Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.     

On the Correlation between Convective Plume Updrafts and Downdrafts,Lidar Reflectivity and Depolarization Ratio

We question the correlation between vertical velocity (w) on the one hand and the occurrence of convective plumes in lidar reflectivity (i.e. range corrected backscatter signal Pz ²) and depolarization ratio (Δ) on the other hand in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Thermal vertical motion is directly investigated using vertical velocities measured by a ground-based Doppler lidar operating at 2 μm. This lidar provides also simultaneous measurements of lidar reflectivity. In addition, a second lidar 200 m away provides reflectivities at 0.53 and 1 μm and depolarization ratio at 0.53 μm. The time series from the two lidars are analyzed in terms of linear correlation coefficient (ρ). The main result is that the plume-like structures provided by lidar reflectivity within the CBL as well as the CBL height are not a clear signature of updrafts. It is shown that the lidar reflectivity within the CBL is frequently anti-correlated (ρ (w, Pz ² )) with the vertical velocity. On the contrary, the correlation coefficient between the depolarization ratio and the vertical velocity ρ (w, Δ ) is always positive, showing that the depolarization ratio is a fair tracer of updrafts. The importance of relative humidity on the correlation coefficient is discussed. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Incorporation of a dynamic root distribution into CLM4.5: Evaluation of carbon and water fluxes over the Amazon

Roots are responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients by plants and have the plasticity to dynamically respond to different environmental conditions. However, most land surface models currently prescribe rooting profiles as a function only of vegetation type, with no consideration of the surroundings. In this study, a dynamic rooting scheme, which describes root growth as a compromise between water and nitrogen availability, was incorporated into CLM4.5 with carbon–nitrogen(CN) interactions(CLM4.5-CN) to investigate the effects of a dynamic root distribution on eco-hydrological modeling. Two paired numerical simulations were conducted for the Tapajos National Forest km83(BRSa3) site and the Amazon, one using CLM4.5-CN without the dynamic rooting scheme and the other including the proposed scheme. Simulations for the BRSa3 site showed that inclusion of the dynamic rooting scheme increased the amplitudes and peak values of diurnal gross primary production(GPP) and latent heat flux(LE) for the dry season, and improved the carbon(C) and water cycle modeling by reducing the RMSE of GPP by 0.4 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), net ecosystem exchange by 1.96 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), LE by 5.0 W m~(-2), and soil moisture by 0.03 m~3m~(-3), at the seasonal scale, compared with eddy flux measurements, while having little impact during the wet season. For the Amazon, regional analysis also revealed that vegetation responses(including GPP and LE) to seasonal drought and the severe drought of 2005 were better captured with the dynamic rooting scheme incorporated.     

Analytical solutions for the equations of motion of a space vehicle during the atmospheric re-entry phase on a 2-D trajectory

A practical and important problem encountered during the atmospheric re-entry phase is to determine analytical solutions for the space vehicle dynamical equations of motion. The author proposes new solutions for the equations of trajectory and flight-path angle of the space vehicle during the re-entry phase in Earth’s atmosphere. Explicit analytical solutions for the aerodynamic equations of motion can be effectively applied to investigate and control the rocket flight characteristics. Setting the initial conditions for the speed, re-entering flight-path angle, altitude, atmosphere density, lift and drag coefficients, the nonlinear differential equations of motion are linearized by a proper choice of the re-entry range angles. After integration, the solutions are expressed with the Exponential Integral, and Generalized Exponential Integral functions. Theoretical frameworks for proposed solutions as well as, several numerical examples, are presented.     

Circumstellar dust and circumstellar extinction curves

We have calculated the circumstellar extinction curves produced by dust grains which absorb and scatter the stellar radiation in the shells of pre-main-sequence stars. A Monte Carlo method was used to model the radiative transfer in non-spherical shells. The dependence on the particle size distribution and the dust shell parameters has been examined.The application of the theoretical results to explain the extinction and polarization of the Herbig Be star HD 45677 shows that the dust shell is not disk-like and that very small grains are absent in it.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and SST cooling over the pacific warm pool: A case study for the 2002/03 El Niño event

We investigate an overlooked mechanism—coastal upwelling—for sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the western side of the mean location of the Pacific warm pool (WSWP: 5°S–5°N, 140°E–150°E) prior to El Niño onset. We analyze various observed data such as the TRIangle Trans-Ocean buoy Network (TRITON) moored buoy data, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) data, satellite data and a hindcast experiment output by a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM). We focus on the precondition of the 2002/03 El Niño event, for which many datasets are available. Relatively cool water upwelled along the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG) during December 2001, prior to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event, and then spread out over a wider area to the northeast. Simultaneously, strong west-northerly surface winds occur along the north coast. Heat budget analysis of TRITON buoy data in the WSWP reveals that negative zonal heat advection due to eastward current is the main factor for cooling the mixed layer in the WSWP in contrast to the warming effect of the surface heat flux during the period. This cooling requires a source of colder water to the west. Similar analysis of OGCM outputs also suggests that the upwelled relatively cool water along the PNG north coast, and its northeastward extension to the equatorial region, contributes to cooling of the surface water over the WSWP mainly via negative zonal heat advection. Similar mechanisms are confirmed also for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events by analyses of OGCM outputs and historical SST data. The low SST in the WSWP generated a positive zonal SST gradient together with high SST east of the WSWP. It may contribute to enhancement of the westerly surface wind in this region, leading to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event.     

Field Placement and Evaluation of Stabilized Dredged Material (SDM) from the New York/New Jersey Harbor

Since the 1997 local ban on ocean dumping of dredged sediments, the States of New York and New Jersey have pursued a policy of environmentally sound solutions to the management of dredged material, including beneficial use of stabilized dredged material (SDM) in transportation applications. A pilot study was initiated in 1998 to evaluate the use of SDM in the construction of highway embankments. Utilizing 80,000 cubic yards of dredged material, two embankments were constructed from SDM on a commercial development area adjacent to the Harbor. Geotechnical properties and handling of SDM were evaluated both during and one year post - construction. This article presents the evaluation of the embankments themselves, including constructability and performance. The results demonstrate that SDM satisfies most of the geotechnical criteria for fill construction, except those for durability, requiring proper coverage and protection similar to that provided for fills constructed on cohesive soils. This same characteristic precludes long term stockpiling of SDM prior to final placement, limiting applications to those that have schedules overlapping with dredging projects. Increased costs for the use of SDM can be as high as $8 per cubic yard over traditional fills; however, this cost may be recouped through management fees collected from dredging projects.     

Prediction of ground vibration due to quarry blasting based on gene expression programming: a new model for peak particle velocity prediction

Blasting is a widely used technique for rock fragmentation in opencast mines and tunneling projects. Ground vibration is one of the most environmental effects produced by blasting operation. Therefore, the proper prediction of blast-induced ground vibrations is essential to identify safety area of blasting. This paper presents a predictive model based on gene expression programming (GEP) for estimating ground vibration produced by blasting operations conducted in a granite quarry, Malaysia. To achieve this aim, a total number of 102 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured. Furthermore, the most influential parameters on ground vibration, i.e., burden-to-spacing ratio, hole depth, stemming, powder factor, maximum charge per delay, and the distance from the blast face were considered and utilized to construct the GEP model. In order to show the capability of GEP model in estimating ground vibration, nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) technique was also performed using the same datasets. The results demonstrated that the proposed model is able to predict blast-induced ground vibration more accurately than other developed technique. Coefficient of determination values of 0.914 and 0.874 for training and testing datasets of GEP model, respectively show superiority of this model in predicting ground vibration, while these values were obtained as 0.829 and 0.790 for NLMR model.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.