the two spatial dimensions case and provide example calculations.     

TWO STRUCTURAL MODELS FOR THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BRABANT MASSIF*

This paper is concerned with an interpretation of the Bouguer anomaly on the Western flank of the Brabant Massif (Belgium). The position, shape, and density contrast of elementary bodies in the upper part of the earth's crust are determined in a purely numerical manner. A batholith-like body and a basin-type structure both adequately account for the observed surface field, at least from a one-sided geophysical and mathematical point of view. Since seismological control is lacking the two models are representative of the ambiguity and indeterminacy of the definitions of the geologic cause of the anomalous features, if the data are restricted to gravity information alone.     

Sedimentation on the Ionian active margin (Hellenic arc) — Provenance of sediments and mechanisms of deposition

Lithological, sedimentological, mineralogical and faunal analyses of twenty cores from the western Peloponnesus margin and adjacent Matapan Trench permit the origin of the sediments and the processes of sedimentation to be defined in some detail.Except for the ash layers derived from the Ischian Province, the major part of the sediment is local in origin (Peloponnesus). Analyses of heavy, light and clay minerals enable three main provinces to be distinguished. Each of these provinces includes one or more slope basins and a portion of trench, without lateral connection between them and mixing of inputs.The diversity and complexity of sedimentary structures, the granulometric characters, the mixed fauna (molluscs and ostracods) and the variability of rates of sedimentation all testify to the prevalence of reworking phenomena and gravitative processes.These data confirm and elaborate on the model of sedimentation deduced from seismic studies in which sediments are successively trapped, released by the slope basins and transferred via channels and canyons towards the underlying trench basins. This “cascade feeding” appears characteristics of this subductive sedimentary environment.     

Acid mine drainage at Cerro Rico de Potosí I: unabated high-strength discharges reflect a five century legacy of mining

Intensive mining and processing of Ag, Sn, Pb and Zn ores have occurred in various locations within and around the city of Potosí, Bolivia since 1545. Surface and subsurface waters, stream sediments and soils are contaminated with various ecotoxic metals in the headwaters of the economically vital, yet highly impacted, upper Rio Pilcomayo watershed. Previous studies have documented downstream trace metal contamination, however, not addressed specific sources. The AMD discharges identified in this study help link downstream pollution to primary origins. The majority of AMD would be considered high-strength due to metal concentrations and acidity orders of magnitude greater than typical AMD. Discharges from both operating and abandoned portals as well as tailings-related deposits displayed a high degree of heterogeneity with total metal concentrations ranging from 0.11 to 7480, <0.022 to 889, <0.0006 to 65.3, <0.001 to 310, 0.12 to 72,100, 0.3 to 402, <0.012 to 34.8, and 0.24 to 19,600 mg/L of Al, As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn, respectively. Net acidity and pH ranged from −10 to 246,000 mg/L as CaCO₃ equivalent and 0.90–6.94 standard units, respectively. Data were gathered during two sampling events centered around the most extreme periods of the dry and wet seasons of one water-year. Loadings to local streams were marginally greater for most metals in the wet season. If observed loadings are historically representative, Cerro Rico AMD has contributed thousands of tonnes of ecotoxic metals to the upper Rio Pilcomayo over the last five centuries. Metal and hydrogen ion concentrations in the majority of AMD sampled were several orders of magnitude above discharge limits set by the Bolivian government, yet no action has historically or contemporarily been taken.