Simulating future Caspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs

We report on simulations of present-day climate (1961–1990) and future climate conditions (2071–2100, Special Report on Emissions Scenario A2) over the Caspian sea basin with a regional climate model (RCM) nested in time-slice general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We also calculate changes (A2 scenario minus present-day) in Caspian sea level (CSL) in response to changes in the simulated hydrologic budget of the basin. For the present-day run, both the GCM and RCM show a good performance in reproducing the water budget of the basin and the magnitude of multi-decadal changes in CSL. Compared to present-day climate, in the A2 scenario experiment we find an increase in cold season precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation, both over land and over the Caspian sea. We also find a large decrease of CSL in the A2 scenario run compared to the present-day run. This is due to increased evaporation loss from the basin (particularly over the sea) exceeding increased cold season precipitation over the basin. Our results suggest that the CSL might undergo large changes under future climate change, leading to potentially devastating consequences for the economy and environment of the region.     

Ocean tide loading (OTL) displacements from global and local grids: comparisons to GPS estimates over the shelf of Brittany, France

In this paper we examine OTL displacements detected by GPS stations of a dedicated campaign and validate ocean tide models. Our area of study is the continental shelf of Brittany and Cotentin in France. Brittany is one of the few places in the world where tides provoke loading displacements of ∼10–12 cm vertically and a few cm horizontally. Ocean tide models suffer from important discrepancies in this region. Seven global and regional ocean tide models were tested: FES2004 corrected for K2, TPXO.7.0, TPXO.6.2, GOT00.2, CSR4.0, NAO.99b and the most recent regional grids of the North East Atlantic (NEA2004). These gridded amplitudes and phases of ocean tides were convolved in order to get the predicted OTL displacements using two different algorithms. Data over a period of 3.5 months of 8 GPS campaign stations located on the north coast of Brittany are used, in order to evaluate the geographical distribution of the OTL effect. We have modified and implemented new algorithms in our GPS software, GINS 7.1. GPS OTL constituents are estimated based on 1-day batch solutions. We compare the observed GPS OTL constituents of M₂, S₂, N₂ and K₁ waves with the selected ocean tide models on global and regional grids. Large phase-lag and amplitude discrepancies over 20° and 1.5 cm in the vertical direction in the semi-diurnal band of M₂ between predictions and GPS/models are detected in the Bay of Mont St-Michel. From a least squares spectral analysis of the GPS time-series, significant harmonic peaks in the integer multiples of the orbital periods of the GPS satellites are observed, indicating the existence of multipath effects in the GPS OTL constituents. The GPS OTL observations agree best with FES2004, NEA2004, GOT00.2 and CSR4.0 tide models.     

Computational parameter estimation for a maize crop

During a whole growing season, the evolution of the displacement height, d, and roughness length, z ₀, of a maize crop has been estimated by a measurement programme. The results have been used to check different types of existing models to calculate these parameters from canopy characteristics only; a simple geometric model and two matching models have been investigated. A geometric model is based on geometric features of the surface only. After a simple modification, the geometric model gives good results for the displacement height as well as for the roughness length.A matching model, based on gradient-diffusion theory, yields good results for the displacement height. The roughness parameter, however, is overestimated by 17%. By a simple modification, the model results could be improved considerably.A matching model, based on a second-order closure procedure, yields excellent results for the displacement height and good results for the roughness length. But it appears that, when applying this model, the plant density index and plant area density distribution as a function of height must be well known.     

Regional and temporal changes in bivalve diversity off the south coast of Portugal

From 2000 to 2006, a total of 75 bivalve species were identified, varying from 29 (spring 2001) to 54 species (spring 2005) per year. Seasonal tendencies in diversity varied according the year, thus the interpretation of long-term and regional scales is essential before drawing any conclusions in other studies. Richness and diversity consistently decreased with depth and increased with sediment grain size (from low in very coarse sand to high in coarse silt). Diversity decreased progressively from 3 to 16 m depth, thus the harsher shallower environments (due to waves and tidal air exposure) showed greater diversity than the most stable areas. Communities in finer sediments were more diverse than those in coarser sand. Evenness showed patterns opposite to diversity, overall.Diversity and evenness maps (produced with multivariate universal kriging), showed that most geographic areas with greater diversity were farer from river outflows and wastewater treatment plants. Two types of geographic pattern were observed: areas with persistently greater bivalve diversity through time and areas that changed locally from year to year. This spatial analysis can be used to establish priority conservation areas for management purposes, and to analyse the persistency of regional diversity patterns. The area with most habitat heterogeneity (Sotavento) corresponded to greatest diversity.There was a positive relationship between Spisula solida and Chamelea gallina landings and bivalve diversity 2 years and 1 year later, respectively. Possibly, local fisheries, by selectively withdrawing the commercial numerically dominant species from the ecosystem, increased diversity 1 to 2 years later, as the ecological niches of the dominants are quickly filled by several other species thereby creating a more even community. On regional scales, no significant impact was found on long-term bivalve diversity in local fisheries,     

Analysis of a possible sea floor strain measurement system

Abstract

A logical approach to large area sea floor strain measurement is to use a set of precision acoustic transponders interrogated successively from a large number of different positions by a near‐bottom survey vehicle. Limiting errors in such an approach can be segregated into two classes implying two different scales on which averaging should be carried out. First are those arising from individual travel time and vehicle depth measurements. Second are those associated with imperfect knowledge of the sound propagation speed. The first are essentially independent from one measurement to the next; for the second, statistically independent observations must be separated by the order of 100 m. Several thousand observations of successive travel times to individual transponders would thus be smoothed to produce the equivalent of a smaller number (few hundred) of sets of simultaneous range observations, and then these sets would be used to determine the transponder array geometry. Computer simulations using realistic assumptions show that centimeter‐level accuracy can be achieved over areas several kilometers across.     

A climatological data set of temperature and salinity for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Ocean Dynamics - A climatological monthly mean data set for temperature and salinity in the area of the North Sea and Baltic Sea is presented. More than 3.1 million temperature observations (2.9...     

Refined relationship between the position of the fundamental OH stretching and the first overtones for clays

The aim of this paper is to determine a relationship between the wavenumbers of the first OH-stretching overtones (W_2OH) and the wavenumbers of the OH-stretching fundamentals (W_OH) to help to interpret the near-infrared (NIR) spectra. The first overtone (2OH) bands appear at wavenumbers less than twice those of the fundamental bands (OH), due to the anharmonic character of vibrations, X = W_2OH/2 - W_OH, with X being the anharmonicity constant. Talc samples with various crystal chemistries are used to solve the equation and the experimental data are well fitted with X = –85.6 cm^–1. As far as the authors are aware, it is the first time that the anharmonicity constant for the OH-stretching vibrations is determined for phyllosilicates. The anharmonicity constant remains almost unchanged for several types of clay samples. Therefore the relation, established from talc samples because their absorption bands are narrow and their wavenumber range of OH vibrations is wide, can be used for any other clay minerals.     

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.     

The coupling coefficients of pulsation for radiative stellar models

The second order theory of coupling is discussed regarding the radial pulsation of stellar models which are constructed ignoring convection. The formula including the nonadiabatic effect is presented. Numerical values given for model classical cepheids are considerably greater than the adiabatic values.