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911.
The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River. 相似文献
912.
913.
914.
The separation of the influence of nutrients and climate on the varve time-series of baldeggersee, Switzerland 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
The varve data-set from a freeze-core taken in the deepest part of Baldeggersee was subjected to different multivariate statistical
analyses in order to estimate the amount of variance in the varve thickness measures explicable by past climate and by the
trophic state of the lake. A comparison of two different time-periods (1902 to1992 versus 1920 to 1980) revealed that the
lake restoration programme since 1982 has had a significant impact on the formation of the seasonal layers. Results of the
partitioning of the variance in the varve thickness measures showed that about two thirds of the variance are unexplained
by a climate and trophic state model and that trophic state explains 6%, whereas climate accounts for about 28% of the variance
before the effect of lake restoration had a strong impact on the varves. Among the climate parameters the amount of annual
precipitation is a strong predictor for explaining the thickness of both dark layer and total couplet thickness, whereas summer
precipitation is important for the thickness of the light layer. 相似文献
915.
Yu. N. Korenkov V. V. Klimenko M. Förster V. A. Surotkin J. Smilauer 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(12):1362-1374
Near-earth plasma parameters were calculated using a global numerical self-consistent and time-dependent model of the thermosphere, ionosphere and protonosphere (GSM TIP). The model results are compared with experimental data of different origin, mainly EISCAT measurements and simultaneous satellite data (Ne and ion composition). Model runs with varying inputs of auroral FAC distributions, temperature of vibrationally excited nitrogen and photoelectron energy escape fluxes are used to make adjustments to the observations. The satellite data are obtained onboard Active and its subsatellite Magion –2 when they passed nearby the EISCAT station around 0325 and 1540 UT on 31 July 1990 at a height of about 2000 and 2200 km, respectively. A strong geomagnetic disturbance was observed two days before the period under study. Numerical calculations were performed with consideration of vibrationally excited nitrogen molecules for high solar-activity conditions. The results show good agreement between the incoherent-scatter radar measurements (Ne, Te, Ti) and model calculations, taking into account the excited molecular nitrogen reaction rates. The comparison of model results of the thermospheric neutral wind shows finally a good agreement with the HWM93 empirical wind model. 相似文献
916.
S. Klimov S. Romanov E. Amata J. Blecki J. Büchner J. Juchniewicz J. Rustenbach P. Triska L. J. C. Woolliscroft S. Savin Yu. Afanas’yev U. de Angelis U. Auster G. Bellucci A. Best F. Farnik V. Formisano P. Gough R. Grard V. Grushin G. Haerendel V. Ivchenko V. Korepanov H. Lehmann B. Nikutowski M. Nozdrachev S. Orsini M. Parrot A. Petrukovich J. L. Rauch K. Sauer A. Skalsky J. Slominski J. G. Trotignon J. Vojta R. Wronowski 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,15(5):514-527
The plasma-wave experiment ASPI (analysis of spectra of plasma waves and instabilities) on board the INTERBALL spacecraft is a combined wave diagnostics experiment. It performs measurements of the DC and AC magnetic field vector by flux-gate and searchcoil sensors, the DC and AC electric field vector by Langmuir double probes and the plasma current by Langmuir split probe. Preliminary data analysis shows the low noise levels of the sensors and the compatibility of new data with the results of previous missions. During several months of in-orbit operation a rich collection of data was acquired, examples of which at the magnetopause and plasma sheet are presented in second part of the paper. 相似文献
917.
New characteristics of O+ ion velocity distribution functions in a background of atomic oxygen neutrals subjected to intense external electromagnetic forces are presented. The one dimensional (1-D) distribution function along the magnetic field displays a core-halo shape which can be accurately fitted by a two Maxwellian model. The Maxwellian shape of the 1-D distribution function around a polar angle of 21 ± 1° from the magnetic field direction is confirmed, taking into account the accuracy of the Monte Carlo simulations. For the first time, the transition of the O+ 1-D distribution function from a core halo shape along the magnetic field direction to the well-known toroidal shape at large polar angles, through the Maxwellian shape at polar angle of 21 ± 1° is properly explained from a generic functional of the velocity moments at order 2 and 4. 相似文献
918.
919.
920.
Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function.
This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients
from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance
model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns
out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of
eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the
2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance
function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields
with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial
interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the
predefined covariance functions are evaluated. 相似文献