Assessment of rock slope stability by probabilistic-based Slope Stability Probability Classification method along highway cut slopes in Adilcevaz-Bitlis (Turkey)

Rock slope stability is of great concern along highway routes as stability problems on cut slopes may cause fatal events as well as loss of property. In rock slope engineering, stability evaluations are commonly performed by means of analytical or numerical analyses, principally considering the factor of safety concept. As a matter of fact, the probabilistic assessment of slope stability is progressively getting popularity due to difficulties in assigning the most appropriate values to design parameters in analytical or numerical methods. Additionally, the effect of heterogeneities in rock masses and discontinuities on the analysis results is minimized through the probabilistic concept. In this study, slope stability of high and steep sedimentary rock cut slopes along a state highway in Adilcevaz-Bitlis (Turkey) was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic approach using the Slope Stability Probability Classification (SSPC) system. The probabilistic assessment indicates major slope stability problems because of discontinuity controlled and discontinuity orientation independent mass movements. Almost all studied cut slopes suffer from orientation-independent stability problems with very low stability probabilities. Additionally, the probability of planar and toppling failures is significantly high with respect to the SSPC system. The stability problems along the investigated rock slopes were also verified by field reconnaissance. Remedial measures such as slope re-design and reinforcement at the studied locations should be taken to prevent hazardous events along the highway. On the other hand, the probabilistic approach may be a useful tool during rock slope engineering to overcome numerous uncertainties when probabilistic and analytic results are compared.     

Misconceptions about the Hubble recession law

Almost all astronomers now believe that the Hubble recession law was directly inferred from astronomical observations. It turns out that this common belief is completely false. Those models advocating the idea of an expanding universe are ill-founded on observational grounds. This means that the Hubble recession law is really a working hypothesis. One alternative to the Hubble recession law is the tired-light hypothesis originally proposed by Zwicky (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 15:773, 1929). This hypothesis leads to a universe that is an eternal cosmos continually evolving without beginning or end. Such a universe exists in a dynamical state of virial equilibrium. Observational studies of the redshift-magnitude relation for Type Ia supernovae in distant galaxies might provide the best observational test for a tired-light cosmology. The present study shows that the model Hubble diagram for a tired-light cosmology gives good agreement with the supernovae data for redshifts in the range 0<z<2. This observational test of a static cosmology shows that the real universe is not necessarily undergoing expansion nor acceleration. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Nature of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro

We present a set of rotational lightcurve measurements of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro. Our observations reveal an unambiguous, double-peaked rotational lightcurve with a peak-to-peak variation up to 1.2±0.05 mag and a synodic period of 6.509±0.001 h. From the large flux variation and the overall shape of the lightcurves, we suggest that 3169 Ostro could be a tightly bound binary or a contact binary, similar to the Trojan Asteroid 624 Hektor. A shape model of this system is proposed on the assumption that 3169 Ostro is a Roche binary described by a pair of homogeneous elongated bodies, with a size ratio of 0.87, in hydrostatic equilibrium and in circular synchronous motion around each other. The direction of the spin axis is determined modulo 180° by its J2000 ecliptic coordinates λ₀=50±10°, β₀=±54±5°. The binary interpretation and the pole solution adequately fit the earlier photometric observations made in 1986 and 1988. However, additional supporting lightcurves are highly desirable especially in the next mutual events occurrence of 2008 and 2009 in order to remove the pole ambiguity and to confirm unambiguously the binary nature of 3169 Ostro.     

A comparative study of sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines,vote feature intervals,and logistic regression in landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS

Landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS has been done for part of Uttarakhand region of Himalaya (India) with the objective of comparing the predictive capability of three different machine learning methods, namely sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines (SMOSVM), vote feature intervals (VFI), and logistic regression (LR) for spatial prediction of landslide occurrence. Out of these three methods, the SMOSVM and VFI are state-of-the-art methods for binary classification problems but have not been applied for landslide prediction, whereas the LR is known as a popular method for landslide susceptibility assessment. In the study, a total of 430 historical landslide polygons and 11 landslide affecting factors such as slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, lithology, soil, land cover, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, and rainfall were selected for landslide analysis. For validation and comparison, statistical index-based methods and the receiver operating characteristic curve have been used. Analysis results show that all these models have good performance for landslide spatial prediction but the SMOSVM model has the highest predictive capability, followed by the VFI model, and the LR model, respectively. Thus, SMOSVM is a better model for landslide prediction and can be used for landslide susceptibility mapping of landslide-prone areas.     

Authors' Reply

Abstract— Jull et al. propose an alternative interpretation of our depth vs. ¹⁴C data measured on a peat core from the central Tunguska impact site (Rasmussen et al., 1999). We find that the proposed alternative is untenable.     

Nonstationary pearl pulsations as a signature of magnetospheric disturbances

We analyse long-lasting (several hours) Pc1 pearl pulsations with decreasing, increasing or constant central frequencies. We show that nonstationary pearl events (those with either decreasing or increasing central frequency) are observed simultaneously with increasing auroral magnetic activity at the nightside magnetosphere while the stationary events (constant central frequency) correspond to quiet magnetic conditions. Events with decreasing central frequency are observed mostly in the late morning and daytime whereas events with increasing central frequency appear either early in the morning or in the afternoon. We explain the diurnal distribution of the nonstationary pearl pulsations in terms of proton drifts depending on magnetic activity, and evaluate the magnetospheric electric field based on the variation of the central frequency of pearl pulsations.     

The first field-based descriptions of pumping-induced saltwater intrusion and upconing

Development of the ideas about the equilibrium between freshwater and saline water has received considerable attention in the literature, but little has been written so far about the earliest scientific works about well salinization. Based on a review of the literature from the second half of the 19th century and the early 20th century, this historical note explores how insights into groundwater abstraction and saltwater intrusion developed, and examples of the earliest field studies are provided. Fundamental research was driven by the need for increasing water supply, but the progress of science did not lead to sustainable management practices everywhere. Research outcomes were shared between scientists of different countries, marking the beginning of coastal hydrogeology as a scientific specialization in the first decade of the 20th century.