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921.
922.
923.
Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function.
This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients
from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance
model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns
out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of
eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the
2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance
function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields
with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial
interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the
predefined covariance functions are evaluated. 相似文献
924.
925.
A Competitive Immunoassay for the Determination of the Herbicide Fluazifop in Drinking Water and Groundwater A competitive solid-phase enzyme immunoassay using rabbit polyclonal antibodies was developed for the detection of the herbicide fluazifop [(RS)-2-[4-(5-trifluoromethyl-2-pyridyloxy)phenoxy]propionic acid] in drinking water and groundwater. Present regulatory limits for drinking water in Germany were taken as the critical level. The carrier protein was bovine serum albumin; horseradish peroxidase was used as marker enzyme with 3,3′,5,5′-tetramethylbenzidine as substrate. A high concentration of high-affinity antibodies in the serum, optimization of test conditions (antibody and enzyme tracer concentration, incubation time etc.), and very low cross reactivities to substances of similar structures led to a highly sensitive and specific ELISA with a detection limit below 0.1 μg/L for fluazifop as free acid. On testing the suitability of the assay's use as a screening test with one hundred drinking-water samples, the three samples which had been spiked in the laboratory were recognized as positive with respect to their fluazifop content. Confirmation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry showed the test results of two other samples to be false positive. False negative results did not appear. The concentration was in the detection limit region of 0.1 μg/L. 相似文献
926.
Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:5
Jeffrey T. Payne Andrew W. Wood Alan F. Hamlet Richard N. Palmer Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):233-256
The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff. 相似文献
927.
928.
Estimation of Site Effects in Beijing City 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
— For the realistic modeling of the seismic ground motion in lateral heterogeneous anelastic media, the database of 3-D geophysical structures for Beijing City has been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the City, caused by the 1976 Tangshan and the 1998 Zhangbei earthquakes. The hybrid method, which combines the modal summation and the finite-difference algorithms, is used in the simulation. The modeling of the seismic ground motion, for both the Tangshan and the Zhangbei earthquakes, shows that the thick Quaternary sedimentary cover amplifies the peak values and increases the duration of the seismic ground motion in the northwestern part of the City. Therefore the thickness of the Quaternary sediments in Beijing City is the key factor controling the local ground effects. Four zones are defined on the base of the different thickness of the Quaternary sediments. The response spectra for each zone are computed, indicating that peak spectral values as high as 0.1 g are compatible with past seismicity and can be well exceeded if an event similar to the 1697 Sanhe-Pinggu occurs. 相似文献
929.
— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c0 in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c0 from another faster decaying regime beyond c0. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H0 of an absence of crossover (c0=infinity). When H0 is rejected, we estimate the crossover c0 using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c0 and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c0)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c0 in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude mW=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c0 may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime. 相似文献
930.
Upgrading the Earthquake Catalog of Switzerland (ECOS) included revising the earthquake of 1720. This change has major importance for history and seismology.Although that quake has been the subject of several publications, none was based on critical methods. This re-evaluation of the event is built upon a new and more reliable database established after investigating archives and libraries. Using data from such historical sources, we assigned new site intensities, adopting the criteria established by the European macroseismic scale EMS 98 (Grünthal, 1998).We discovered that the event had been assigned an overestimated intensity, due to interpretation errors in former earthquake catalogs and compilations. We recommend reducing the intensity from I0= VIII to I0= VI (EMS 98). The moment magnitude is given as MW= 4.6. Since the event had been considered the largest for its respective area, downgrading it now will influence the seismic hazard assessment for this region. 相似文献