Seasonal forecasts in the Sahel region: the use of rainfall-based predictive variables

In the Sahel region, seasonal predictions are crucial to alleviate the impacts of climate variability on populations' livelihoods. Agricultural planning (e.g., decisions about sowing date, fertilizer application date, and choice of crop or cultivar) is based on empirical predictive indices whose accuracy to date has not been scientifically proven. This paper attempts to statistically test whether the pattern of rainfall distribution over the May–July period contributes to predicting the real onset date and the nature (wet or dry) of the rainy season, as farmers believe. To that end, we considered historical records of daily rainfall from 51 stations spanning the period 1920–2008 and the different agro-climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We performed (1) principal component analysis to identify climatic zones, based on the patterns of intra-seasonal rainfall, (2) and linear discriminant analysis to find the best rainfall-based variables to distinguish between real and false onset dates of the rainy season, and between wet and dry seasons in each climatic zone. A total of nine climatic zones were identified in each of which, based on rainfall records from May to July, we derived linear discriminant functions to correctly predict the nature of a potential onset date of the rainy season (real or false) and that of the rainy season (dry or wet) in at least three cases out of five. These functions should contribute to alleviating the negative impacts of climate variability in the different climatic zones of Burkina Faso.     

Hydrological behaviour and modelling of a volcanic tropical cultivated catchment

The hydrological behaviour of the cultivated Féfé catchment (17·8 ha) on the tropical volcanic island of Guadeloupe was studied to identify flow paths, to quantify water fluxes, and finally, to build a lumped model to simulate discharge and piezometer levels. The approach combined two steps, an experimental step and a modelling step, which covered two time scales, the annual and the storm event scale. The hydrological measurements were conducted over 2 years. The Féfé catchment is characterized by heavy rainfall (4229 mm year^?1) on permeable Andosols; the results showed that underground flow paths involved two overlapping aquifers, and that the annual water balance in 2003 was shared among outflows of the deep aquifer (42%), evapotranspiration (31%), and streamflow (27%). On the event scale, the surface runoff coefficient ranges between 6·2% and 24·4% depending on antecedent dry or wet moisture conditions. Hortonian overland flow predominated over subsurface and saturation overland flow processes. Recharge of the shallow aquifer is mainly governed by a constant infiltration capacity of the Andosols with depth in the vadose zone. Outflows of this shallow aquifer were the baseflow of the main stream and the recharge of the deep aquifer. Volcanic deposits at Féfé promoted the underground flow path, and cultivated areas seemed to explain the high stormflow values relative to other tropical small catchments under rain forest. A conceptual lumped model integrating runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and fluctuations of the two overlapping aquifers was developed. The model has six parameters and was calibrated and validated on the hydrograph at the outlet and on the two piezometers of the shallow and the deep aquifers. The results show fair to good agreement between measured and simulated variables, and consequently, the model was consistent with the main hydrological processes observed from experimental results in wet conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A-type volcanics in Central Eastern Sinai, Egypt

Alkaline rhyolitic and minor trachytic volcanics were erupted 580–530 Ma ago. They occur with their A-type intrusive equivalents in Sinai, southern Negev and southwestern Jordan. At Taba-Nuweiba district, these volcanics outcrop in three areas, namely, Wadi El-Mahash, Wadi Khileifiya and Gebel El-Homra. Mineralogically, they comprise alkali feldspars, iron-rich biotite and arfvedsonite together with rare ferro-eckermannite. Geochemically, the older rhyolitic volcanics are highly evolved, enriched in HFSE including REE and depleted in Ca, Mg, Sr and Eu. The rhyolitic rocks of Wadi El-Mahash and Gebel El-Homra are enriched in K₂O content (5.3–10.1 wt.%) and depleted in Na₂O content (0.08–2.97 wt.%), while the rhyolites of Wadi Khileifiya have normal contents of alkalis. Their REE patterns are uniform, parallel to subparallel, fractionated [(La/Yb)_n = 5.4] and show prominent negative Eu-anomalies. They are classified as alkali rhyolites with minor comendites. The younger volcanics are classified as trachyandesite and quartz trachyte (56.6–62.9 wt.% SiO₂). Both older and younger volcanics represent two separate magmatic suites. The overall mineralogical and chemical characteristics of these volcanics are consistent with within plate tectonic setting. It is suggested that partial melting of crustal rocks yielded the source magma. Lithospheric extension and crustal rupture occurred prior to the eruption of these volcanics. The rather thin continental crust (35 km) as well as the continental upheaval and extensive erosion that preceded their emplacement favoured pressure release and increasing mantle contribution. The volatiles of the upper mantle were important agents for heat transfer, and sufficient for the anatexis of the crustal rocks. A petrogenetic hypothesis is proposed for the genesis of the recorded potassic and ultrapotassic rhyolitic rocks through the action of dissolved volatiles and their accumulation in the uppermost part of the magma chamber.     

Algorithms for solving the diffusive wave flood routing equation

Generally, the diffusive wave equation, obtained by neglecting the acceleration terms in the Saint-Venant equations, is used in flood routing in rivers. Methods based on the finite-difference discretization techniques are often used to calculate discharges at each time step. A modified form of the diffusive wave equation has been developed and new resolution algorithms proposed which are better adapted to flood routing along a complex river network. The two parameters of the equation, celerity and diffusivity, can then be taken as functions of the discharge. The resolution algorithm allows the use of any distribution of lateral inflow in space and time. The accuracy of the new algorithms were compared with a traditional algorithm by numerical experimentation. Special attention was given to the instability caused by the inflow signal which constitutes the upstream boundary condition. For the fully diffusive wave flood routing problem, all three algorithms tested gave good results. The results also indicate that the efficiency of the new algorithms could be significantly improved if the position of the x-axis is modified by rotation. The new algorithms were applied to flood routing simulation over the Gardon d'Anduze catchment (542 km²) in southern France.     

Analysis of hydrobiological pattern in the Bizerte lagoon (Tunisia)

This study deals with the use of a multivariate analysis method in order to understand the functioning of the Bizerte lagoon ecosystem. A set of hydrobiological parameters was collected during 10 monthly campaigns in 2004. A variant of the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) technique is used to examine hydrobiological variability modes in this lagoon. The permanent features characterising the lagoon are obtained by applying the EOF technique to data after removing the annual cycle. Two major modes were obtained. The first one shows a contrast between the northern sector of the lagoon, influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, and the southern one influenced by continental waters. This mode is mostly prominent for temperature and salinity. The second mode shows a contrast between shallow waters along the coastal zones and the deep central area of the lagoon. This contrast is more pronounced towards the southwestern edge of the lagoon, a region of important freshwater input from the Tinja channel, which drifts towards the downstream area of Menzel Bourguiba. This second mode may also correspond to northward water circulation under southerly wind blowing frequently in summer. The spatial and temporal variability in the lagoon is highlighted by applying the EOF to the raw data without removing the annual cycle. A weight series is obtained for each variable by extracting the corresponding data and then projecting them on the corresponding eigenvector. Using this technique, only one mode was found dominant with more than 52% of the total variance. It was also found that the north–south contrast of temperature, salinity and phosphorous and the coast-centre contrast of Chlorophyll a are enhanced in summer. Other variables such as ammonia and nitrate also show significant annual cycles but with local patterns.     

A hydrologic regression sediment-yield model for two ungaged watershed outlet stations in Africa

A hydrologic regression sediment-yield model was established to determine the relationship between water discharge and suspended sediment discharge at the Blue Nile and the Atbara River outlet stations during the flood season. The model consisted of two main submodels: (1) a suspended sediment discharge model, which was used to determine suspended sediment discharge for each basin outlet; and (2) a sediment rating model, which related water discharge and suspended sediment discharge for each outlet station. Due to the absence of suspended sediment concentration measurements at or near the outlet stations, a minimum norm solution, which is based on the minimization of the unknowns rather than the residuals, was used to determine the suspended sediment discharges at the stations. In addition, the sediment rating submodel was regressed by using an observation equations procedure. Verification analyses on the model were carried out and the mean percentage errors were found to be +12.59 and –12.39, respectively, for the Blue Nile and Atbara. The hydrologic regression model was found to be most sensitive to the relative weight matrix, moderately sensitive to the mean water discharge ratio, and slightly sensitive to the concentration variation along the River Nile's course.     

Effect of phosphatation and calcination on the environmental behaviour of sediments

Dredging operations produce considerable quantities of materials, to be managed and this opens an opportunity for valorization in civil engineering. However, the contamination of the dredged sediments has become a major problem to solve. The major contaminants are heavy metals and organic compounds. This study focuses on the use of phosphoric acid (H3PO4) to stabilize heavy metals from sediments and destroy organic matter by calcination at 650 °C with a goal of using sediments in roadworks. Several studies have been conducted in this eld. The stabilized materials obtained have been used in civil engineering. The main purpose of this work is to discuss the environmental behavior of marine sediment treated by phosphatation and calcination. Two types of phosphoric acids were used. The pH dependence leaching test has been used as the basic characterization to evaluate the effect of the type of phosphoric acid on the metals behavior in a valorization scenario. The standard leaching test and the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) were conducted as compliance tests. In regards of the obtained results, the environmental assessment has also shown a reduction in the availability of targeted heavy metals in alkaline environment whatever the type of acid used for treatment. This opens opportunities for co-valorization.     

MHYDAS‐Erosion: a distributed single‐storm water erosion model for agricultural catchments

In this paper, we present MHYDAS‐Erosion, a dynamic and distributed single‐storm water erosion model developed as a module of the existing hydrological MHYDAS model. As with many catchment erosion models, MHYDAS‐Erosion is able to simulate sediment transport, erosion and deposition by rill and interrill processes. Its originality stems from its capacity to integrate the impact of land management practices (LMP) as key elements controlling the sedimentological connectivity in agricultural catchments. To this end, the water‐sediment pathways are first determined by a specific process‐oriented procedure defined and controlled by the user, which makes the integration of LMP easier. The LMP dynamic behaviours are then integrated into the model as a time‐dependent function of hydrological variables and LMP characteristics. The first version of the model was implemented for vegetative filters and tested using water and sediment discharge measurements at three nested scales of a densely instrumented catchment (Roujan, OMERE Observatory, southern France). The results of discharge and soil loss for simulated rainfall events have been found to acceptably compare with available data. The average R² values for water and sediment discharge are 0·82 and 0·83, respectively. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the proportion of LMP was assessed for a single rain event by considering three scenarios of the Roujan catchment management with vegetative filters: 0% (Scenario 1), 18% (Scenario 2, real case) and 100% (Scenario 3). Compared to Scenario 2 (real case), soil losses decreased for Scenario 3 by 65% on the agricultural plot scale, 62% on the sub‐catchment scale and 45% at the outlet of the catchment and increased for Scenario 1 by 0% on the plot scale, 26% on the sub‐catchment scale and 18% at the outlet of the catchment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.