Building a 3D geomodel for water resources management: case study in the Regional Park of the lower courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers (Madrid, Spain)

Water resources management of protected sites requires a powerful tool to analyze the process and changes that are occurring in the environment. This paper describes a 3D geomodel design of the Jarama River Detrital Aquifer located in Madrid (Spain). That hydrogeological unit is included in the “Parque Regional de los Cursos Bajos de los Ríos Manzanares y Jarama” (Regional Park of the Lower Courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers). The goal of this work is to define a method by which a three-dimensional (3D) model can be created with hydrogeologic geometry real of main aquifer, to accomplish an adequate management of the groundwater resources. All data used in this study were integrated in a geographic database: geological and hydrogeological information, geological map (1:25,000), eleven cross-sections, piezometric maps and a digital elevation model. The constructed 3D model of the Jarama Aquifer shows geometric features and spatial distribution and variations of geologic units. Thus, the 3D model allows the assessment of volumes of each unit, the depth and thickness variations of the main aquifer, and the spatial and temporal variations of water tables. From the 3D model, the most suitable areas (in terms of groundwater protection) for managed recharge and mining works have been identified.     

Detection and mapping of burnt areas from time series of MODIS-derived NDVI data in a Mediterranean region

Moderate resolution remote sensing data, as provided by MODIS, can be used to detect and map active or past wildfires from daily records of suitable combinations of reflectance bands. The objective of the present work was to develop and test simple algorithms and variations for automatic or semiautomatic detection of burnt areas from time series data of MODIS biweekly vegetation indices for a Mediterranean region. MODIS-derived NDVI 250m time series data for the Valencia region, East Spain, were subjected to a two-step process for the detection of candidate burnt areas, and the results compared with available fire event records from the Valencia Regional Government. For each pixel and date in the data series, a model was fitted to both the previous and posterior time series data. Combining drops between two consecutive points and 1-year average drops, we used discrepancies or jumps between the pre and post models to identify seed pixels, and then delimitated fire scars for each potential wildfire using an extension algorithm from the seed pixels. The resulting maps of the detected burnt areas showed a very good agreement with the perimeters registered in the database of fire records used as reference. Overall accuracies and indices of agreement were very high, and omission and commission errors were similar or lower than in previous studies that used automatic or semiautomatic fire scar detection based on remote sensing. This supports the effectiveness of the method for detecting and mapping burnt areas in the Mediterranean region.     

Evolution in sea ice from 1978 to 2012

In this paper, the intra-annual and interannual variability of the sea ice is analysed over the period 1979–2012 from the data and images facilitated by the “National Snow and Ice dates Center”. These data are related to the annual average temperature. The annual average of the marine ice surface area (1979–2012) is very similar in both poles, although its temporary evolution is opposed in both hemispheres. In the Arctic Ocean there is an abrupt reduction of the surface area of the ice during this period. As opposed to it, the marine seas surrounding the Antarctic show an increase of the extension of the ice, especially in the last 15 years, with a maximum value in 2012. With respect to the total of the marine ice over the period 1979–2012, there is an overall deficit balance, because the reduction of the Arctic ice is greater than the increase of the Antarctic ice.     

GIS application for regional assessment of seismically induced slope failures in the Sierra Nevada Range,South Spain,along the Padul Fault

Complete rupture of the Padul Fault represents one of the largest plausible earthquakes in the Sierra Nevada Range, one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. We performed a regional assessment of earthquake-triggered slope instabilities in the western part of the range to determine the most likely types of failures from such an earthquake in the region and suggest where such failures have a higher likelihood of occurring. These results are broadly useful for management of regional life-lines and future development. First, a slope-instability inventory of the Sierra Nevada was produced to identify the most common instability types. Subsequently, the Newmark’s sliding rigid-block methodology, implemented in a geographic information system, was used to obtain the distribution of Newmark displacements in the area considering a M _w 6.6 earthquake on the Padul Fault. The Newmark displacements were then compared to the distribution of the inventoried slope instabilities to identify the areas where seismicity could reactivate old slope instabilities or generate new ones, and to identify the involved landslide typology. The most likely seismically induced slope instabilities in the Sierra Nevada are rock falls and rock slides. These types of instabilities could be triggered by Newmark displacements of 2 cm or less.     

Vegetation in western Central Mexico during the last 50 000 years: modern analogs and climate in the Zacapu Basin

The late glacial and the transition towards the Holocene marked a period of significant environmental change at a global scale. In western Central Mexico, few records span beyond the Holocene, and little is known about Pleistocene climatic and environmental variability. Here we report on the pollen record of a composite sequence made of three cores that cover the last 50 ka (thousands of calibrated radiocarbon years before present) in the Zacapu Basin, western Central Mexico (～1970 m asl). The conjunction of modern pollen rain from the area with the composite fossil pollen sequence from cores Cantabria, Cantabria 1 and CEMCA Point‐1 provided a detailed history of the vegetation of the area. Recognition of modern environmental patterns through individual modern pollen taxa proved difficult, but multivariate analysis separated different vegetation types. No‐modern‐analog communities relative to the modern vegetation cover of the area were evident, especially during periods of drought. Apparently, summer precipitation was significant before 40 ka and after the deglaciation. However, this moisture source declined from ～40 to 10 ka because tradewinds from the Gulf of Mexico were blocked by the eastern mountains of Central Mexico as a result of lower temperatures. By contrast, westerly and northerly winds were enhanced by maximum ice cover from ～19 to 17 ka, providing abundant winter precipitation and therefore preventing extreme drought in the area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment bioavailable organic matter,deposition rates and mixing intensity in the Setúbal–Lisbon canyon and adjacent slope (Western Iberian Margin)

The role of the Setúbal–Lisbon canyon in accumulation and transport of labile organic matter from the coastal sea and ocean surface water towards the deep sea was assessed by investigating the distribution of organic matter of different quality in sedimentary aggregates and surface sediments of the canyon and adjacent slopes. Total hydrolysable amino acids (THAA) and organic carbon (Corg) were measured from aggregates, and contents of Corg, chlorophyll a (chl a), phaeopigments (phaeo), chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE) from sediments. As indices of organic matter (OM) quality THAA:Corg, degradation index (DI), chl a:phaeo, chl a:Corg and C:N ratio were determined. Sediment profiles of chl a and the isotope 210 of lead (²¹⁰Pb) were used as tracers in a transport model to estimate deposition rates and background levels of the tracers, and sediment mixing rates (Db). Whereas bulk Corg contents of canyon and slope sediments were practically similar at all depths, higher contents of THAA, chl a and CPE, as well as higher THAA:Corg, DI and chl a:Corg, in aggregates and sediments from the upper reaches of the canyon indicate that labile organic matter accumulates in the upper canyon. This is confirmed by higher chl a and ²¹⁰Pb deposition and Db calculated from the model. Hence, the Setúbal–Lisbon canyon, specially the upper region, acts as a natural trap of organic matter that is transported to the region via lateral transport and vertical settling from primary productivity. Organic matter might be further transported in downward canyon direction via rebound processes. The chl a and ²¹⁰Pb profiles reveal active sediment mixing by physical processes and/or animal reworking.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Instruments, Detectors and the Future of Astronomy with Large Ground Based Telescopes

Results of a survey of instrumentation and detector systems, either currently deployed or planned for use at telescopes larger than 3.5 m, in ground based observatories world-wide, are presented. This survey revealed a number of instrumentation design trends at optical, near, and mid-infrared wavelengths. Some of the most prominent trends include the development of vastly larger optical detector systems (> 10⁹ pixels) than anything built to date, and the frequent use of mosaics of near-infrared detectors – something that was quite rare only a decade ago in astronomy. Some future science applications for detectors are then explored, in an attempt to build a bridge between current detectors and what will be needed to support the research ambitions of astronomers in the future.