A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Tracking recorded fires using charcoal morphology from the sedimentary sequence of Prosser Lake, British Columbia (Canada)

Quantitative analyses of variations in morphological features of charcoal were undertaken in a ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment core from Prosser Lake (British Columbia, Canada). Seven morphological types of charcoal were defined by particle shape, major-minor axis ratio, apparent porosity and progradation to unburned material. The distribution of morphotypes and total charcoal abundances were assessed as a proxy for fire events recorded between 1919 and 2000 and to subsequent mechanisms of transportation-sedimentation to lake sediments. Charcoal morphotypes showed distinct relationships to recorded area burned by fires. Fragile charcoal fragments with highly irregular porosity (termed Type M) displayed the strongest correlation to burned area (r² = 0.51; P = 0.0001) and did not produce any false-positive signal for fires recorded within a radius of 20 km around the lake. We infer that high porosity and low density Type M fragments are aerially transported and directly deposited on the lake, and that the fragility of Type M charcoal prevents significant quantities from being secondarily transported and incorporated into the sedimentary record. We propose that charcoal morphology is an important but underutilized technique that can yield important insights into fire type, proximity and transportation-sedimentation processes.     

Middle Weichselian environments on western Yamal Peninsula, Kara Sea based on pollen records

Pollen data from two sections from a coastal cliff on the western Yamal Peninsula (69°43.27′N, 66°48.80′E) document the environmental history during the Karginsky (Middle Weichselian) interstadial. Low pollen concentrations, high amounts of redeposited pollen, and relatively high presence of Artemisia pollen characterize sediments deposited at about 33,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Grass-sedge plant associations with few other herbs occupied the area during the late Karginsky interstadial. Artemisia pollen may indicate rather xerophytic vegetation and disturbed soils in the area. The dominance of redeposited pollen reflects scarce (disturbed) vegetation cover and low pollen productivity. The climate was relatively cold and dry. Sediments dated to 32,400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. contain fewer redeposited pollen and concentration of non-redeposited pollen is significantly higher. Pollen contents indicate the dominance of tundra-like grass-sedge vegetation and more humid conditions. Pollen records dated between 30,100 and 25,100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. also reflect scarce tundra-like vegetation during this interval. The presence of Betula nana and Salix pollen may reflect limited presence of shrub communities. This suggests that the climate was somewhat warmer during the latter part of the interstadial. However, generally the pollen records show that harsh environmental conditions prevailed on the Yamal Peninsula during the Karginsky interstadial.     

The simultaneous use of piles and prestressed anchors in foundation design

The paper presents a simplified design procedure to evaluate the loads in piles and prestressed anchors when simultaneously used in foundations under tension loads and high overturning moments. Although involving some necessary simplifications for the sake of design, the procedure keeps the main features of load transfer from piles and anchors to the surrounding soil. The approximate method has been adopted by the authors in relevant projects in Brazil, whose long term satisfactory performance indicates its appropriate performance. Two practical examples have been selected to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is shown that anchor prestressing plays an important role in limiting tension loads on the piles and controlling foundation eccentricity. The importance of monitoring for replacement of occasional prestress losses to prevent long-term pile overstressing is illustrated.     

Formation of a protoplanetary system through the merging of binary components that are contracting towards the main sequence

We have carried out three-dimensional hydrodynamical modeling of the formation of planets through the merging of a binary system comprised of low-mass (～0.5–1 M_⊙) stars in the stage of contracting towards the main sequence. Under certain conditions, the disruption of the more massive component results in the formation of an expanding disk and extended arm. The fragmentation of this arm leads to the formation of planetary-mass clouds (<5 M _J where M _J is the mass of Jupiter), whose orbits can have semimajor axes of 0.4 to 5 AU and substantial (～0.5) eccentricities.     

Microvariability of line profiles in the spectrum of the star ι Her

We present the results of a search for and analysis of line-profile variations in the spectrum of the star ι Her. The observations were acquired with the 1.8 m telescope of the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory (Republic of Korea) in May–June 2004. We obtained 69 spectra of the star with signal-to-noise ratios ≈300 and a time resolution of 5–7 min. Profile variability was revealed for six lines of HI, HeI, and SiIII, in the central parts of the lines. The variability amplitude is ≈(1–2)% in units of the intensity of the adjacent continuum. Evidence was found for cyclic variations of the lines, with periods from ≈7^h to ≈2.9^d. We conclude that ι Her belongs to the group of slowly pulsating stars.     

A framework for an optimised groundwater monitoring network and aggregated indicators

The implementation of the Water Framework Directive (EU 2000) requires a groundwater quality monitoring. It is used for characterisation of the ‘good’ chemical status of each groundwater body and for the restoration or protection purposes of those bodies already at ‘good’ status. Interpretative aspects are lying in the design of monitoring network and in the way of building global indicators. Attention is given here to the global chemical status of the groundwater bodies and to the role of diffuse pollution, much of which is brought via groundwater to surface water. Monitoring ‘local’ pollution associated with individual sites is not addressed. Groundwater bodies with different contrasted hydrogeology conditions, land use and topography have been considered to establish an approach for choosing an optimised monitoring network. Then, a quality assessment system has been developed and applied for qualifying the general status of each groundwater body. The use of non-dimensional indexes allows us to process with all kinds of chemical parameters in a normalised way and, by means of adequate aggregation rules, to qualify the general quality status of a groundwater body. The obtained diagnostic, even if not fully validated, is closely linked to the pragmatic objectives contained in the EU Water Directive.     

Mineralogy, geochemistry, and Nd isotope composition of the Rainbow hydrothermal field, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Petrological, geochemical, and Nd isotopic analyses have been carried out on rock samples from the Rainbow vent field to assess the evolution of the hydrothermal system. The Rainbow vent field is an ultramafic-hosted hydrothermal system located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge characterized by vigorous high-temperature venting (∼365°C) and unique chemical composition of fluids: high chlorinity, low pH and very high Fe, and rare earth element (REE) contents (Douville et al., Chemical Geology 184:37–48, 2002). Serpentinization has occurred under a low-temperature (<270°C) retrograde regime, later overprinted by a higher temperature sulfide mineralization event. Retrograde serpentinization reactions alone cannot reproduce the reported heat and specific chemical features of Rainbow hydrothermal fluids. The following units were identified within the deposit: (1) nonmineralized serpentinite, (2) mineralized serpentinite—stockwork, (3) steatite, (4) semimassive sulfides, and (5) massive sulfides, which include Cu-rich massive sulfides (up to 28wt% Cu) and Zn-rich massive sulfide chimneys (up to 5wt% Zn). Sulfide mineralization has produced significant changes in the sulfide-bearing rocks including enrichment in transition metals (Cu, Zn, Fe, and Co) and light REE, increase in the Co/Ni ratios comparable to those of mafic Cu-rich volcanic-hosted massive sulfide deposits and different ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotope ratios. Vent fluid chemistry data are indicative of acidic, reducing, and high temperature conditions at the subseafloor reaction zone where fluids undergo phase separation most likely under subcritical conditions (boiling). An explanation for the high chlorinity is not straightforward unless mixing with high salinity brine or direct contribution from a magmatic Cl-rich aqueous fluid is considered. This study adds new data, which, combined with the current knowledge of the Rainbow vent field, brings compelling evidence for the presence, at depth, of a magmatic body, most likely gabbroic, which provides heat and metals to the system. Co/Ni ratios proved to be good tools used to discriminate between rock units, degree of sulfide mineralization, and positioning within the hydrothermal system. Deeper units have Co/Ni <1 and subsurface and surface units have Co/Ni >1.