Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons,Switzerland

In the field of natural hazards, risk is usually expressed as a function of probability of occurrence and damage potential. A key factor in the development of avalanche risk is a change in damage potential. In this paper, the development of damage potential and losses is analysed for settlements in the canton of Grisons, Switzerland for the period between 1950 and 2000. The spatial development patterns of the residential population and the insured value of buildings on a municipal level are described. These patterns are overlain by an accentuated occurrence of avalanches that caused damage to buildings. Extensive results from areas threatened by avalanches in the municipality of Davos are presented. Although the natural avalanche activity remained constant during the last decades, the total amount of damage decreased due to mitigation measures. The example of the municipality of Davos shows that mitigation measures are able to compensate an increase of tangible assets which leads to a reduced avalanche risk compared to earlier decades.     

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Baltic Sea Ice

A new parametrization for the surface energy balance of urban areas is presented. It is shown that this new method can represent some of the important urban phenomena, such as an urban heat island and the occurrence of a near-neutral nocturnal boundary layer with associated positive turbulent heat fluxes, unlike the traditional method for representing urban areas within operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The basis of the new parametrization is simple and can be applied easily within an operational NWP model. Also, it has no additional computational expense compared to the traditional scheme and is hence applicable for operational forecasting requirements. The results show that the errors for London within the Met Office operational mesoscale model have been significantly reduced since the new scheme was introduced. The bias and root-mean-square (rms) errors have been approximately halved, with the rms error now similar to the model as a whole. The results also show that a seasonal cycle still exists in the model errors, but it is suggested that this may be caused by anthropogenic heat sources that are neglected in the urban scheme.The British Crowns right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Monitoring of Air Pollution in Latvia Between 1990 and 2000 Using Moss

The concentrations of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, V, Zn) in feather moss were estimated in national surveys in Latvia in 1990, 1995 and 2000. Hylocomium splendens was used as a biomonitor in 1990 and Pleurozium schreberi in the latter two years. Maps of the distributions of the metals in Latvia have been produced. The paper discusses the reasons underlying the distributions and also the temporal trends during the last ten years.     

Changes in Element Concentrations in Moss Segments After Cross-Transplanting Between a Polluted and Non-Polluted Site

To test the ability of Hylocomium splendens segments to retain absorbed heavy metals (Fe, V and Pb) and some physiological elements (Ca, Mg and K) over a period of some years, moss turf was cross-transplanted between polluted and background sites. Thereby it was possible to determine how quickly the concentrations in moss can reach chemical equilibrium with the atmospheric inputs. At a particular site (background or polluted), the physiological elements in transplanted material quickly reached the levels in the non-transplanted moss. For the heavy metals, the concentrations remained stable over 3 years in moss cross-transplanted from a polluted to a background site. There appeared to be inherent differences between moss at the background and polluted sites in the ability to absorb and accumulate heavy metals.     

On the origin of tunnel valleys of the Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet; Michigan,USA

Tunnel valleys are common throughout the terrain of the Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in southern Michigan. The set of valleys described in this paper is regularly spaced in a radial pattern behind the Kalamazoo Moraine, an ice‐marginal position formed during retreat from the Last Glacial Maximum. These valleys are divided into proximal and distal groups lying north and south, respectively, of a major river valley that cross‐cuts the tunnel valleys at right angles. Based on a series of rotasonic borings and core analysis, the proximal valleys are shallow, contain minimal sediment fill, and overlie fine‐grained diamicton and glaciolacustrine sediment, whereas the distal valleys are deeply incised into the substrate and are partially filled with coarse sediment. The distal valleys terminate within a broad zone of high‐relief, hummocky topography representing stagnation and collapse behind the Kalamazoo ice margin. The proximal valleys occur within a more subdued landscape located farther from the ice margin. Although some elements of existing genetic models are consistent with these valleys, none appears to be completely compatible with their stratigraphy and morphology. Initial incision of the valleys could have involved short‐lived moderate‐ to high‐discharge flows, followed by deposition during or after the events. The deep incision and thick, coarse sediment in distal valleys in the stagnant marginal zone probably involved supraglacial meltwater draining to the bed as the margin downwasted. Fining‐upward eskers inset into the valleys were formed by flows of declining energy in small late‐stage conduits.     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

Two‐dimensional finite element analysis of gravitational and lateral‐driven deformation in sedimentary basins

The paper deals with the modeling of some aspects, such as the formulation of constitutive equations for sediment material or finite element approach for basin analysis, related to mechanical compaction in sedimentary basins. In addition to compaction due to gravity forces and pore‐pressure dissipation, particular emphasis is given to the study of deformation induced by tectonic sequences. The numerical model relies upon the implementation of a comprehensive constitutive model for the sediment material formulated within the framework of finite poroplasticity. The theoretical model accounts for both hydromechanical and elasticity–plasticity coupling due to the effects of irreversible large strains. From the numerical viewpoint, a finite element procedure specifically devised for dealing with sedimentary basins as open systems allows to simulate within a two‐dimensional setting the process of sediment accretion or erosion. Several basin simulations are presented. The main objective is to analyze the behavior of a sedimentary basin during the different phases of its life cycle: accretion phase, pore‐pressure dissipation phase and compressive/extensional tectonic motions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.